Elizalde San Miguel, Begoña

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https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/48944

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Elizalde San Miguel

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Begoña

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Sociología y Trabajo Social

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I-COMMUNITAS. Institute for Advanced Social Research

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0000-0002-9324-1481

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751138

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811616

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2019 - 201912020 - 20231
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Author: Díaz Gandasegui, Vicente × Subject: Fertility ×

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Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Sense and sensibility: using a model to examine the relationship between public pre-school places and fertility
    (Taylor & Francis, 2019) Sanz, María T.; Díaz Gandasegui, Vicente; Elizalde San Miguel, Begoña; Sociología y Trabajo Social; Soziologia eta Gizarte Lana
    This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model, in which a Family Policy Index (XFPI) is included to measure and compare two different models of provision of resources to support families with children from 0 to 3 years old. The main variables in this model are the XFPI, fertility, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. This mathematical model was validated in two different countries, Spain and Norway, during the 2007–2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was applied to simulate the future trend (2016–2030), examining the influence of providing public pre-school services (0 to 3 years) on (XISF). The results obtained show that these services may indeed have an influence on fertility rates, as long as they are developed extensively.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Growing pains: can family policies revert the decline of fertility in Spain?
    (Cogitatio, 2023) Elizalde San Miguel, Begoña; Díaz Gandasegui, Vicente; Sanz, María T.; Sociología y Trabajo Social; Soziologia eta Gizarte Lana
    This article aims to analyze the capability of family policies to reverse the sharp decline in fertility that has been observed in Spain in recent decades. The analysis was carried out by applying two mathematical techniques: the genetic algorithm and the strategic scenarios. Firstly, a mathematical model was designed and validated adjusting the combined performance of fertility and family policies during the 2008–2019 period. Subsequently, this model was applied to the future (2020–2060) to extrapolate the evolution of fertility considering different models of family policies. The results demonstrate that a model of family policies that is coherent with other socially desirable objectives, such as gender and social equality, will be insufficient to reverse the current downward trend in fertility. Therefore, these outcomes point to the need to articulate and harmonize diverse public policies considering the principles of equality and well‐being to modify the recent decline in fertility. An increase in fertility must therefore be identified as a socially desirable goal and public policies must be adapted to this objective, in the understanding that fertility not only requires family policies but also their coherence with the employment and educational policies and work–life balance mechanisms offered by public institutions.