The term structure as a predictor of real economic growth: a general equilibrium approach

Abstract

Consistent empirical evidence has recently been brought up about the forecasting ability of the term estructure of nominal interes rates, relative to future economic activity. However, there has not been chch work that would check whether that is a robust property of general equilibrium asset pricing models. We present a theoretical economy, with real and nominal assets issued at different maturities, in which the nominal term estructure has, in fact, forecasting power for future real growth. That information content goes beyond the one contained in short-term rates or in monetary policy variables.