Casares Polo, Miguel

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https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/48813

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Casares Polo

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Miguel

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Economía

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INARBE. Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics

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0000-0002-3672-4196

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88580

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2468

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2010 - 20112
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Author: Vázquez, Jesús × Subject: Business cycles ×

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Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
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    PublicationOpen Access
    An estimated new-Keynesian model with unemployment as excess supply of labor
    (2010) Casares Polo, Miguel; Moreno Pérez, Antonio; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; Ekonomia
    As one alternative to search frictions, wage stickiness is introduced in a New-Keynesian model to generate endogenous unemployment fluctuations due to mismatches between labor supply and labor demand. The effects on an estimated New-Keynesian model for the U.S. economy are: i) the Calvo-type probability on wage stickiness rises, ii) the labor supply elasticity falls, iii) the implied second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate provide a reasonable match with those observed in the data, and iv) wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fluctuations.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Data revisions in the estimation of DSGE models
    (2011) Casares Polo, Miguel; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; Ekonomia
    Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model that distinguishes real-time data from final data. Both the consumption habit formation and the price indexation to lagged inflation fall significantly in the estimation. The model also shows that revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. Finally, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition.