Corredor Casado, María PilarFerrer Zubiate, ElenaSantamaría Aquilué, Rafael2015-10-272017-09-0120140969-593110.1016/j.ibusrev.2014.01.001https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/18659This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.application/pdfeng© 2014 Elsevier Ltd. The manuscript version is made available under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license.Analyst forecastsOptimismStrategic BehaviourInvestor sentimentCognitive BiasArtículo / ArtikuluaAcceso abierto / Sarbide irekiainfo:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess