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Guillén Grima, Francisco

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https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/49219

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Guillén Grima

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Francisco

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Ciencias de la Salud

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0000-0001-9749-8076

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2022 - 20243
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Subject: Trends × Author: Guillén Aguinaga, Sara ×

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Now showing 1 - 3 of 3
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Maternal mortality in Africa: regional trends (2000-2017)
    (MDPI, 2022) Onambele, Luc; Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Forjaz, Maria Joao; Yoseph, Amanuel; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Arnedo Pena, Alberto; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa’s leading causes of death among women. The leading causes of maternal mortality in Africa are hemorrhage and eclampsia. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality (MM) in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) databank from 2000 to 2017, 2017 being the last date available. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of −3.0% (95% CI −2.9; −3,2%). All regions showed significant downward trends, with the greatest decreases in the South. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations’ sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in the South African region. The only region close to the United Nations’ target is the North African region. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. The West African region needs more extraordinary efforts to achieve the goals of the United Nations. Policies should ensure that all pregnant women have antenatal visits and give birth in a health facility staffed by specialized personnel.
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Has COVID-19 affected DTP3 vaccination in the Americas?
    (MDPI, 2024) Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Aguinaga Ontoso, Enrique; Rayón Valpuesta, Esperanza; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    Background: In the Americas, deaths by diseases avoidable with vaccines are a significant contributor to child mortality. An essential means of reducing this is through broad vaccine coverage. The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a potential disruption to vaccine coverage due to its effects on the healthcare system. Objectives: this study aims to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on DTP3 vaccination coverage in the Americas, investigating trends from 2012 to 2022 to identify significant changes, regional disparities, and the overall effect of the pandemic on progress towards global immunization targets. Methods: This study used the coverage data for the third dose of the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine (DTP3) pulled from UNICEF databases spanning 2012 to 2022. We conducted a Joinpoint regression to identify points of significant trend changes. The annual percentage change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for America and its regions. We also used segmented regression analysis. Using the Chi-square test, we compared DTP3 vaccination coverage for each country between 2019 and 2022. Results: Overall, America saw a decrease in vaccine coverage during this period, with an APC of −1.4 (95% CI −1.8; −1.0). This trend varied across regions. In North America, the decrease was negligible (−0.1% APC). South America showed the steepest decrease, with an APC of −2.5%. Central America also declined, with an APC of −1.3%. Our findings suggest a concerning trend of declining DTP-vaccination rates in the Americas, exacerbated in certain regions, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The absolute decrease in vaccine coverage in the Americas was −4% between 2019 and 2022, with the most important drop being in Central America (−7%). However, six countries reported increased vaccination rates post-COVID-19, led by Brazil, with a 7% increase. Conversely, twenty-two countries registered a decline in DTP3 vaccine coverage, with the average decrease being −7.37%. This decline poses an important challenge to achieving the WHO’s target of 90% coverage for the third dose of DTP by 2030, as evidenced by the reduction in the number of countries meeting this target from 2019 to 2022. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted vaccine coverage in America, leading to a decrease, especially across Central America.
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Trends, projections, and regional disparities of maternal mortality in Africa (1990-2030): an ARIMA forecasting approach
    (MDPI, 2023) Onambele, Luc; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido; Montejo, Rocío; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Aguinaga Ontoso, Enrique; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015–2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990–2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of −2.6% (95% CI −2.7; −2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 161 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 302 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa, averaging 182 per 100,000 births for the continent. Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, no region of Africa will likely reach the SDG target.