Spatial inequality, civil conflict and cells: a dynamic spatial probit approach

Abstract

This study examines the link between spatial income inequality and civil conflict in Africa. To that end we extend traditional empirical models of conflict to account for both endogenous and exogenous spatial interaction effects in the process of conflict by means of modern spatial econometric techniques. Using a geographically disaggregated annual high-resolution cell data for a sample of African countries during the period 1998 to 2013, we quantify the effect of spatial inequality on the probability of conflict incidence. Estimates show the existence of a positive and statistically significant relationship between spatial income inequality and conflict in African regions. This is partly due to the role played by spatial spillovers induced by spatial inequality in neighboring regions. The observed link is robust to the inclusion in the analysis of different explanatory variables that may affect both conflict and spatial inequality such as the level of economic development, the endowment of natural resources, infrastructures, geographical conditions, population density, fractionalization, polarization, social exclusion, or the share of urban population. The observed positive effect does not depend on the the level of data disaggregation, the type of conflict, the spatial inequality metric used in the analysis and the econometric specification employed to capture the nature of spatial spillovers.