Embargo
Analyst responses to changes in credit risk
(Wiley, 2025-02-03) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
Do analysts adjust their recommendations when a company's credit risk changes? Using an extensive sample of 300,145 observations, covering 3722 US firms from 2000 to 2021, we find that analysts revise their recommendations when a firm's credit risk decreases but not when it increases. This result is consistent with analysts¿ optimism bias, as previously identified in the literature. However, we further find that this optimism bias disappears for firms with low information asymmetry or good informativeness. The fact that analysts for these firms have less cognitive bias and greater pressure to make accurate recommendations may explain this result. Our research highlights that analyst disclosures should be treated with caution, especially in firms with poor informational characteristics. A proper understanding of analyst recommendations is critical for the decision-making processes of investors and companies and calls for better regulations.
Open Access
Cambios en el comportamiento inversor ante nuevos escenarios monetarios
(Fundación de las Cajas de Ahorros (FUNCAS), 2023-03-01) Blasco de las Heras, Natividad; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
Este trabajo analiza los cambios que los inversores han presentado en sus decisiones de inversión ante las variaciones habidas en los últimos años en la política monetaria por parte del Banco Central Europeo. En una visión panorámica se observa que, si bien el efectivo y los depósitos son los instrumentos de ahorro más importantes para los inversores, la subida de tipos de interés iniciada en junio de 2022 está corrigiendo este efecto, moviendo la demanda de activos hacia los valores representativos de deuda a la vez que disminuye la solicitud de crédito por parte de los hogares. Destaca, asimismo, desde el período de pandemia , el crecimiento de las participaciones en fondos de inversión, especialmente en los vinculados a activos internacionales. Por otro lado, observamos también que el sentimiento del inversor fluctúa durante el período analizado, pasando del pesimismo durante el período de pandemia al optimismo en el período inflacionario posterior a la pandemia, y retornando a un cierto pesimismo con la subida de tipos. Estos vaivenes impactan, finalmente, en los volúmenes de los depósitos y los valores de deuda, así como en las acciones cotizadas y en su rentabilidad.
Open Access
Sentiment-prone investors and volatility dynamics between spot and futures markets
(Elsevier, 2015) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyses the role of investor sentiment in the contemporaneous dynamics of spot and futures markets and in volatility spillovers between them. To explore this issue, we analyse spot and futures markets on stock market indexes in different countries: the S&P500 for the US, and a representative set of European indexes (CAC40, DAX30, FTSE100, IBEX35 and Eurostoxx50). Consistent with expectations, we have shown that the correlation is not stable with the level of investor sentiment. More specifically, the correlation between the two markets diminishes significantly during periods of high investor sentiment. Moreover, volatility shocks in either market are also found to have less impact during these periods. These results are compatible with behavioural finance theories suggesting that high investor sentiment leads to an increase in noise trading and a decline in arbitrage activity due to institutional investors’ attempts to limit their risk exposure.
Open Access
Measuring credit risk in family firms
(SAGE, 2020) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
This article attempts to identify the default risk measure which best reflects the idiosyncratic context of public family firms. Seven accounting- and market-based measures are compared over a sample of 981 US family and non-family firms for the period 2000–2016. The results show that the Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) measure gives the best fit in both types of firm. However, all the accounting-based measures, especially Altman’s Z-score, come closest to the market-based measures when used to assess the credit risk of family firms. The two types of measures also coincide more closely in their default risk orderings of family than of non-family firms. Useful practical implications can be drawn from these findings, which show that accounting-based measures can be used reliably in the absence of market data for family firms with similar characteristics to those in our sample.
Open Access
Value of analysts’ consensus recommendations and investor sentiment
(Taylor & Francis, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper studies the effect of investor sentiment on analysts' consensus recommendations. Our results show that the optimistic bias of analysts in the issuing of recommendations is affected by investor sentiment: the greater the investor sentiment, the more optimistically biased the analysts’ consensus recommendations. This bias is larger in stocks whose characteristics make them hard to value or to arbitrage. We also show that investor sentiment can help in the design of profitable strategies, particularly when taking the short position in portfolios with high sentiment sensitivity stocks.
Open Access
Does herding affect volatility? Implications for the Spanish stock market
(Taylor & Francis, 2012) Blasco de las Heras, Natividad; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferreruela Garcés, Sandra; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
According to rational expectation models, uninformed or liquidity trading make market price volatility rise. This paper sets out to analyze the impact of herding, which may be interpreted as one of the components of uninformed trading, on the volatility of the Spanish stock market. Herding is examined at the intraday level, considered the most reliable sampling frequency for detecting this type of investor behavior, and measured using the Patterson and Sharma (2006) herding intensity measure. Different volatility measures (historical, realized and implied) are employed. The results confirm that herding has a direct linear impact on volatility for all of the volatility measures considered although the corresponding intensity is not always the same. In fact, herding variables seem to be useful in volatility forecasting and therefore in decision making when volatility is considered a key factor.
Open Access
Enhancing learning in the finance classroom
(Universidad Politécnica de Valencia., 2022) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Río Solano, María Cristina del; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; González Urteaga, Ana; Mansilla Fernández, José Manuel; Martínez García, Beatriz; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper aims to describe a teaching-learning experience based on ProjectBased Learning (PBL). This experience is part of an educational innovation project devoted to transforming finance classes in various facets of financial advice. Specifically, the article focuses on the transformation process of a subject that studies financial markets and the assets traded in them. Based on this experience, the classroom becomes a financial consulting firm that advises investors on how to invest their capital. The results show us a remarkable active dedication of the students to the course, improved knowledge, and marks. In addition, the development of skills and values such as teamwork, autonomy, solidarity, equality, and professional skills are elements that encourage us to continue along this line.
Open Access
The role of sentiment and stock characteristics in the translation of analysts’ forecasts into recommendations
(Elsevier, 2019) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
The purpose of this paper is to further understanding of the determinants of analysts’ translational effectiveness and, specifically, the role of stock characteristics in the impact of sentiment in the translation of analysts’ forecasts into recommendations. We construct a proxy of intrinsic value of a stock based on that of Ohlson (1995), which incorporates all the information contained in the analysts’ earnings forecasts. Our results show that, although analysts do translate their earnings forecast valuations into recommendations, the effectiveness of this process is reduced by investor sentiment only in highly sentiment-sensitive stocks. This suggests the degree of analyst coverage as a potential conditioner of the observable results in a market. While not totally eliminating this observed effect, the Market Abuse Directive regulation does contribute to reduce the skew between analysts’ earnings forecasts and their recommendations. Finally, analysis of this effect reveals that this kind of skew enables investment strategies yielding positive risk-adjusted returns in highly sentiment-sensitive stocks, during periods of high market sentiment.
Open Access
The information environment, informed trading and volatility
(Routledge, 2017) Blasco de las Heras, Natividad; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
The relation between informed trading and volatility is analyzed using the change in the proportion of informed transactions calculated through the probability of informed trading variable. The analysis relates to the Spanish market during 1997–2010, given that the Spanish market covers a very diverse range of listed companies. Some companies are comparable to companies listed on U.S. markets while others are smaller in size and have a lower trading volume and inferior quality of information. The methodology is based on a modification of the model proposed by Avramov, Chordia, and Goyal [2006]. The authors’ proposal incorporates the change in the proportion of informed transactions, calculated with intraday data, into the volatility model. The results are also presented using a conditional volatility model in which the change in the proportion of informed transactions is incorporated. These results attest to the influence of informed trading as a price-stabilizing factor in heavily traded and highly capitalized stocks (familiar stocks). Informed trading leads to a marked decrease in volatility for these particular stocks both in periods of calm and crisis.
Open Access
Does the betting industry price gender? Evidence from professional tennis
(SAGE Publications, 2021) Barrutiabengoa Ortubai, Joxe Maria; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
This research addresses the importance of gender in the pricing process of the sports betting industry. Specifically, we investigate the impact of gender in the prices that bookmakers offer for tennis matches. Despite widespread evidence of gender bias both in the practice of the sport and its media coverage, tennis is one of the sports that has done most to achieve equality. The analysis of 51,881 tennis matches reveals that betting firms quote higher prices for women's matches than for men's, even when considering uncertainty due to the surprise factor and the media attention. The separate analysis of two bookmakers strengthens the evidence for the role of media attention as a source of gender-related information asymmetry.