Open Access
Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach
(2009) Casares Polo, Miguel; Moreno Pérez, Antonio; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; Ekonomia
Erceg, Henderson and Levin (2000, Journal of Monetary Economics) introduce sticky wages in a New-Keynesian general-equilibrium model. Alternatively, it is shown here how wage stickiness may bring unemployment fluctuations into a New-Keynesian model. Using Bayesian econometric techniques, both models are estimated with U.S. quarterly data of the Great Moderation. Estimation results are similar and provide a good empirical fit with the crucial difference that our proposal delivers unemployment fluctuations. Thus, second-moment statistics of U.S. unemployment are replicated reasonably well in our proposed New-Keynesian model with sticky wages. In the welfare analysis, the cost of cyclical fluctuations during the Great Moderation is estimated at 0.60% of steady-state consumption.
Open Access
An estimated new-Keynesian model with unemployment as excess supply of labor
(2010) Casares Polo, Miguel; Moreno Pérez, Antonio; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; Ekonomia
As one alternative to search frictions, wage stickiness is introduced in a New-Keynesian model to generate endogenous unemployment fluctuations due to mismatches between labor supply and labor demand. The effects on an estimated New-Keynesian model for the U.S. economy are: i) the Calvo-type probability on wage stickiness rises, ii) the labor supply elasticity falls, iii) the implied second-moment statistics of the unemployment rate provide a reasonable match with those observed in the data, and iv) wage-push shocks, demand shifts and monetary policy shocks are the three major determinants of unemployment fluctuations.
Open Access
Sticky prices, sticky wages, and also unemployment
(2008) Casares Polo, Miguel; Economía; Ekonomia
This paper shows a New Keynesian model where wages are set at the value that matches household's labor supply with firm's labor demand. Subsequently, wage stickiness brings industry-level unemployment fluctuations. After aggregation, the rate of wage inflation is negatively related to unemployment, as in the original Phillips (1958) curve, with an additional term that provides forward-looking dynamics. The supply-side of the model can be captured with dynamic expressions equivalent to those obtained in Erceg, Henderson, and Levin (2000), though with different slope coefficients. Impulse-response functions from a technology shock illustrate the interactions between sticky prices, sticky wages and unemployment.
Open Access
Why are labor markets in Spain and Germany so different?
(2016) Casares Polo, Miguel; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; Ekonomia
The volatility of unemployment fluctuations has been about 3 times higher in Spain than in Germany over the recent business cycles (1996-2013). In contrast, fluctuations of the rate of wage inflation were significantly more volatile in Germany than in Spain. We estimate a New-Keynesian model and find several explanatory factors: wage rigidity has been higher in Spain, the labor force has been more elastic in Germany than in Spain, large and persistent shocks augmenting the labor force have been estimated for Spain whereas in Germany there have been substantial shocks reducing the intensity of hours per worker, and the ECB’s policy design brought monetary shocks with much greater influence to the Spanish unemployment.
Open Access
Wage stickiness and unemployment fluctuations: an alternative approach
(Springer, 2012) Casares Polo, Miguel; Moreno Pérez, Antonio; Vázquez, Jesús; Economía; Ekonomia
Erceg et al. (J Monet Econ 46:281–313, 2000) introduce sticky wages in a New-Keynesian general-equilibrium model. Alternatively, it is shown here how wage stickiness may bring unemployment fluctuations into a New-Keynesian model. Using a Bayesian econometric approach, bothmodels are estimated with US quarterly data of the Great Moderation. Estimation results are similar in the two models and both provide a good empirical fit, with the crucial difference that our model delivers unemployment fluctuations. Thus, second-moment statistics of the US rate of unemployment are replicated reasonably well in our proposed New-Keynesian model with sticky wages. Demand-side shocks play a more important role than technology innovations or cost-push shock in explaining both output and unemployment fluctuations. In the welfare analysis, the cost of cyclical fluctuations during the Great Moderation is estimated at 0.60% of steady-state consumption.