Open Access
Interes tasa mailegu eragiketetan: lukurreriarekin bueltaka
(Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa, 2014) Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
Se suele comenzar la referencia al sistema financiero calificándolo como el sistema (productos, intermediarios, mercados e instituciones) que permite canalizar el ahorro de las unidades económicas (individuos, empresas, administraciones o estados) con superávit a otras unidades económicas con déficit. Éstas deben emitir un pasivo financiero que representa un derecho a percibir unos flujos de caja futuros, lo que se convertirá en activo financiero objeto de inversión de las unidades con superávit. Uno de estos pasivos / activos financieros son las operaciones de préstamo. En la actualidad, al menos dentro de nuestro contexto cultural occidental, nos parece razonable entender que una persona que acude a solicitar un préstamo a una entidad financiera deberá atender al pago tanto del principal de la deuda como de los intereses devengados por la misma. Es más, dentro de unos límites bastante amplios, se considera razonable que éstos se establezcan libremente en el mercado. Pero esta situación no es, en modo alguno, la que ha presidido el estudio y consideración de estas operaciones a lo largo de la historia. A continuación se presenta una breve panorámica desde los primeros escritos sumerios hasta Roma, para trasladarnos, posteriormente, hasta nuestros días a través de su interpretación a la luz de las tres grandes religiones monoteístas. Por último, a modo de cierre, se introducirán un par de cuestiones de cierta actualidad.
Open Access
The impact of investor sentiment on stock returns in emerging markets. The case of Central European markets
(Taylor & Francis, 2015) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper studies the effect of investor sentiment on stock returns in three Central European markets: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The results show that sentiment is a key variable in the prices of stocks traded on these markets and its impact is stronger here than in more developed European markets. This effect is linked to stock characteristics, particularly those considered to make stocks more prone to the influences of investor sentiment. The evidence shows that the effect is not uniform across countries, since higher levels are found for Poland and the Czech Republic, thus confirming the role of country-specific factors in the impact of investor sentiment on stock prices. The results also confirm that sentiment is a twofold (global and local) phenomenon, in which the global dimension has much greater impact than the local dimension, at least in the markets considered. Finally, the paper has shown that sentiment does not spread, at least to any significant degree, through the movement of capital between markets. This strengthens the argument that sentiment is transmitted through a behavioral mechanism. If this argument proves correct, there is little likelihood of local regulatory action being very effective in limiting the perverse impact of asset bubbles.
Open Access
Sustainability for European investors: evidence from a sustainable ranking
(EDITUM-Universidad de Murcia, 2020) López Arceiz, Francisco José; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Río Solano, María Cristina del; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
La sostenibilidad corporativa implica una amplia perspectiva que sugiere la creación de valor para los stakeholders y requiere desarrollar algunos compromisos a nivel económico, social, ambiental y de gobierno. La medición de los niveles de sostenibilidad corporativa tiene lugar a través de diferentes herramientas, siendo los rankings de sostenibilidad uno de los instrumentos más populares. Sin embargo, el impacto de estos indicadores en el valor de mercado es controvertido. Consecuentemente, nuestro objetivo es analizar la influencia del nivel de sostenibilidad sobre el valor de mercado de un conjunto de empresas. Para ello, aislamos el impacto del factor sostenibilidad de otra serie de efectos relacionados con la evolución general de los mercados financieros. Hemos utilizado información contenida en un ranking sostenible: el medallero elaborado por RobecoSAM. Nuestros resultados revelan que los inversores no valorar por igual los diferentes movimientos y calificaciones derivadas de la participación en un ranking sostenible.
Open Access
Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment
(Elsevier, 2014) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.
Open Access
The effect of a switch of management company on pension plan fees
(Routledge, 2021) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
The impact of a switch of management company on pension plan fees is analysed by comparing the effects on employer-sponsored versus individual defined-contribution private pension plans in Spain. This framework is ideal because the two types differ significantly both in plan governance structure and consequently in the degree of bargaining power held by the decision-maker. In addition, intense bank restructuring, which has greatly modified the Spanish pension plan map, provides an interesting analytical context for the identification of causal links, because it is a scenario that features shocks exogenous to the relationship under analysis. The results show that a switch of management company significantly reduces management fees for employer-sponsored plans when the management change is not due to the bank restructuring process, on the contrary a switch of management company increases fees for individual pension plans.
Open Access
Sentiment-prone investors and volatility dynamics between spot and futures markets
(Elsevier, 2015) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyses the role of investor sentiment in the contemporaneous dynamics of spot and futures markets and in volatility spillovers between them. To explore this issue, we analyse spot and futures markets on stock market indexes in different countries: the S&P500 for the US, and a representative set of European indexes (CAC40, DAX30, FTSE100, IBEX35 and Eurostoxx50). Consistent with expectations, we have shown that the correlation is not stable with the level of investor sentiment. More specifically, the correlation between the two markets diminishes significantly during periods of high investor sentiment. Moreover, volatility shocks in either market are also found to have less impact during these periods. These results are compatible with behavioural finance theories suggesting that high investor sentiment leads to an increase in noise trading and a decline in arbitrage activity due to institutional investors’ attempts to limit their risk exposure.
Open Access
Momentum and default risk. Some results using the jump component
(Elsevier, 2015) González Urteaga, Ana; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
In this paper we separate the total stock return into its continuous and jump component to test whether stock return predictability should be attributed to omitted risk factors or behavioral finance theories. We extend results from the US market to the Spanish stock market, which, despite being a developed market, presents several differences in terms of stock characteristics, financial system, investor typology and cultural dimensions. The results show that the jump component has significant explanatory power for the premium of three characteristics (size, book-to-market and illiquidity), which is at odds with risk-based explanations. Using the same testing strategy, we try to shed some light on an important controversy concerning the relationship between default risk and momentum. The results suggest that default risk is not the source of momentum returns.
Open Access
Investor sentiment effect in stock markets: stock characteristics or country-specific factors?
(Elsevier, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyzes the investor sentiment effect in four key European stock markets: France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The findings show that sentiment has a significant influence on returns, varying in intensity across markets. The variation appears to involve both stock characteristics and cross-country cultural or institutional differences. The results also show sensitivity to the choice of sentiment proxy.
Open Access
Complexity is never simple: intangible intensity and analyst accuracy
(SAGE, 2020) Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Suárez Suárez, Nuria; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
We examine the relationship between intangible intensity and the accuracy of analyst forecasts. Using an international sample of 2,200 firms during 2000–2016, we show that analyst accuracy decreases significantly when intangible intensity grows. In exploring the determinants of this effect, we distinguish between firm risk and the risk associated with intangibles. Our results reveal the role of financial reporting quality, ownership structure, and institutional quality in moderating the relationship between intangible intensity and analyst accuracy. Analyst forecast accuracy acts as a channel through which the higher levels of information asymmetry associated with intangible intensity affect the cost of equity. Our results are robust to different intangible intensity measures; mandatory changes in financial reporting standards; the implementation of transparency rules in certain industry sectors; and financial crisis periods. We have devised alternative econometric tools that deal with potential sample selection bias and the dynamics of our empirical model.
Open Access
Does default probability matter in Latin American emerging markets?
(Taylor & Francis, 2013) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
We analyse the impact of default probability in four leading Latin American stock markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico). We find no positive default risk premium except in the case of Brazil, and in fact find a negative risk premium for Argentina and Mexico. The latter effect tends to fade when the analysis accounts for size and BTM market variables. Although we find no size effect in any of the markets considered, the BTM effect is very strong in all of them, and our results reveal a consistent relationship, analogous to that found in more developed markets, between default probability and the size and book-to-market variables.