Casares Polo, Miguel

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https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/48813

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Casares Polo

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Miguel

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Economía

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INARBE. Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics

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0000-0002-3672-4196

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88580

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2468

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2011 - 20162
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Author: Vázquez, Jesús × Subject: DSGE models ×

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Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Why are labor markets in Spain and Germany so different?
    (2016) Casares Polo, Miguel; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; Ekonomia
    The volatility of unemployment fluctuations has been about 3 times higher in Spain than in Germany over the recent business cycles (1996-2013). In contrast, fluctuations of the rate of wage inflation were significantly more volatile in Germany than in Spain. We estimate a New-Keynesian model and find several explanatory factors: wage rigidity has been higher in Spain, the labor force has been more elastic in Germany than in Spain, large and persistent shocks augmenting the labor force have been estimated for Spain whereas in Germany there have been substantial shocks reducing the intensity of hours per worker, and the ECB’s policy design brought monetary shocks with much greater influence to the Spanish unemployment.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Data revisions in the estimation of DSGE models
    (2011) Casares Polo, Miguel; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; Ekonomia
    Revisions of US macroeconomic data are not white-noise. They are persistent, correlated with real-time data, and with high variability (around 80% of volatility observed in US real-time data). Their business cycle effects are examined in an estimated DSGE model that distinguishes real-time data from final data. Both the consumption habit formation and the price indexation to lagged inflation fall significantly in the estimation. The model also shows that revision shocks of both output and inflation are expansionary because they occur when real-time published data are too low and the Fed reacts by cutting interest rates. Consumption revisions, by contrast, are countercyclical as consumption habits mirror the observed reduction in real-time consumption. Finally, revisions of the three variables explain 9.3% of changes of output in its long-run variance decomposition.