Growing pains: can family policies revert the decline of fertility in Spain?
Fecha
2023Versión
Acceso abierto / Sarbide irekia
Tipo
Artículo / Artikulua
Versión
Versión publicada / Argitaratu den bertsioa
Identificador del proyecto
MICINN//PID2020– 112517GB‐I00
Impacto
|
10.17645/si.v11i1.6141
Resumen
This article aims to analyze the capability of family policies to reverse the sharp decline in fertility that has been observed in
Spain in recent decades. The analysis was carried out by applying two mathematical techniques: the genetic algorithm and
the strategic scenarios. Firstly, a mathematical model was designed and validated adjusting the combined performance of
fertility and family pol ...
[++]
This article aims to analyze the capability of family policies to reverse the sharp decline in fertility that has been observed in
Spain in recent decades. The analysis was carried out by applying two mathematical techniques: the genetic algorithm and
the strategic scenarios. Firstly, a mathematical model was designed and validated adjusting the combined performance of
fertility and family policies during the 2008–2019 period. Subsequently, this model was applied to the future (2020–2060)
to extrapolate the evolution of fertility considering different models of family policies. The results demonstrate that a
model of family policies that is coherent with other socially desirable objectives, such as gender and social equality, will be
insufficient to reverse the current downward trend in fertility. Therefore, these outcomes point to the need to articulate
and harmonize diverse public policies considering the principles of equality and well‐being to modify the recent decline in
fertility. An increase in fertility must therefore be identified as a socially desirable goal and public policies must be adapted
to this objective, in the understanding that fertility not only requires family policies but also their coherence with the
employment and educational policies and work–life balance mechanisms offered by public institutions. [--]
Materias
Family policies,
Fertility,
Genetic algorithms,
Spain,
Strategic scenarios
Editor
Cogitatio
Publicado en
Social Inclusion, 2023, Volume 11, Issue 1, Pages 1-13
Departamento
Universidad Pública de Navarra. Departamento de Sociología y Trabajo Social /
Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa. Soziologia eta Gizarte Lana Saila
Versión del editor
Entidades Financiadoras
This study was conducted under the competitive
research project Problemas no Lineales en Ciencias
Naturales y Ciencias Sociales (Nonlinear Problems
in Natural Sciences and Social Sciences; PID2020-
112517GB-I00), funded by the Spanish Ministry of
Sciences and Innovation. It was also supported by the
Department of Social Analysis of the Carlos III University
of Madrid.