Documentos de trabajo DE - ES Lan Gaiak
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Browsing Documentos de trabajo DE - ES Lan Gaiak by Department/Institute "Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE"
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Publication Open Access Addressing oil spills and agricultural productivity. Evidence of pollution in Nigeria(2021) Manotas Hidalgo, Beatriz; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaThis paper examines how the pollution generated by oil operations in Nigeria can affect agricultural total factor productivity. I analyze oil spills, which are the main ecological disaster in Nigeria and lead to major environmental, economic, and social problems. Following a consumer-producer household framework, and applying a difference-and-difference approach, I estimate an agricultural production function. I find that farmers located less than 10 kilometers from oil spills suffer a relative reduction in agricultural output of around 2.73%. I also examine alternative mechanisms and find that oil-spill pollution can explain my results. I detect less owner-occupied land and a drop in labor income in urban areas close to oil spills, which could also be explained by a decrease in the labor productivity component. This study highlights an externality through which the oil industry affects living conditions in rural areas and stresses the importance of clean-up in areas close to oil spills.Publication Open Access The costs of hyperinflation: Germany 1923(2021) Galofré-Vilà, Gregori; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaI study the link between monetary policy and populism by looking at the hyperinflation in Germany in 1923, one of the worst spells of inflation in history, and the Nazi electoral boost in 1933. Contrary to received wisdom, inflation data for over 500 cities show that areas more affected by inflation did not see a higher vote share for the Nazi party in each and every German federal election between 1924 and 1933. Yet, the inflation does predict the vote share of the Volksrechtspartei, an association-turned-party of inflation victims, and the vote share of the Social Democrats. In places where hyperinflation was higher, mortality and anti-Semitism also increased. Unobservables areunlikely to account for these results.Publication Open Access COVID-19 pandemic and economic scenarios for Ontario(2020) Casares Polo, Miguel; Gomme, Paul; Khan, Hashmat; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaTo study the efficacy of the public policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic, we develop a model of the rich interactions between epidemiology and socioeconomic choices. Preferences feature a 'fear of death' that lead individuals to reduce their social activity and work time in the face of the pandemic. The aggregate effect of these reductions is to slow the spread of the coronavirus. We calibrate the model, including public policies, to developments in Ontario in spring 2020. The model fits the epidemiological data quite well, including the second wave starting in late 2020. We find that socioeconomic interventions work well in the short term, resulting in a rapid drop off in new cases. The long run, however, is governed chiefly by health developments. Welfare cost calculations point to synergies between the health and socioeconomic measures.Publication Open Access Did US business dynamism recover in the 2010s?(2021) Aguilera Bravo, Asier; Casares Polo, Miguel; Khan, Hashmat; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaWe provide evidence that both firm and establishment entry rates in the US have been increasing over the past decade, seemingly ending the secular decline observed over previous decades. However, the job-size of new businesses relative to incumbents has decreased substantially. Controlling for these opposite trends reveals that the size-adjusted entry rate continues to decline.Publication Open Access A dynamic model of COVID-19: contagion and implications of isolation enforcement(2020) Casares Polo, Miguel; Khan, Hashmat; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaWe present a dynamic model that produces day-to-day changes in key variables due to the COVID-19 contagion: the number of ever infected people, currently infected, deaths, healed, and infected people who require hospitalization. The model is carefully calibrated to Spanish data and we conduct simulation exercises to study the role of isolation measures to contain the virus spread. We find that virus containment from isolation exhibits increasing returns. Our model simulations show that the State of Alarm intervention of the Spanish government on March 14th, 2020 reduces deaths by almost 85%, and lowers the maximum number of infected people who need daily hospitalization by a factor of 1/12. The simulations also indicate that both the timing and the intensity of the isolation enforcement are key for the evolution of the virus spread and the smoothing of the hospitalization needs.Publication Open Access Fair competition design(2018) Arlegi Pérez, Ricardo; Dimitrov, Dinko; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaWe study the impact of two basic principles of fairness on the structure of competition systems and perform our analysis by focusing on sports competitions. The first principle states that equally strong players should have the same chances of being the final winner, while the second principle requires that the competition system should not favor weaker players. We apply these requirements to a class of competitions which includes, but is not limited to, the sport tournament systems that are most commonly used in practice, such as round-robin tournaments and different kinds of knockout competitions, and we characterize the structures satisfying these requirements. In our results, a new competition structure that we call an antler is found to play a referential role. Finally, we show that the class of fair competition systems becomes rather small when both fairness principles are jointly applied.Publication Open Access Introducing the AFOM as an alternative metric to AUC for imbalanced data(2024-06-10) Perales; Economía; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEDiagnostic testing refers to the classification of the presence or absence of specific conditions using an index variable. Commonly utilized tools in this domain include the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and their Area Under the Curve (AUC). These methodologies assess the ability of various thresholds of the index variable to correctly classify a binary outcome. However, AUC can provide an overly optimistic assessment when applied to imbalanced data and may evaluate thresholds that lack practical relevance in real-world scenarios. To address these limitations, our study introduces the area under the FOM curve (AFOM) as a novel metric for evaluating diagnostic performance. The AFOM metric prioritizes the most relevant thresholds, making it less dependent on prevalence rates. We demonstrate that AFOM provides a more consistent measure of diagnostic ability when prevalence is low, favoring those thresholds with less quantity disagreement.Publication Open Access A lesson from history? The 1918 influenza pandemic and the rise of Italian fascism: a cross-city quantitative and historical text qualitative analysis(2021) Galofré-Vilà, Gregori; Gómez León, María; Stuckler, David; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaObjectives: Evidence linking past experiences of worsening health and support for radical political views has generated concerns about the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The influenza pandemic that began in 1918 had a devastating impact on mortality. We test the hypothesis that deaths from the 1918 influenza pandemic contributed to the rise of fascism in Italy. Study design: Cross-sectional study comparing votes for the Fascist party and other mainstream parties in Italian cities in the general election of April 1924, using data that Corbetta and Piretti collected from state archives with yearly cause-specific mortality data, taken from the Italian historical statistical books (Statistica Delle Cause di Morte, edited by the Ministero per L'Industria, Il Commercio e Il Lavoro). Methods: We linked city-level regression models of Fascist vote shares in the 1924 election on changes in deaths from influenza in 1918 in 73 Italian cities, adjusting for socioeconomic factors, city-characteristics and regional dummies. To provide a 'thicker' interpretation of these quantitative patterns, we applied historical text mining to the newspaper Il Popolo d'Italia (Mussolini's newspaper). Results: 4.1 million Italians contracted influenza and about 500,000 died. In cities with influenza death rates the Fascists gained higher vote shares. Each additional 1influenza death/1,000 population was associated with a 3.12-percentage-point increase in vote share for the Fascist party in 1924 (95 % confidence interval [CI]=0.44 to 5.79). These results were consistent even after adjusting for casualties in World War I and indicators of social conflicts and economic hardship. There was no association between higher mortality and vote share for the Socialist or Communist parties. Historical archival analysis also shows how the Fascists exploited the pandemic for political gain. Conclusions: Death rates from influenza in Italian cities were associated with a higher share of votes for the Fascist party. Our observations are consistent with evidence from other contexts that worsening mortality rates can fuel radical politics. Unequal impacts of pandemics may have polarizing political consequences.Publication Embargo On staggered prices and optimal inflation(2019) Aguilera Bravo, Asier; Casares Polo, Miguel; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate PublikoaThis paper computes the steady-state optimal rate of inflation assuming two different sticky-price specifications, Calvo (1983) and Taylor (1980), in a model with monopolistic competition. The optimal rate of inflation in steady state is always positive. This result is robust to changes in the degree of price stickiness. In both cases of staggered prices, the optimal rate of inflation is approximately equal to the ratio between the rate of discount and the Dixit-Stiglitz elasticity.Publication Open Access The other halves of fascist Italy: income inequality from dynamic social tables, 1900-1950(2021) Gómez León, María; Gabbuti, Giacomo; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaThis paper documents new, yearly estimates of overall income inequality for Italy, from the first industrial 'take-off' to the eve of the ‘Economic Miracle’, contributing both to the comparative literature on the evolution of inequality in the interwar decades, and to the historiography of Italian fascism and its distributive legacy. By constructing dynamic social tables, we are able to obtain the first comprehensive assessment of all major components of Italian society, shedding light on overlooked ‘halves’ (women, self-employed workers, capital earners), and to consistently compare these results to estimates available for Britain, Germany and Spain. We identify a steep decline in inequality (especially within-labour) after the Great War, followed by a reversal between 1922 and 1931, a relative stability, and a further increase during WWII, this time driven by capital income.Publication Open Access Provincial health inequalities in Spain since 1860(2021) Galofré-Vilà, Gregori; Gómez León, María; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaUsing annual mortality rates at the provincial level for men and women, we construct a Gini index to estimate changes in regional health inequalities since 1860 in Spain. We find a long steady decline in health inequality across provinces from 1860 until today, interrupted only by World War I and the Spanish Civil War. Franco’s 40-year legacy in terms of health is one of health inequality. Today, regional differences across provinces are at their lowest historical levels.Publication Open Access Wars, depression, and fascism: income inequality in Italy, 1900-1950(2021) Gómez León, María; Gabbuti, Giacomo; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaThis paper documents new yearly estimates of income inequality in Italy from 1900 to 1950. By constructing dynamic social tables, we obtain the first comprehensive assessment of all major components of Italian society, as well as to consistent comparable inequality estimates to those available for Britain, Germany and Spain. In line with other European countries, Italy shows short-term inequality changes during this period. We identify a steep decline in inequality in Italy (especially within-labour) after WWI, followed by a reversal between 1922 and 1931, a relative stability, and a further increase during WWII, this time driven by capital income.