Open Access
Back to the future: a sensitivity analysis to predict future fertility rates considering the influence of family policies. The cases of Spain and Norway
(Springer, 2020) Díaz Gandasegui, Vicente; Elizalde San Miguel, Begoña; Sanz, María T.; Sociología y Trabajo Social; Soziologia eta Gizarte Lana; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
This article analyzes the relationship between family policies focused on childcare for children under the age of three and fertility levels. In the current context of very low European fertility, it is important to understand whether public support for families can help increase fertility or if, on the contrary, existing fertility levels are the exact reflection of the reproductive desires of families, regardless of the family-support of the policies that may exist in each country. This analysis was carried out through a stochastic dynamic mathematical model that incorporates both demographic variables and family policy variables. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on Spain and Norway, two countries that have very different models of family policies. This sensitivity analysis allows establishing a relationship between the existing family policies and the total fertility rate and also the expected evolution of fertility rates in the future, if the current family policies remain constant. The results showed that the models which lead to an increase in fertility are those which are most generous and which also incorporate a gender perspective, so they allow the identification of good practices and maximum levels of policy efficiency in regards to different objectives such as increase fertility and advances towards gender equality. By contrast, models with erratic and insufficient support clearly contribute to maintaining fertility at very low levels and perpetuate unequal gender relationships. There is, therefore, space for state agency to develop more effective public policies in both dimensions.
Open Access
Is involved fatherhood possible? Structural elements influencing the exercise of paternity in Spain and Norway
(SAGE Publications, 2019) Elizalde San Miguel, Begoña; Díaz Gandasegui, Vicente; Díaz Gorfinkiel, Magdalena; Sociología y Trabajo Social; Soziologia eta Gizarte Lana
This article analyses the different ways in which fatherhood is exercised in Spain and Norway. Family transformations and the redefinition of social roles assigned to men and women have brought changes in the meanings ascribed to paternity by Western societies. The two countries analyzed have undergone these changes in different ways, as they reflect different social interpretations about fathering, dissimilar participation of women in the labor market and diverse development of family policies. The aim of the article is therefore to analyze the structural elements that shape the behavior of fathers in Spain and Norway. Methodological triangulation was applied, combining in-depth interviews in both countries with a quantitative analysis of the main databases within this area. The empirical analysis is undertaken within the structural theory perspective, which takes into account the existence of elements external to the families which influence the distribution of work within the private sphere.

Elizalde San Miguel, Begoña

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