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Guillén Grima, Francisco

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https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/49219

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Guillén Grima

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Francisco

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Ciencias de la Salud

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0000-0001-9749-8076

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Author: Guillén Aguinaga, Sara × Subject: Africa ×

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Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Maternal mortality in Africa: regional trends (2000-2017)
    (MDPI, 2022) Onambele, Luc; Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Forjaz, Maria Joao; Yoseph, Amanuel; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Arnedo Pena, Alberto; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa’s leading causes of death among women. The leading causes of maternal mortality in Africa are hemorrhage and eclampsia. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality (MM) in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) databank from 2000 to 2017, 2017 being the last date available. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of −3.0% (95% CI −2.9; −3,2%). All regions showed significant downward trends, with the greatest decreases in the South. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations’ sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in the South African region. The only region close to the United Nations’ target is the North African region. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. The West African region needs more extraordinary efforts to achieve the goals of the United Nations. Policies should ensure that all pregnant women have antenatal visits and give birth in a health facility staffed by specialized personnel.
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Trends, projections, and regional disparities of maternal mortality in Africa (1990-2030): an ARIMA forecasting approach
    (MDPI, 2023) Onambele, Luc; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido; Montejo, Rocío; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Aguinaga Ontoso, Enrique; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015–2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990–2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of −2.6% (95% CI −2.7; −2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 161 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 302 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa, averaging 182 per 100,000 births for the continent. Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, no region of Africa will likely reach the SDG target.
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    PublicationOpen Access
    Covid-19 impact on DTP vaccination trends in Africa: a joinpoint regression análisis
    (MDPI, 2023) Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Onambele, Luc; Aguinaga Ontoso, Enrique; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    Background: deaths due to vaccine-preventable diseases are one of the leading causes of death among African children. Vaccine coverage is an essential measure to decrease infant mortality. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the healthcare system and may have disrupted vaccine coverage. Methods: DTP third doses (DTP3) Vaccine Coverage was extracted from UNICEF databases from 2012 to 2021 (the last available date). Joinpoint regression was performed to detect the point where the trend changed. The annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) was calculated for Africa and the regions. We compared DTP3 vaccination coverage in 2019–2021 in each country using the Chi-square test. Result: During the whole period, the vaccine coverage in Africa increased with an Annual Percent change of 1.2% (IC 95% 0.9–1.5): We detected one joinpoint in 2019. In 2019–2021, there was a decrease in DTP3 coverage with an APC of −3.5 (95% −6.0; −0,9). (p < 0.001). Vaccination rates decreased in many regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Eastern and Southern Africa. There were 26 countries (Angola, Cabo Verde, Comoros, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eswatini, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, and Zimbabwe) where the vaccine coverage during the two years decreased. There were 10 countries (Angola, Cabo Verde, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eswatini, The Gambia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, and Sudan) where the joinpoint regression detected a change in the trend. Conclusions. COVID-19 has disrupted vaccine coverage, decreasing it all over Africa.