Person:
Muñoz Carpena, Rafael

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Muñoz Carpena

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Rafael

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Ingeniería

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0000-0003-2838-1514

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811780

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Now showing 1 - 4 of 4
  • PublicationOpen Access
    Demonstrating correspondence between decision-support models and dynamics of real-world environmental systems
    (Elsevier, 2016) Huffaker, Ray; Muñoz Carpena, Rafael; Campo-Bescós, Miguel; Southworth, Jane; Proyectos e Ingeniería Rural; Landa Ingeniaritza eta Proiektuak
    There are increasing calls to audit decision-support models used for environmental policy to ensure that they correspond with the reality facing policy makers. Modelers can establish correspondence by providing empirical evidence of real-world behavior that their models skillfully simulate. Since real-world behavior—especially in environmental systems—is often complex, credibly modeling underlying dynamics is essential. We present a pre-modeling diagnostic framework based on Nonlinear Time Series (NLTS) methods for reconstructing real-world environmental dynamics from observed data. The framework is illustrated with a case study of saltwater intrusion into coastal wetlands in Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. We propose that environmental modelers test for systematic dynamic behavior in observed data before resorting to conventional stochastic exploratory approaches unable to detect this valuable information. Reconstructed data dynamics can be used, along with other expert information, as a rigorous benchmark to guide specification and testing of environmental decision-support models corresponding with real-world behavior.
  • PublicationOpen Access
    Watering or buffering? Runoff and sediment pollution control from furrow irrigated fields in arid environments
    (Elsevier, 2015) Campo-Bescós, Miguel; Muñoz Carpena, Rafael; Kiker, Gregory A.; Bodah, Brian W.; Ullman, Jeffrey L.; Proyectos e Ingeniería Rural; Landa Ingeniaritza eta Proiektuak
    Surface irrigated agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions contributes to downstream environmental degradation. Changes in irrigation system operational scenarios (ISOS) can represent an economic alternative to reduce surface runoff impacts. At the same time the use of vegetative filter strips (VFS) can have a positive impact on the ecological health of rural landscapes by reducing erosion, improving water quality, increasing biodiversity, and expanding wildlife habitat. The goal of this paper is, using a combination of field data and mechanistic modeling results, to evaluate and compare the spatial effectiveness of improvements in ISOS and introduction of VFS to reduce surface runoff pollution in the semi-arid/arid furrow irrigation agroecosystem that exceeds current regulatory turbidity limits (25 NTU). Five main factor interactions were studied: four soil textures, two field slopes, three ISOS, six filter vegetation types, and ten filter lengths. Slope and runoff volume were identified as the two main drivers of sediment export from furrows. Shifting from current ISOS to less water consumptive irrigation practices reduce runoff in addition to sediment delivery to comply with environmental regulations. The implementation of 3 to 9 m vegetative buffers on experimental parcels were found to mitigate sediment delivery (greater than 90% sediment reduction) on tail drainage ditches but had limited effect in the reduction of runoff flow that can transport other dissolved pollutants. These findings were insensitive to filter vegetation type. Thus, introduction of improved ISOS is desirable while VFS may be targeted to specific hot spots within the irrigation district. This study shows that the adoption of dense vegetation buffers in vulnerable semi-arid irrigated regions can be effective to mitigate agricultural impacts and provide environmental protection. However, it should not be adopted as an alternative to proper on-site irrigation practices, rather as a complementary off-site pollution control practice.
  • PublicationOpen Access
    Highway paving in the southwestern Amazon alters long-term trends and drivers of regional vegetation dynamics
    (Elsevier, 2018) Klarenberg, Geraldine; Muñoz Carpena, Rafael; Campo-Bescós, Miguel; Perz, Steve G.; Ingeniería; Ingeniaritza
    Infrastructure development, specifically road paving, contributes socio-economic benefits to society worldwide. However, detrimental environmental effects of road paving have been documented, most notably increased deforestation. Beyond deforestation, we hypothesize that road paving introduces “unseen” regional scale effects on forests, due to changes to vegetation dynamics. To test this hypothesis, we focus on the tri-national frontier in the southwestern Amazon that has been subject to construction of the Inter-Oceanic Highway (IOH) between 1987 and 2010. We use a long-term remotely sensed vegetation index as a proxy for vegetation dynamics and combine these with field-based socio-ecological data and biophysical data from global datasets. We find 4 areas of shared vegetation dynamics associated with increasing extent of road paving. Applying Dynamic Factor Analysis, an exploratory dimension-reduction time series analysis technique, we identify common trends and covariates in each area. Common trends, indicating underlying unexplained effects, become relatively less important as paving increases, and covariates increase in importance. The common trends are dominated by lower frequency signals possibly embodying long-term climate variability. Human-related covariates become more important in explaining vegetation dynamics as road paving extent increases, particularly family density and travel time to market. Natural covariates such as minimum temperature and soil moisture become less important. The change in vegetation dynamics identified in this study indicates a possible change in ecosystem services along the disturbance gradient. While this study does not include all potential factors controlling dynamics and disturbance of vegetation in the region, it offers important insights for management and mitigation of effects of road paving projects. Infrastructure planning initiatives should make provisions for more detailed vegetation monitoring after road completion, with a broader focus than just deforestation. The study highlights the need to mitigate population-driven pressures on vegetation like family density and access to new markets.
  • PublicationOpen Access
    Hydrological records can be used to reconstruct the resilience of watersheds to climatic extremes
    (Nature Research, 2024) Huffaker, Ray; Campo-Bescós, Miguel; Luquin Oroz, Eduardo Adrián; Casalí Sarasíbar, Javier; Muñoz Carpena, Rafael; Institute on Innovation and Sustainable Development in Food Chain - ISFOOD
    Hydrologic resilience modeling is used in public watershed management to assess watershed ability to supply life-supporting ecoservices under extreme climatic and environmental conditions. Literature surveys criticize resilience models for failing to capture watershed dynamics and undergo adequate testing. Both shortcomings compromise their ability to provide management options reliably protecting water security under real-world conditions. We formulate an empirical protocol to establish real-world correspondence. The protocol applies empirical nonlinear dynamics to reconstruct hydrologic dynamics from watershed records, and analyze the response of reconstructed dynamics to extreme regional climatic conditions. We devise an AI-based early-warning system to forecast (out-of-sample) reconstructed hydrologic resilience dynamics. Application to the La Tejería (Spain) experimental watershed finds it to be a low dimensional nonlinear deterministic dynamic system responding to internal stressors by irregularly oscillating along a watershed attractor. Reconstructed and forecasted hydrologic resilience behavior faithfully captures monthly wet-cold/dry-warm weather patterns characterizing the Mediterranean region.