Open Access
Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment
(Elsevier, 2014) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.
Open Access
Does family ownership always reduce default risk?
(Wiley, 2021) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
This paper analyses the effect of family ownership on the outcome of the firm’s risk‐taking activities, measured by the company’s default risk. We show that family ownership reduces the probability of default, which is proxied by the Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) model. Our study goes further than the initial approach by taking into account certain factors conditioning the aforementioned relationship. We find that the expected negative relationship between family ownership and default risk is modified when there is a significant participation of institutional investors, whose positive moderating influence intensifies if they are stable and long‐term oriented and/or during adverse financial circumstances.
Open Access
Intentional herding in stock markets: an alternative approach in an international context
(Edward Elgar, 2010) Blasco de las Heras, Natividad; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferreruela Garcés, Sandra; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua
One of the issues of greatest concern in the world of finance is trying to understand how investors make decisions. The classic theoretical explanations are based on conditions of investor rationality and the perfection of markets, and the use of information available in the market as a decisive tool. In recent years the branch of behavioural finance has emerged strongly in the field to try to expand this vision of investor behaviour. Factors associated with the psychological and sociological behaviour of individuals have been introduced as significant elements that go some way to explain investor decisions. Thaler (1991) and Shefrin (2000), among others, have incorporated an emotional component into the classic models considering both visions as compatible and complementary. A survey of the history and contributions in this field of finance in recent years can be found in Sewell (2007).
Open Access
Measuring credit risk in family firms
(SAGE, 2020) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
This article attempts to identify the default risk measure which best reflects the idiosyncratic context of public family firms. Seven accounting- and market-based measures are compared over a sample of 981 US family and non-family firms for the period 2000–2016. The results show that the Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) measure gives the best fit in both types of firm. However, all the accounting-based measures, especially Altman’s Z-score, come closest to the market-based measures when used to assess the credit risk of family firms. The two types of measures also coincide more closely in their default risk orderings of family than of non-family firms. Useful practical implications can be drawn from these findings, which show that accounting-based measures can be used reliably in the absence of market data for family firms with similar characteristics to those in our sample.
Open Access
Value of analysts’ consensus recommendations and investor sentiment
(Taylor & Francis, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper studies the effect of investor sentiment on analysts' consensus recommendations. Our results show that the optimistic bias of analysts in the issuing of recommendations is affected by investor sentiment: the greater the investor sentiment, the more optimistically biased the analysts’ consensus recommendations. This bias is larger in stocks whose characteristics make them hard to value or to arbitrage. We also show that investor sentiment can help in the design of profitable strategies, particularly when taking the short position in portfolios with high sentiment sensitivity stocks.
Open Access
Sentiment-prone investors and volatility dynamics between spot and futures markets
(Elsevier, 2015) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyses the role of investor sentiment in the contemporaneous dynamics of spot and futures markets and in volatility spillovers between them. To explore this issue, we analyse spot and futures markets on stock market indexes in different countries: the S&P500 for the US, and a representative set of European indexes (CAC40, DAX30, FTSE100, IBEX35 and Eurostoxx50). Consistent with expectations, we have shown that the correlation is not stable with the level of investor sentiment. More specifically, the correlation between the two markets diminishes significantly during periods of high investor sentiment. Moreover, volatility shocks in either market are also found to have less impact during these periods. These results are compatible with behavioural finance theories suggesting that high investor sentiment leads to an increase in noise trading and a decline in arbitrage activity due to institutional investors’ attempts to limit their risk exposure.
Open Access
Analyst responses to changes in credit risk
(Wiley, 2025-02-03) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
Do analysts adjust their recommendations when a company's credit risk changes? Using an extensive sample of 300,145 observations, covering 3722 US firms from 2000 to 2021, we find that analysts revise their recommendations when a firm's credit risk decreases but not when it increases. This result is consistent with analysts¿ optimism bias, as previously identified in the literature. However, we further find that this optimism bias disappears for firms with low information asymmetry or good informativeness. The fact that analysts for these firms have less cognitive bias and greater pressure to make accurate recommendations may explain this result. Our research highlights that analyst disclosures should be treated with caution, especially in firms with poor informational characteristics. A proper understanding of analyst recommendations is critical for the decision-making processes of investors and companies and calls for better regulations.
Open Access
Cambios en el comportamiento inversor ante nuevos escenarios monetarios
(Fundación de las Cajas de Ahorros (FUNCAS), 2023-03-01) Blasco de las Heras, Natividad; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
Este trabajo analiza los cambios que los inversores han presentado en sus decisiones de inversión ante las variaciones habidas en los últimos años en la política monetaria por parte del Banco Central Europeo. En una visión panorámica se observa que, si bien el efectivo y los depósitos son los instrumentos de ahorro más importantes para los inversores, la subida de tipos de interés iniciada en junio de 2022 está corrigiendo este efecto, moviendo la demanda de activos hacia los valores representativos de deuda a la vez que disminuye la solicitud de crédito por parte de los hogares. Destaca, asimismo, desde el período de pandemia , el crecimiento de las participaciones en fondos de inversión, especialmente en los vinculados a activos internacionales. Por otro lado, observamos también que el sentimiento del inversor fluctúa durante el período analizado, pasando del pesimismo durante el período de pandemia al optimismo en el período inflacionario posterior a la pandemia, y retornando a un cierto pesimismo con la subida de tipos. Estos vaivenes impactan, finalmente, en los volúmenes de los depósitos y los valores de deuda, así como en las acciones cotizadas y en su rentabilidad.
Open Access
Investor sentiment effect in stock markets: stock characteristics or country-specific factors?
(Elsevier, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyzes the investor sentiment effect in four key European stock markets: France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The findings show that sentiment has a significant influence on returns, varying in intensity across markets. The variation appears to involve both stock characteristics and cross-country cultural or institutional differences. The results also show sensitivity to the choice of sentiment proxy.
Open Access
Market sentiment: a key factor of investors' imitative behaviour
(Wiley, 2012) Blasco de las Heras, Natividad; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferreruela Garcés, Sandra; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua
The aim of this paper is to explore herding behavior among investors in order to determine its rational and emotional component factors and identify relationships among them. We apply causality tests to evaluate the impact of return and market sentiment on herding intensity. The herding intensity is quantified using the measure developed by Patterson and Sharma (2006). The research was conducted during the period 1997-2003 in the Spanish stock market, where the presence of herding has been confirmed. The results reveal that the herding intensity depends on past returns and sentiment or subjective assessments and confirm the presence of both a rational and an emotional factor.