Person: Militino, Ana F.
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Militino
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Ana F.
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Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas
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InaMat2. Instituto de Investigación en Materiales Avanzados y Matemáticas
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0000-0002-0631-3919
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220
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Publication Open Access Locally adaptive change-point detection (LACPD) with applications to environmental changes(Springer, 2021) Moradi, Mohammad Mehdi; Montesino San Martín, Manuel; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Militino, Ana F.; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística, Informática y MatemáticasWe propose an adaptive-sliding-window approach (LACPD) for the problem of change-point detection in a set of time-ordered observations. The proposed method is combined with sub-sampling techniques to compensate for the lack of enough data near the time series’ tails. Through a simulation study, we analyse its behaviour in the presence of an early/middle/late change-point in the mean, and compare its performance with some of the frequently used and recently developed change-point detection methods in terms of power, type I error probability, area under the ROC curves (AUC), absolute bias, variance, and root-mean-square error (RMSE). We conclude that LACPD outperforms other methods by maintaining a low type I error probability. Unlike some other methods, the performance of LACPD does not depend on the time index of change-points, and it generally has lower bias than other alternative methods. Moreover, in terms of variance and RMSE, it outperforms other methods when change-points are close to the time series’ tails, whereas it shows a similar (sometimes slightly poorer) performance as other methods when change-points are close to the middle of time series. Finally, we apply our proposal to two sets of real data: the well-known example of annual flow of the Nile river in Awsan, Egypt, from 1871 to 1970, and a novel remote sensing data application consisting of a 34-year time-series of satellite images of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index in Wadi As-Sirham valley, Saudi Arabia, from 1986 to 2019. We conclude that LACPD shows a good performance in detecting the presence of a change as well as the time and magnitude of change in real conditions.Publication Open Access Detecting change-points in the time series of surfaces occupied by pre-defined NDVI categories in continental Spain from 1981 to 2015(Springer, 2018) Militino, Ana F.; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Pérez Goya, Unai; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2The free access to satellite images since more than 40 years ago has provoked a rapid increase of multitemporal derived information of remote sensing data that should be summarized and analyzed for future inferences. In particular, the study of trends and trend changes is of crucial interest in many studies of phenology, climatology, agriculture, hydrology, geology or many other environmental disciplines. Overall, the normalized dierence vegetation index (NDVI), as a satellite derived variable, plays a crucial role because of its usefulness for vegetation and landscape characterization, land use and land cover mapping, environmental monitoring, climate change or crop prediction models. Since the eighties, it can be retrieved all over the world from dierent satellites. In this work we propose to analyze its temporal evolution, looking for breakpoints or change-points in trends of the surfaces occupied by four NDVI classications made in Spain from 1981 to 2015. The results show a decrease of bare soils and semi-bare soils starting in the middle nineties or before, and a slight increase of middle-vegetation and high-vegetation soils starting in 1990 and 2000 respectively.Publication Open Access Using RGISTools to estimate water levels in reservoirs and lakes(MDPI, 2020) Militino, Ana F.; Montesino San Martín, Manuel; Pérez Goya, Unai; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística, Informática y MatemáticasThe combination of freely accessible satellite imagery from multiple programs improves the spatio-temporal coverage of remote sensing data, but it exhibits barriers regarding the variety of web services, file formats, and data standards. Ris an open-source software environment with state-of-the-art statistical packages for the analysis of optical imagery. However, it lacks the tools for providing unified access to multi-program archives to customize and process the time series of images. This manuscript introduces RGISTools, a new software that solves these issues, and provides a working example on water mapping, which is a socially and environmentally relevant research field. The case study uses a digital elevation model and a rarely assessed combination of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery to determine the water level of a reservoir in Northern Spain. The case study demonstrates how to acquire and process time series of surface reflectance data in an efficient manner. Our method achieves reasonably accurate results, with a root mean squared error of 0.90 m. Future improvements of the package involve the expansion of the workflow to cover the processing of radar images. This should counteract the limitation of the cloud coverage with multi-spectral images.