Sánchez Alegría, Santiago

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https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/49955

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Sánchez Alegría

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Santiago

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Gestión de Empresas

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INARBE. Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics

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0000-0003-2039-7597

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751163

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5925

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2012 - 201912020 - 20221
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Lagged accuracy in credit-risk measures
    (Elsevier, 2022) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; González Urteaga, Ana; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Sánchez Alegría, Santiago; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
    This paper analyzes the magnitude (accuracy) and length (time) of the lag in the incorporation of new information in different measures of credit risk. The results, for US firms, show a lag for Altman’s Z accounting measure and credit rating. In contrast, market-based credit-risk measures such as CDSs and the Black-Scholes-Merton model show no lag. This paper also analyzes the determinants of the lags found showing the importance of the informativeness of CDSs in reducing the lag for all types of default events, and a negative relationship between accounting manipulation and the lag of Altman’s Z for severe default events.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    The role of accounting accruals for the prediction of future cash flows: evidence from Spain
    (Springer, 2012) Arnedo Ajona, Laura; Lizarraga Dallo, Fermín; Sánchez Alegría, Santiago; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua
    The aim of this study is to determine whether accruals have information value beyond that provided by isolated current cash flows for the prediction of future cash flows. Using a sample of 4,397 Spanish companies (mostly privately held), we estimate in-sample regressions of future cash flows on isolated current cash flows and on accrual-based earnings. We then find that the out-of-sample prediction errors provided by the accrual-based earnings model are significantly lower than those obtained with the cash flows model. We also regress the decrease in prediction errors brought about by the addition of accruals on a set of firm-specific circumstances where accounting manipulation is expected. In all cases the decrease in prediction errors is significantly affected in the hypothesized direction.