Open Access
Sense and sensibility: using a model to examine the relationship between public pre-school places and fertility
(Taylor & Francis, 2019) Sanz, María T.; Díaz Gandasegui, Vicente; Elizalde San Miguel, Begoña; Sociología y Trabajo Social; Soziologia eta Gizarte Lana
This paper presents a stochastic dynamic mathematical model, in which a Family Policy Index (XFPI) is included to measure and compare two different models of provision of resources to support families with children from 0 to 3 years old. The main variables in this model are the XFPI, fertility, mortality, emigration and immigration rates. This mathematical model was validated in two different countries, Spain and Norway, during the 2007–2015 period. A sensitivity analysis was applied to simulate the future trend (2016–2030), examining the influence of providing public pre-school services (0 to 3 years) on (XISF). The results obtained show that these services may indeed have an influence on fertility rates, as long as they are developed extensively.
Open Access
Back to the future: a sensitivity analysis to predict future fertility rates considering the influence of family policies. The cases of Spain and Norway
(Springer, 2020) Díaz Gandasegui, Vicente; Elizalde San Miguel, Begoña; Sanz, María T.; Sociología y Trabajo Social; Soziologia eta Gizarte Lana; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
This article analyzes the relationship between family policies focused on childcare for children under the age of three and fertility levels. In the current context of very low European fertility, it is important to understand whether public support for families can help increase fertility or if, on the contrary, existing fertility levels are the exact reflection of the reproductive desires of families, regardless of the family-support of the policies that may exist in each country. This analysis was carried out through a stochastic dynamic mathematical model that incorporates both demographic variables and family policy variables. A sensitivity analysis was carried out on Spain and Norway, two countries that have very different models of family policies. This sensitivity analysis allows establishing a relationship between the existing family policies and the total fertility rate and also the expected evolution of fertility rates in the future, if the current family policies remain constant. The results showed that the models which lead to an increase in fertility are those which are most generous and which also incorporate a gender perspective, so they allow the identification of good practices and maximum levels of policy efficiency in regards to different objectives such as increase fertility and advances towards gender equality. By contrast, models with erratic and insufficient support clearly contribute to maintaining fertility at very low levels and perpetuate unequal gender relationships. There is, therefore, space for state agency to develop more effective public policies in both dimensions.
Open Access
Growing pains: can family policies revert the decline of fertility in Spain?
(Cogitatio, 2023) Elizalde San Miguel, Begoña; Díaz Gandasegui, Vicente; Sanz, María T.; Sociología y Trabajo Social; Soziologia eta Gizarte Lana
This article aims to analyze the capability of family policies to reverse the sharp decline in fertility that has been observed in Spain in recent decades. The analysis was carried out by applying two mathematical techniques: the genetic algorithm and the strategic scenarios. Firstly, a mathematical model was designed and validated adjusting the combined performance of fertility and family policies during the 2008–2019 period. Subsequently, this model was applied to the future (2020–2060) to extrapolate the evolution of fertility considering different models of family policies. The results demonstrate that a model of family policies that is coherent with other socially desirable objectives, such as gender and social equality, will be insufficient to reverse the current downward trend in fertility. Therefore, these outcomes point to the need to articulate and harmonize diverse public policies considering the principles of equality and well‐being to modify the recent decline in fertility. An increase in fertility must therefore be identified as a socially desirable goal and public policies must be adapted to this objective, in the understanding that fertility not only requires family policies but also their coherence with the employment and educational policies and work–life balance mechanisms offered by public institutions.

Elizalde San Miguel, Begoña

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