Long-term outcomes of first-admission psychosis: a naturalistic 21-year follow-up study of symptomatic, functional and personal recovery and their baseline predictors

This study was aimed at characterizing long-term outcomes of first-admission psychosis and examining their baseline predictors. Participants were assessed at baseline for 38 candidate predictors and re-assessed after a median follow-up of 21 years for symptomatic, functional, and personal recovery. Associations between the predictors and the outcomes were examined using univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. At baseline, 623 subjects were assessed for eligibility, 510 met the inclusion/exclusion criteria and 243 were successfully followed-up (57.3% of the survivors). At follow-up, the percentages of subjects achieving symptomatic, functional, and personal recovery were 51.9%, 52.7%, and 51.9%, respectively; 74.2% met at least one recovery criterion and 32.5% met all three recovery criteria. Univariate analysis showed that outcomes were predicted by a broad range of variables, including sociodemographics, familial risk, early risk factors, premorbid functioning, triggering factors, illness-onset features, neurological abnormalities, deficit symptoms and early response to treatment. Many of the univariate predictors became nonsignificant when entered into a hierarchical multivariate model, indicating a substantial degree of interdependence. Each single outcome component was independently predicted by parental socioeconomic status, family history of schizophrenia spectrum disorders, early developmental delay, childhood adversity, and mild drug use. Spontaneous dyskinesia/parkinsonism, neurological soft signs and completion of high school remained specific predictors of symptomatic, functional, and personal outcomes, respectively. Predictors explained between 27.5% and 34.3% of the variance in the outcomes. In conclusion, our results indicate a strong potential for background and first-episode characteristics in predicting long-term outcomes of psychotic disorders, which may inform future intervention research.