Open Access
A scalable approach for short-term disease forecasting in high spatial resolution areal data
(Wiley-VCH, 2023) Orozco Acosta, Erick; Riebler, Andrea; Adin Urtasun, Aritz; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
Short-term disease forecasting at specific discrete spatial resolutions has become a high-impact decision-support tool in health planning. However, when the number of areas is very large obtaining predictions can be computationally intensive or even unfeasible using standard spatiotemporal models. The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for short-term predictions in high-dimensional areal data based on a newly proposed ¿divide-and-conquer¿ approach. We assess the predictive performance of this method and other classical spatiotemporal models in a validation study that uses cancer mortality data for the 7907 municipalities of continental Spain. The new proposal outperforms traditional models in terms of mean absolute error, root mean square error, and interval score when forecasting cancer mortality 1, 2, and 3 years ahead. Models are implemented in a fully Bayesian framework using the well-known integrated nested Laplace estimation technique.
Open Access
Alleviating confounding in spatio-temporal areal models with an application on crimes against women in India
(SAGE Publications, 2021) Adin Urtasun, Aritz; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Hodges, James S.; Schnell, Patrick M.; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas
Assessing associations between a response of interest and a set of covariates in spatial areal models is the leitmotiv of ecological regression. However, the presence of spatially correlated random effects can mask or even bias estimates of such associations due to confounding effects if they are not carefully handled. Though potentially harmful, confounding issues have often been ignored in practice leading to wrong conclusions about the underlying associations between the response and the covariates. In spatio-temporal areal models, the temporal dimension may emerge as a new source of confounding, and the problem may be even worse. In this work, we propose two approaches to deal with confounding of fixed effects by spatial and temporal random effects, while obtaining good model predictions. In particular, restricted regression and an apparently—though in fact not—equivalent procedure using constraints are proposed within both fully Bayes and empirical Bayes approaches. The methods are compared in terms of fixed-effect estimates and model selection criteria. The techniques are used to assess the association between dowry deaths and certain socio-demographic covariates in the districts of Uttar Pradesh, India.
Open Access
High-dimensional order-free multivariate spatial disease mapping
(Springer, 2023) Vicente Fuenzalida, Gonzalo; Adin Urtasun, Aritz; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa, PJUPNA2001
Despite the amount of research on disease mapping in recent years, the use of multivariate models for areal spatial data remains limited due to difficulties in implementation and computational burden. These problems are exacerbated when the number of areas is very large. In this paper, we introduce an order-free multivariate scalable Bayesian modelling approach to smooth mortality (or incidence) risks of several diseases simultaneously. The proposal partitions the spatial domain into smaller subregions, fits multivariate models in each subdivision and obtains the posterior distribution of the relative risks across the entire spatial domain. The approach also provides posterior correlations among the spatial patterns of the diseases in each partition that are combined through a consensus Monte Carlo algorithm to obtain correlations for the whole study region. We implement the proposal using integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLA) in the R package bigDM and use it to jointly analyse colorectal, lung, and stomach cancer mortality data in Spanish municipalities. The new proposal allows for the analysis of large datasets and yields superior results compared to fitting a single multivariate model. Additionally, it facilitates statistical inference through local homogeneous models, which may be more appropriate than a global homogeneous model when dealing with a large number of areas.
Open Access
Identifying extreme COVID-19 mortality risks in English small areas: a disease cluster approach
(Springer, 2022) Adin Urtasun, Aritz; Congdon, P.; Santafé Rodrigo, Guzmán; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas
The COVID-19 pandemic is having a huge impact worldwide and has highlighted the extent of health inequalities between countries but also in small areas within a country. Identifying areas with high mortality is important both of public health mitigation in COVID-19 outbreaks, and of longer term efforts to tackle social inequalities in health. In this paper we consider different statistical models and an extension of a recent method to analyze COVID-19 related mortality in English small areas during the first wave of the epidemic in the first half of 2020. We seek to identify hotspots, and where they are most geographically concentrated, taking account of observed area factors as well as spatial correlation and clustering in regression residuals, while also allowing for spatial discontinuities. Results show an excess of COVID-19 mortality cases in small areas surrounding London and in other small areas in North-East and and North-West of England. Models alleviating spatial confounding show ethnic isolation, air quality and area morbidity covariates having a significant and broadly similar impact on COVID-19 mortality, whereas nursing home location seems to be slightly less important.
Open Access
Steering the synthesis of Fe3O4 nanoparticles under sonication by using a fractional factorial design
(Elsevier, 2021) Echeverría Morrás, Jesús; Moriones Jiménez, Paula; Garrido Segovia, Julián José; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Cervera Gabalda, Laura María; Garayo Urabayen, Eneko; Gómez Polo, Cristina; Pérez de Landazábal Berganzo, José Ignacio; Ciencias; Zientziak; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua
Superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles (MNPs) have the potential to act as heat sources in magnetic hyperthermia. The key parameter for this application is the specific absorption rate (SAR), which must be as large as possible in order to optimize the hyperthermia treatment. We applied a Plackett-Burman fractional factorial design to investigate the effect of total iron concentration, ammonia concentration, reaction temperature, sonication time and percentage of ethanol in the aqueous media on the properties of iron oxide MNPs. Characterization techniques included total iron content, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy, X-Ray Diffraction, High Resolution Transmission Electron Microscopy, and Dynamic Magnetization. The reaction pathway in the coprecipitation reaction depended on the initial Fe concentration. Samples synthesized from 0.220 mol L−1 Fe yielded magnetite and metastable precipitates of iron oxyhydroxides. An initial solution made up of 0.110 mol L−1 total Fe and either 0.90 or 1.20 mol L−1 NH3(aq) led to the formation of magnetite nanoparticles. Sonication of the reaction media promoted a phase transformation of metastable oxyhydroxides to crystalline magnetite, the development of crystallinity, and the increase of specific absorption rate under dynamic magnetization.
Open Access
A unique cardiac electrocardiographic 3D model. Toward interpretable AI diagnosis
(Elsevier, 2022) Rueda, Cristina; Rodríguez Collado, Alejandro; Fernández, Itziar; Canedo, Christian; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Larriba, Yolanda; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2
Mathematical models of cardiac electrical activity are one of the most important tools for elucidating information about heart diagnostics. In this paper, we present an efficient mathematical formulation for this modeling simple enough to be easily parameterized and rich enough to provide realistic signals. It relies on a five dipole representation of the cardiac electric source, each one associated with the well-known waves of the electrocardiogram signal. Beyond the physical basis of the model, the parameters are physiologically interpretable as they characterize the wave shape, similar to what a physician would look for in signals, thus making them very useful in diagnosis. The model accurately reproduces the electrocardiogram signals of any diseased or healthy heart. This new discovery represents a significant advance in electrocardiography research. It is especially useful for diagnosis, patient follow-up or decision-making on new therapies; is also a promising tool for well-performing, transparent and interpretable AI approaches.
Open Access
Logistic regression versus XGBoost for detecting burned areas using satellite images
(Springer, 2024) Militino, Ana F.; Goyena Baroja, Harkaitz; Pérez Goya, Unai; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
Classical statistical methods prove advantageous for small datasets, whereas machine learning algorithms can excel with larger datasets. Our paper challenges this conventional wisdom by addressing a highly significant problem: the identification of burned areas through satellite imagery, that is a clear example of imbalanced data. The methods are illustrated in the North-Central Portugal and the North-West of Spain in October 2017 within a multi-temporal setting of satellite imagery. Daily satellite images are taken from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products. Our analysis shows that a classical Logistic regression (LR) model competes on par, if not surpasses, a widely employed machine learning algorithm called the extreme gradient boosting algorithm (XGBoost) within this particular domain.
Open Access
Small area variations in non-affective first-episode psychosis: the role of socioeconomic and environmental factors
(Springer, 2023) Gutiérrez, Gerardo; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Aranguren Conde, Lidia; Corrales, Asier; Gil Berrozpe, Gustavo José; Librero, Julián; Sánchez Torres, Ana María; Peralta Martín, Víctor; García de Jalón, Elena; Cuesta, Manuel J.; Martínez, Matilde; Otero, María; Azcárate, Leire; Pereda, Nahia; Monclús, Fernando; Moreno, Laura; Fernández, Alba; Ariz, Mari Cruz; Sabaté, Alba; Aquerreta, Ainhoa; Aguirre, Izaskun; Lizarbe, Tadea; Begué, María José; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2
Background: There is strong evidence supporting the association between environmental factors and increased risk of non-affective psychotic disorders. However, the use of sound statistical methods to account for spatial variations associated with environmental risk factors, such as urbanicity, migration, or deprivation, is scarce in the literature. Methods: We studied the geographical distribution of non-affective first-episode psychosis (NA-FEP) in a northern region of Spain (Navarra) during a 54-month period considering area-level socioeconomic indicators as putative explanatory variables. We used several Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models to smooth the standardized incidence ratios (SIR). We included neighborhood-level variables in the spatial models as covariates. Results: We identified 430 NA-FEP cases over a 54-month period for a population at risk of 365,213 inhabitants per year. NA-FEP incidence risks showed spatial patterning and a significant ecological association with the migrant population, unemployment, and consumption of anxiolytics and antidepressants. The high-risk areas corresponded mostly to peripheral urban regions; very few basic health sectors of rural areas emerged as high-risk areas in the spatial models with covariates. Discussion: Increased rates of unemployment, the migrant population, and consumption of anxiolytics and antidepressants showed significant associations linked to the spatial-geographic incidence of NA-FEP. These results may allow targeting geographical areas to provide preventive interventions that potentially address modifiable environmental risk factors for NA-FEP. Further investigation is needed to understand the mechanisms underlying the associations between environmental risk factors and the incidence of NA-FEP.
Open Access
Space-time analysis of ovarian cancer mortality rates by age groups in Spanish provinces (1989-2015)
(BioMed Central, 2020) Trandafir, Paula Camelia; Adin Urtasun, Aritz; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2
Background: Ovarian cancer is a silent and largely asymptomatic cancer, leading to late diagnosis and worse prognosis. The late-stage detection and low survival rates, makes the study of the space-time evolution of ovarian cancer particularly relevant. In addition, research of this cancer in small areas (like provinces or counties) is still scarce. Methods: The study presented here covers all ovarian cancer deaths for women over 50 years of age in the provinces of Spain during the period 1989-2015. Spatio-temporal models have been fitted to smooth ovarian cancer mortality rates in age groups [50,60), [60,70), [70,80), and [80,+), borrowing information from spatial and temporal neighbours. Model fitting and inference has been carried out using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) technique. Results: Large differences in ovarian cancer mortality among the age groups have been found, with higher mortality rates in the older age groups. Striking differences are observed between northern and southern Spain. The global temporal trends (by age group) reveal that the evolution of ovarian cancer over the whole of Spain has remained nearly constant since the early 2000s. Conclusion: Differences in ovarian cancer mortality exist among the Spanish provinces, years, and age groups. As the exact causes of ovarian cancer remain unknown, spatio-temporal analyses by age groups are essential to discover inequalities in ovarian cancer mortality. Women over 60 years of age should be the focus of follow-up studies as the mortality rates remain constant since 2002. High-mortality provinces should also be monitored to look for specific risk factors.
Open Access
Using RGISTools to estimate water levels in reservoirs and lakes
(MDPI, 2020) Militino, Ana F.; Montesino San Martín, Manuel; Pérez Goya, Unai; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas
The combination of freely accessible satellite imagery from multiple programs improves the spatio-temporal coverage of remote sensing data, but it exhibits barriers regarding the variety of web services, file formats, and data standards. Ris an open-source software environment with state-of-the-art statistical packages for the analysis of optical imagery. However, it lacks the tools for providing unified access to multi-program archives to customize and process the time series of images. This manuscript introduces RGISTools, a new software that solves these issues, and provides a working example on water mapping, which is a socially and environmentally relevant research field. The case study uses a digital elevation model and a rarely assessed combination of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 imagery to determine the water level of a reservoir in Northern Spain. The case study demonstrates how to acquire and process time series of surface reflectance data in an efficient manner. Our method achieves reasonably accurate results, with a root mean squared error of 0.90 m. Future improvements of the package involve the expansion of the workflow to cover the processing of radar images. This should counteract the limitation of the cloud coverage with multi-spectral images.