Casares Polo, Miguel
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Casares Polo
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Miguel
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Economía
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INARBE. Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics
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- Publications
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Publication Open Access Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach(2009) Casares Polo, Miguel; Moreno Pérez, Antonio; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; EkonomiaErceg, Henderson and Levin (2000, Journal of Monetary Economics) introduce sticky wages in a New-Keynesian general-equilibrium model. Alternatively, it is shown here how wage stickiness may bring unemployment fluctuations into a New-Keynesian model. Using Bayesian econometric techniques, both models are estimated with U.S. quarterly data of the Great Moderation. Estimation results are similar and provide a good empirical fit with the crucial difference that our proposal delivers unemployment fluctuations. Thus, second-moment statistics of U.S. unemployment are replicated reasonably well in our proposed New-Keynesian model with sticky wages. In the welfare analysis, the cost of cyclical fluctuations during the Great Moderation is estimated at 0.60% of steady-state consumption.Publication Open Access An estimated new-Keynesian model with unemployment as excess supply of labor(2010) Casares Polo, Miguel; Moreno Pérez, Antonio; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; EkonomiaAs one alternative to search frictions, wage stickiness is introduced in a New-Keynesian model to generate endogenous unemployment fluctuations due to mismatches between labor supply and labor demand. The effects on an estimated New-Keynesian model for the U.S. economy are: i) the Calvo-type probability on wage stickiness rises, ii) the labor supply elasticity falls, iii) the implied second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate provide a reasonable match with those observed in the data, and iv) wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fluctuations.Publication Open Access Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach(Springer, 2012) Casares Polo, Miguel; Moreno Pérez, Antonio; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; EkonomiaErceg et al. (J Monet Econ 46:281–313, 2000) introduce sticky wages in a New-Keynesian general-equilibrium model. Alternatively, it is shown here how wage stickiness may bring unemployment fluctuations into a New-Keynesian model. Using a Bayesian econometric approach, bothmodels are estimated with US quarterly data of the Great Moderation. Estimation results are similar in the two models and both provide a good empirical fit, with the crucial difference that our model delivers unemployment fluctuations. Thus, second-moment statistics of the US rate of unemployment are replicated reasonably well in our proposed New-Keynesian model with sticky wages. Demand-side shocks play a more important role than technology innovations or cost-push shock in explaining both output and unemployment fluctuations. In the welfare analysis, the cost of cyclical fluctuations during the Great Moderation is estimated at 0.60% of steady-state consumption.