Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel

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https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/48436

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Abinzano Guillén

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María Isabel

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Gestión de Empresas

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INARBE. Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics

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0000-0002-4658-8677

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88665

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7240

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Author: Bonilla Acosta, Harold × Subject: Bookmakers' spread ×

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    PublicationOpen Access
    Suspense and surprise: the role of bookmakers' spreads
    (SAGE, 2024-10-16) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Bonilla Acosta, Harold; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
    Uncertainty in a competition's final result can affect the event's demand via suspenseand surprise. Based on a sample of more than 50,000 professional tennis matches, thispaper shows how information from bookmaker prices, implied probabilities, and pricespreads contain relevant information that explains the uncertainty in the final results of the matches. There is a negative relation between the implied probability for the favorite and the different measures of match result uncertainty proposed and a positive rela-tionship between the spread and these measures when the bookmaker sets prices based on information. This second relation disappears when the bookmaker setsprices based on betting volumes. The results have potential implications both for organizers in scheduling matches with higher levels of uncertainty and for punters in settingstrategies that predict the exact result of a match.