A scalable approach for short-term disease forecasting in high spatial resolution areal data
Fecha
2023Versión
Acceso abierto / Sarbide irekia
Tipo
Artículo / Artikulua
Versión
Versión publicada / Argitaratu den bertsioa
Identificador del proyecto
Impacto
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10.1002/bimj.202300096
Resumen
Short-term disease forecasting at specific discrete spatial resolutions has become a high-impact decision-support tool in health planning. However, when the number of areas is very large obtaining predictions can be computationally intensive or even unfeasible using standard spatiotemporal models. The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for short-term predictions in high-dimensional area ...
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Short-term disease forecasting at specific discrete spatial resolutions has become a high-impact decision-support tool in health planning. However, when the number of areas is very large obtaining predictions can be computationally intensive or even unfeasible using standard spatiotemporal models. The purpose of this paper is to provide a method for short-term predictions in high-dimensional areal data based on a newly proposed ¿divide-and-conquer¿ approach. We assess the predictive performance of this method and other classical spatiotemporal models in a validation study that uses cancer mortality data for the 7907 municipalities of continental Spain. The new proposal outperforms traditional models in terms of mean absolute error, root mean square error, and interval score when forecasting cancer mortality 1, 2, and 3 years ahead. Models are implemented in a fully Bayesian framework using the well-known integrated nested Laplace estimation technique. [--]
Materias
cancer projections,
disease mapping,
high-dimensional data,
integrated nested Laplace approximation
Editor
Wiley-VCH
Publicado en
Biometrical Journal (2023), vol. 65(8)
Departamento
Universidad Pública de Navarra. Departamento de Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas /
Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa. Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika Saila /
Universidad Pública de Navarra/Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa. Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2
Versión del editor
Entidades Financiadoras
This research has been supported by the project PID2020-113125RB- I00/MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 (principal investigator: M.Dolores Ugarte). Open access funding provided by Universidad Pública de Navarra.
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