Casas, Agustín
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Casas
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Agustín
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Economía
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Publication Open Access How influential is ballot design in elections?(Taylor & Francis, 2020) Casas, Agustín; Díaz, Guillermo; Mavridis, Christos; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEWe exploit an original dataset from a referendum in Peru to study the influence of voting “arrangements” on electoral outcomes. The relative importance of these arrangements (e.g. ballot design) with respect to the fundamentals (e.g. ideology, candidates’ quality) has not been measured. After controlling for a comprehensive set of politicians’ characteristics, we estimate unbiased ballot order effects making use of the within party variation in outcomes. We estimate a non-linear proba-bility model and we create counterfactuals to conclude that ballot design not only may have changed the electoral results but also has a greater importance than candidates’ ideology, education, experience and party affiliation.Publication Open Access Technological change, campaign spending and polarization(Elsevier, 2022) Balart, Pau; Casas, Agustín; Troumpounis, Orestis; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEWe present a model of electoral competition with endogenous platforms and campaign spending where the division of voters between impressionable and ideological is also endogenous and depends on parties’ strategic platform choices. Our approach results in a tractable model that provides interesting compara- tive statics on the effect of recent technological advancements. For instance, we can accommodate a new justification behind the well-documented simultaneous increase in campaign spending and polarization: an increase in the effectiveness of electoral advertising, or a decrease in the electorate’s political aware- ness, surely increases polarization and may also increase campaign spending.Publication Open Access Rara avis: Latin American populism in the 21st century(Elsevier, 2021) Campos, Luciano; Casas, Agustín; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBESince the beginning of the 21st century, many Latin American countries have been ruled by governments characterized as populist (the so-called new Latin American Left). We focus on the macroeconomic implications of the policies adopted by these governments (instead of their leaders’ rhetoric) and we investigate to what extent this characterization holds. In particular, we focus on their wage policies by doing a Structural Vector Autoregressive analysis and assuming that populist shocks have no long-run effects on real wages. This identification implies that populist leaders prioritize redistribution through nominal wages disregarding the evolution of productivity. The results indicate that economic populism is not as widespread as previously thought. Instead, our approach leads to more nuanced results: while we find that there is populism in Argentina, the results for Brazil, Bolivia and Ecuador show only sporadic populist events. In the remaining countries, we do not find persistent economic populism.