ISC - Institute of Smart Cities
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Browsing ISC - Institute of Smart Cities by Department/Institute "Estatistika eta Ikerketa Operatiboa"
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Publication Open Access Assessing energy forecasting inaccuracy by simultaneously considering temporal and absolute errors(Elsevier, 2017-04-17) Frías Paredes, Laura; Mallor Giménez, Fermín; Gastón Romeo, Martín; León, Teresa; Estadística e Investigación Operativa; Estatistika eta Ikerketa Operatiboa; Institute of Smart Cities - ISCRecent years have seen a growing trend in wind and solar energy generation globally and it is expected that an important percentage of total energy production comes from these energy sources. However, they present inherent variability that implies uctuations in energy generation that are dicult to forecast. Thus, forecasting errors have a considerable role in the impacts and costs of renewable energy integration, management, and commercialization. This study presents an important advance in the task of analyzing prediction models, in particular, in the timing component of prediction error, which improves previous pioneering results. A new method to match time series is dened in order to assess energy forecasting accuracy. This method relies on a new family of step patterns, an essential component of the algorithm to evaluate the temporal distortion index (TDI). This family minimizes the mean absolute error (MAE) of the transformation with respect to the reference series (the real energy series) and also allows detailed control of the temporal distortion entailed in the prediction series. The simultaneous consideration of temporal and absolute errors allows the use of Pareto frontiers as characteristic error curves. Real examples of wind energy forecasts are used to illustrate the results.Publication Open Access Implementation of artificial intelligence algorithms in climatic zoning according with energy demand in dwellings. A european case(2021) Llorente Yoldi, Javier; Gastón Romeo, Martín; Frías Paredes, Laura; Ur Rehman, Hassam; Estadística e Investigación Operativa; Institute of Smart Cities - ISC; Estatistika eta Ikerketa OperatiboaScience has shown, based on data and knowledge, that there is clear evidence that global warming is not a transient effect, and that it is caused mainly by human activity. The consequences of climate change can be noted and quantified nowadays, but the worst thing is that these impacts are expected to intensify in the coming decades. Obviously, global problems require global solutions, and even if there are certain difficulties to define a clear path, there is no doubt that the worldwide efforts should lead to keep the global temperatura increase to well below 1.5ºCPublication Open Access Introducing the Temporal Distortion Index to perform a bidimensional analysis of renewable energy forecast(Elsevier, 2015-11-21) Frías Paredes, Laura; Mallor Giménez, Fermín; León, Teresa; Gastón Romeo, Martín; Estadística e Investigación Operativa; Estatistika eta Ikerketa Operatiboa; Institute of Smart Cities - ISCWind has been the largest contributor to the growth of renewal energy during the early 21st century. However, the natural uncertainty that arises in assessing the wind resource implies the occurrence of wind power forecasting errors which perform a considerable role in the impacts and costs in the wind energy integration and its commercialization. The main goal of this paper is to provide a deeper insight in the analysis of timing errors which leads to the proposal of a new methodology for its control and measure. A new methodology, based on Dynamic TimeWarping, is proposed to be considered in the estimation of accuracy as attribute of forecast quality. A new dissimilarity measure, the Temporal Distortion Index, among time series is introduced to complement the traditional verication measures found in the literature. Furthermore we provide a bi-criteria perspective to the problem of comparing different forecasts. The methodology is illustrated with several examples including a real case.Publication Open Access Operational research applied to health services: ORAHS 2016(2016) Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa; Estatistika eta Ikerketa Operatiboa; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística e Investigación OperativaThe conference theme is «Finding better health-care decisions in new oceans of health data». New medical devices have open a new era of information in healthcare and set healthcare systems in a path of rapid changes in the delivering of services to patients. Decision makers and operational research analysts have big challenges ahead to make an intelligent use of this information to create new efficient and high quality healthcare environments. During the conference, we will discuss different ways to achieve this objective.