Open Access
Simulating the effects of the European singles market: a CGE analysis for Spain
(2005) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we provide an empirical assessment of two of the measures proposed in the context of the European Single Market, namely, easing the provision of domestic and foreign services, and modifying the rules of public procurement, for the case of Spain. We build and simulate a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which incorporates three particular features: (i) increasing returns to scale and a noncompetitive price rule; (ii) sectoral export demand functions; and (iii) equilibrium unemployment according to a matching function approach.
Open Access
A multi-country analysis of austerity policies in the European Union
(Wiley, 2021) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
We analyse the global effects from the austerity policies recently implemented in the EU, by developing an extension of the GTAP general equilibrium model. The extended model incorporates a new specification of the trade balance (i.e. endogenous), the labour market (i.e. unemployment under a wage curve framework) and the public sector (i.e. split from the representative national agent, with endogenous expenditure and savings). Three alternative policies aimed to get a one percentage point reduction in the EU’s government deficit to GDP ratio are simulated, and their effects on the main macroeconomic variables of seven regions of the world economy are examined. The three policy measures led to contractionary effects on the EU’s activity levels, together with changes in income distribution, always detrimental to labour. The effects on the rest of the world, driven by changes in trade flows, were, however, mostly negligible.
Open Access
Reducing social contributions on unskilled labour as a way of fighting unemployment: an empirical evaluation for the case of Spain
(2001) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we provide an empirical evaluation of the effects of a cut in social security contributions (i) for all types of labour, and (ii) only for unskilled labour, within a computable general equilibrium model simulated for the Spanish economy. The model allows firms to follow a non-competitive price rule, and incorporates an equal yield assumption, which means that the reduction in social security contributions is compensated with an increase in value-added tax rates, so that the public sector deficit is not affected. In addition, the labour market is assumed to follow a matching unemployment rule, which allows to model in a simple way any frictions present in that market.
Open Access
Provision of public health services and sustainable development: evidence for 12 emerging countries
(MDPI, 2020) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
In this paper, we quantify the effects of an increase in the public provision of health services in a set of 12 emerging economies (i.e., Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Russia, South Africa and Tunisia), representing 45% of world population in 2018. We use a computable general equilibrium model and simulate an increase in the real government expenditure devoted to public health services up to a 20% of total government expenditure, which is also assumed to raise labour productivity. This increase leads to expansionary effects in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for all the economies under analysis and an increase in the ratio of government deficit to GDP, ranging between 3.66 points for Russia and 0.24 points for Colombia. If, in addition, direct tax rates on labour are increased to offset this result, the effects on GDP and employment become contractionary in most cases; whereas if indirect tax rates are those to be increased, small expansionary effects are again the norm with the only exception of Russia.
Open Access
Efectos de cambios impositivos en un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado: un análisis de la reforma de 1995
(1999) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de una disminución de los tipos de las cotizaciones sociales, compensada con un incremento en los tipos del impuesto sobre el valor añadido, como la que tuvo lugar en España en 1995. Para ello se utiliza un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado a la economía española, que se presenta en dos versiones: una donde los sectores productivos se modelizan en competencia perfecta, y otra donde los mismos sectores se modelizan como oligopolistas a la Cournot, lo cual nos permite analizar la influencia del supuesto de competencia imperfecta sobre los resultados. Se ha realizado asimismo una simulación adicional aplicando un supuesto de equal yield por el que el déficit público y el nivel de bienestar del sector público se mantienen constantes tras la aplicación de la nueva política, con objeto de aislar los efectos secundarios que se podrían derivar de un cambio en el comportamiento del sector público.
Open Access
The role of country size and returns to scale in empirical assessments of economic integration: the case of Spain
(2000) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
Empirical assessments of trade policy in single-country models have addressed extensively the assumption of increasing returns to scale versus constant returns to scale, but the alternative assumption of small open economy versus large open economy has not received much attention. This paper provides an evaluation of the relevance of both assumptions (i. e., returns to scale and country size) when analyzing a process of economic integration for a medium-size economy. We conclude that the often neglected country-size assumption might be more relevant for the empirical results than returns to scale.
Open Access
Las cotizaciones sociales en España y la Unión Europea: simulando algunas posibles reformas
(FUNCAS, 2019) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de una reducción de las cotizaciones sociales a cargo de los empresarios, acompañada o no de un incremento en los tipos de los impuestos indirectos, utilizando la metodología del equilibrio general aplicado en el marco de un modelo multipaís. Los resultados muestran que un descenso de un 10 por 100 en las cotizaciones sociales se traduciría en unos incrementos moderados en los niveles del PIB y empleo de la economía española, con una reducción de la tasa de desempleo de aproximadamente medio punto. Los efectos serían cuantitativamente menores si la reducción de las cotizaciones sociales viene acompañada de un incremento en la imposición indirecta. Cuando la reducción de cotizaciones sociales se lleva a cabo en la UE-14, sus efectos sobre la economía española solamente son significativos, aunque de pequeña magnitud, en el caso de plena movilidad internacional de factores productivos.