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Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael

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Santamaría Aquilué

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Rafael

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Gestión de Empresas

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0000-0001-7656-6412

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525

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2014 - 20203
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Item Type: Publication × Subject: Betting exchanges ×

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Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
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    PublicationOpen Access
    The role of small bettors in price formation in betting exchanges
    (Routledge, 2020) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
    The presence of small bettors in betting exchanges generates mispricing, which can lead to exploitation by informed traders or result in permanent price deviations. This paper shows that mispricing from this source is also dependent upon variables of established relevance such as tournament round, the level of attention to the event, the volume of the betting, and bet type, further confirming these findings by means of cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) curves. It also offers evidence of the relevant role played by the type of device used to place the bet, whereby higher mispricing is observed in live bets placed via a mobile device, which appears to be associated with impulsive betting. This last finding could have practical implications for the regulation of the use of mobile devices to access gambling platforms.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Behavioral biases never walk alone: an empirical analysis of the effect of overconfidence on probabilities
    (SAGE, 2014) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
    This paper presents evidence of the impact of overconfidence bias in asset prices drawn from a study based on data from tennis betting exchanges. A series of betting strategies in tournaments with a clear-cut favourite are shown to yield significant economic returns. The impact of overconfidence bias on betting odds increases with trading volume, media coverage, and levels of disagreement between overconfident and Cumulative Prospect Theory bettors. Just as in traditional financial markets, arbitrage limits are shown to be a necessary condition for the impact of behavioural biases on prices.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Hidden power of trading activity: the FLB in tennis betting exchanges
    (SAGE Publications, 2017) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
    This paper examines the impact of trading activity on the Favourite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in tennis Betting Exchanges, using direct measures such as betting volume, average bet and standard deviation of the odds. According to predictions based on Disagreement Models, odds mispricing is positively associated with trading volume but negatively associated with the presence of institutional bettors. The FLB is also positively related to the degree of uncertainty in the market. The existence of two simultaneous markets (a “main” and an “alternative” market) in this specific sports-betting environment has enabled us to observe that the relative amount of attention given to the favourite versus that given to the long shot is positively associated with the FLB. Finally, information is more rapidly incorporated into the odds in the market that receives more attention from bettors, an effect that is intensified by the arbitrage and hedging that occurs between the two markets.