Open Access
Simulating the effects of the European singles market: a CGE analysis for Spain
(2005) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we provide an empirical assessment of two of the measures proposed in the context of the European Single Market, namely, easing the provision of domestic and foreign services, and modifying the rules of public procurement, for the case of Spain. We build and simulate a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which incorporates three particular features: (i) increasing returns to scale and a noncompetitive price rule; (ii) sectoral export demand functions; and (iii) equilibrium unemployment according to a matching function approach.
Open Access
Provision of public health services and sustainable development: evidence for 12 emerging countries
(MDPI, 2020) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
In this paper, we quantify the effects of an increase in the public provision of health services in a set of 12 emerging economies (i.e., Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Russia, South Africa and Tunisia), representing 45% of world population in 2018. We use a computable general equilibrium model and simulate an increase in the real government expenditure devoted to public health services up to a 20% of total government expenditure, which is also assumed to raise labour productivity. This increase leads to expansionary effects in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for all the economies under analysis and an increase in the ratio of government deficit to GDP, ranging between 3.66 points for Russia and 0.24 points for Colombia. If, in addition, direct tax rates on labour are increased to offset this result, the effects on GDP and employment become contractionary in most cases; whereas if indirect tax rates are those to be increased, small expansionary effects are again the norm with the only exception of Russia.
Open Access
Digitalization, multinationals and employment: an empirical analysis of their causal relationships
(De Gruyter Oldenbourg, 2019) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Latorre, María C.; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
This study measures the effects of digitalization related to Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) investment on employment and other economic variables according to firms' ownership. We present two computable general equilibrium models (with full employment and with unemployment) which differentiate two types of firms: National and foreign multinationals (MNEs). Both types of firms allow for the substitution between labour and ICT capital. We conclude that ICT investments significantly create jobs and raise real wages, GDP and welfare. The aggregate positive effects are stronger for ICT investment in national firms than in foreign MNEs although the sign of some sectoral effects can be negative. We also analyze the role of wage flexibility in this context, with the most favorable results related to scenarios where wages are more rigid for both cases, when investors are national firms or foreign MNEs. The model is applied to the case of Spain, a country with a high unemployment rate where ICT investment has been large since the mid 1990s.
Open Access
Reducing social contributions on unskilled labour as a way of fighting unemployment: an empirical evaluation for the case of Spain
(2001) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we provide an empirical evaluation of the effects of a cut in social security contributions (i) for all types of labour, and (ii) only for unskilled labour, within a computable general equilibrium model simulated for the Spanish economy. The model allows firms to follow a non-competitive price rule, and incorporates an equal yield assumption, which means that the reduction in social security contributions is compensated with an increase in value-added tax rates, so that the public sector deficit is not affected. In addition, the labour market is assumed to follow a matching unemployment rule, which allows to model in a simple way any frictions present in that market.
Open Access
Las cotizaciones sociales en España y la Unión Europea: simulando algunas posibles reformas
(FUNCAS, 2019) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de una reducción de las cotizaciones sociales a cargo de los empresarios, acompañada o no de un incremento en los tipos de los impuestos indirectos, utilizando la metodología del equilibrio general aplicado en el marco de un modelo multipaís. Los resultados muestran que un descenso de un 10 por 100 en las cotizaciones sociales se traduciría en unos incrementos moderados en los niveles del PIB y empleo de la economía española, con una reducción de la tasa de desempleo de aproximadamente medio punto. Los efectos serían cuantitativamente menores si la reducción de las cotizaciones sociales viene acompañada de un incremento en la imposición indirecta. Cuando la reducción de cotizaciones sociales se lleva a cabo en la UE-14, sus efectos sobre la economía española solamente son significativos, aunque de pequeña magnitud, en el caso de plena movilidad internacional de factores productivos.
Open Access
International immigration and mobility across sectors: an exploration of alternative scenarios for Spain
(2001) Ferri, Javier; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Martín Montaner, Joan; Economía; Ekonomia
This paper explores the economic effects of international immigration in Spain by constructing a CGE model. We are mainly concerned about the issue of labor mobility across sectors. In our simulations, we first restrict immigrants to work in a small set of industries receiving wages that are below the native ones, a situation that we call the short run. Then, we consider that immigrants can move freely among all the industries in the economy earning wages on a par with local workers. This we call the long run situation. The results suggest that short run economic performance can be improved by choosing strategic sectors to receive immigrants. We also find evidence that the wage regime is an important parameter to explain the impact both in the short and in the long run.