Open Access
I Congreso Salud, Desastres y Desarrollo Sostenible: libro congreso
(2022) Azcárate Camio, Cristina; Cildoz Esquíroz, Marta; Frías Paredes, Laura; Ibarra, Amaia; Galbete Jiménez, Arkaitz; García de Vicuña Bilbao, Daniel; Gastón Romeo, Martín; Moler Cuiral, José Antonio; Mallor Giménez, Fermín; Jean Louis, Clint; Institute of Smart Cities - ISC
El congreso se plantea como un foro de encuentro de investigadores del área de Investigación Operativa con interés en aplicaciones a la salud, los desastres y el desarrollo sostenible, y los profesionales de la toma de decisiones concernientes a los ámbitos anteriores. Este encuentro promueve el intercambio de conocimiento y experiencias entre Universidad y Servicios de Salud para afrontar retos asociados al acceso de la población a unos servicios de salud de calidad y a la gestión del riesgo creciente de desastres naturales o provocados por el ser humano. El envejecimiento de la población y el desarrollo tecnológico plantean nuevos entornos para la provisión de los servicios de salud, en los que su correcta planificación y gestión debe contribuir a garantizar su eficiencia y sostenibilidad. El creciente impacto en términos de vidas humanas y daños económicos causados por desastres naturales y no naturales, como incendios, inundaciones, terremotos, fugas industriales, pandemias, etc. precisa de su comprensión para desarrollar estrategias de prevención y elaborar planes efectivos de respuesta.
Open Access
Grape stems as preservative in Tempranillo wine
(2022) Pires Nogueira, Danielle; Jiménez Moreno, Nerea; Esparza Catalán, Irene; Moler Cuiral, José Antonio; Ancín Azpilicueta, Carmen; Zientziak; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Ciencias; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas
SO2 is the most widely used preservative in the wine industry. However, there are several drawbacks related with the use of SO2 in wine, such as, its toxicity and the unpleasant odor in case of excess [1]. These reasons justify the importance of searching alternatives to reduce or eliminate this preservative from wine. Polyphenol rich extracts from agri-food industry by-products have been studied as a replacement for their high antioxidant activity, and positive results reported [2]. The grapes stems are discarded early on in the winemaking process, in spite of containing large amounts of polyphenolic compounds with antioxidant activity. The aim of this work was to determine whether the ground stem and its extract had the potential to totally or partially replace SO2 in wine.
Open Access
Performance measures in dose-finding experiments
(John Wiley & Sons, 2020) Flournoy, Nancy; Moler Cuiral, José Antonio; Plo, Fernando; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika
In the first phase of pharmaceutical development, and assuming that the probability of positive response increases with dose, the main statistical goal is to estimate a percentile of the dose–response function for a given target Г. We compare the Maximum Likelihood and centred isotonic regression estimators of the target dose and we discuss several performance criteria to assess inferential precision, the amount of toxicity exposure and the trade-off between them for a set of some exemplary adaptive designs. We compare these designs using graphical tools. Several scenarios are considered using simulation, including the use of several start-up rules, the change of slope of the dose-toxicity function at the target dose and also different theoretical models, as logistic, normal or skew-normal distribution functions.
Open Access
Vegetable waste extracts as enhancers of baculovirus infections
(Elsevier, 2023) Martínez Inda, Blanca; Simón de Goñi, Oihane; Jiménez Moreno, Nerea; Esparza Catalán, Irene; Moler Cuiral, José Antonio; Caballero Murillo, Primitivo; Ancín Azpilicueta, Carmen; Ciencias; Zientziak; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Multidisciplinary Research in Applied Biology - IMAB; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2
Vegetable waste extracts (VWE) contain a great variety of antioxidants such as polyphenols, which have shown to potentiate baculovirus infections, making them ingredients for pest control ingredients. In the present study, the mortality enhancement of different vegetable extracts obtained from food residues when combined with baculoviruses was evaluated. Extracts from spent coffee (E2), rosehip (E17), asparagus (E28), artichoke (E29), beet stalks (E32) and banana peel (E37) were selected as they increased mortality of Spodoptera littoralis nucleopolyhedrovirus (SpliNPV) in second instar S. littoralis larvae, when comparing with the virus inoculation alone. Extracts were assayed at 1 % w/v. In S. littoralis-SpliNPV system, the selected extracts reduced the median lethal concentration (LC50) of SpliNPV against second instar larvae. The E37 extract presented the highest potentiation, as it reduced the LC50 13.61 times, while the rest of the extracts presented LC50 reductions from 3.71 to 7.72-fold. In Spodoptera exigua-SeMNPV (Spodoptera exigua multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus) system, none of the extracts decreased the LC50 of SeMNPV. In contrast, in Spodoptera frugiperda-SfMNPV (Spodoptera frugiperda multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus) system, E2 showed the greatest potentiating effect. In the heterologous systems, none of the extracts tested increased the effective host range of SfMNPV, AcMNPV (Autographa californica multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus), and MbMNPV (Mamestra brassicae multiple nucleopolyhedrovirus) in second instar S. littoralis larvae. Thus, the viral enhancing effect of VWE was host-pathogen and instar dependent. However, the potentiation effect of the extracts could not be directly related with the antioxidants content of the extracts.
Open Access
The K-in-a-row design as a semi-Markov process
(2025) Flournoy, Nancy; Oron, Assaf; Moler Cuiral, José Antonio; Sada Allo, Maider; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika
Estimating the value of a stimulus variable that has a prespecified percentage of successes is common in many fields, and known generally as “dose-finding”. In most practical applications, only a few values of the stimuli can be applied to the statistical units that participate in the experiment. K-in-a-Row Up-and-Down is a popular experimental procedure that sequentially allocates statistical units to the permissible values of a stimulus variable, using simple invariant rules. Despite having been in use for 60 years, K-in-a-Row’s statistical properties are still not broadly understood. We show that it is naturally modeled by a semi-Markov process, and as far as we know it is the first stochastic design to appear as such. The stationary distribution is characterized assuming only that the success probability increases with the values of the stimuli. We prove the strong unimodality of the asymptotic distribution of the proportions of stimuli specific allocations. Thus the mode of the stimuli-specific allocation serves as a summary measure of location for these designs, and we explicitly identify it. We also show how design parameters can be chosen to locate the stationary distribution over the percentile of interest.
Open Access
Influence of the slope in percentile estimation through binary regression for dose-finding experiments
(Taylor & Francis, 2024-12-04) Flournoy, Nancy; Moler Cuiral, José Antonio; Sada Allo, Maider; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
Dose-finding experiments aim to estimate the dose having a specified proportion of positive responses by collecting data in the vicinity of this unknown target dose. The importance of estimating the slope as well as a target dose has been recognized long ago in the literature. With large slopes at the target dose, a small error in the target dose estimate will be far from the target. Alternatively, with small slopes at the target, a large error conveys negligible changes on the associated response rate. Thus a reasonably reliable estimate of the slope of the response function at the target dose should accompany every reported target dose estimate. Assuming a monotone increasing dose-response relationship, we work with a sizable catalogue of binary location-scale regression models parameterized by the target dose and the slope at the target. A compound design is proposed for the joint estimation of both features.
Open Access
Reducing SO₂ doses in red wines by using grape stem extracts as antioxidants
(MDPI, 2020) Esparza Catalán, Irene; Martínez Inda, Blanca; Cimminelli, María José; Moler Cuiral, José Antonio; Jiménez Moreno, Nerea; Ancín Azpilicueta, Carmen; Zientziak; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Ciencias; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua, VARASVI PI022 and PI038
SO₂ is a very important wine preservative. However, there are several drawbacks associated with the use of SO₂ in wine. The aim of this work is to evaluate the effect of the partial substitution of SO₂ in the Tempranillo wine by a Mazuelo grape stem extract and by a commercial vine wood extract (Vinetan®). The results were compared with a control sample (with no addition of any extract). After 12 months of storage in a bottle, total anthocyanin content, together with total polyphenol and flavonoid content were slightly higher for control wines than for those treated with extracts. These differences were of little relevance, as no differences in antioxidant activity were found between any of the wines at the end of the study. The sensory analysis revealed that the use of both extracts as partial substitutes of SO₂ could lead to wines with good organoleptic properties, similar or even better to the control ones.
Open Access
Psychosocial adjustment of in-home caregivers of family members with dementia and Parkinson's disease: a comparative study
(Hindawi, 2020) Lopes Dos Santos, María Cristina; Navarta Sánchez, María Victoria; Moler Cuiral, José Antonio; García Lautre, Ignacio; Anaut Bravo, Sagrario; Portillo Vega, María Carmen; Sociología y Trabajo Social; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Soziologia eta Gizarte Lana; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika
Neurodegenerative diseases such as Parkinson's and dementia are highly prevalent worldwide. People who suffer from these disorders often receive in-home care and assistance from family members, who must dedicate a considerable amount of time to the care recipient. The study of family caregivers' psychosocial adjustment to the degenerative processes of both conditions is of interest due to the implications for the quality of life of both the care receiver and the caregiver, as well as other family members. This study compares the psychosocial adjustment of family members who care for people with dementia and Parkinson's disease and identifies the main sociodemographic variables that affect the processes of adjustment to both conditions. To this end, the Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale (PAIS-SR) and a sociodemographic form were administered to 157 family caregivers in Navarre, Spain. The results show that adjustment to the disease in family caregivers of people with Parkinson's disease and dementia is, in general, satisfactory and related to variables such as place of residence, income, and employment status. The illness itself (Parkinson's or dementia), however, is found to be the most influential variable in the level of psychosocial adjustment.
Open Access
Designing experiments for estimating an appropriate outlet size for a silo type problem
(Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2023) López Fidalgo, Jesús; May, Caterina; Moler Cuiral, José Antonio; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika
Jam formation is a problem that may occur when granular material is discharged by gravity from a silo. The estimation of the minimum outlet size, which guarantees that the time to the next jamming event is long enough, can be crucial in the industry. The time is modeled by an exponential distribution with two unknown parameters, and this goal translates to precise estimation of a nonlinear transformation of the parameters. We obtain c-optimum experimental designs with that purpose, applying the graphic Elfving method. Because the optimal experimental designs depend on the nominal values of the parameters, we conduct a sensitivity analysis on our dataset. Finally, a simulation study checks the performance of the approximations, first with the Fisher Information matrix, then with the linearization of the function to be estimated. The results are useful for experimenting in a laboratory and then translating the results to a real scenario. From the application we develop a general methodology for estimating a one-dimensional transformation of the parameters of a nonlinear model.
Open Access
Evaluation of grape stems and grape stem extracts for sulfur dioxide replacement during grape wine production
(Elsevier, 2023) Pires Nogueira, Danielle; Jiménez Moreno, Nerea; Esparza Catalán, Irene; Moler Cuiral, José Antonio; Ferreira-Santos, Pedro; Sagüés Sarasa, Ana; Teixeira, José António; Ancín Azpilicueta, Carmen; Ciencias; Zientziak; Estadística e Investigación Operativa; Estatistika eta Ikerketa Operatiboa; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2
Sulfur dioxide (SO2), the main preservative in wine, may affect the sensory properties of the wines, as well as cause allergic reactions and headaches in sensitive people. The aim of this work was to evaluate the replacement of SO2 in Tempranillo wines with Mazuelo grape stem products. Five Tempranillo red wines were elaborated: positive control (60 mg/L SO2); negative control with no preservatives; Mazuelo extract (200 mg/L); Mazuelo extract combined with SO2 (100 mg/L + 20 mg/L); and Mazuelo stem (400 mg/L). The oenological parameters, antioxidant capacity, total phenolic (TP), total flavonoids (TF) and total anthocyanins (TA) contents were determined. Additionally, individual phenols were analyzed by HPLC-DAD-FLD. The spectrophotometric analyses showed that the wines had similar antioxidant capacities and concentrations of TP and TF. However, TA was more affected by the lack of SO2 as anthocyanins presented higher concentrations in positive control samples. The concentrations of individual phenols followed a similar path in all samples. Wines containing sulfites were more similar than the other treatments. However, these similarities were not reflected on the sensory analysis performed, as triangle test did not show differences between the wine with extract addition and the positive control wine. Therefore, Mazuelo stem extract could be a possible strategy for SO2 replacement. Nevertheless, further studies are necessary to confirm the potential of grape stem extracts as wine preservative.