Open Access
Extracting expected stock risk premia from option prices and the information contained in non-parametric-out-of-sample stochastic discount factors
(Routledge, 2020) González Urteaga, Ana; Nieto, Belén; Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
This paper analyzes the factor structure and cross-sectional variability of a set of expected excess returns extracted from option prices and a non-parametric and out-of-sample stochastic discount factor. We argue that the existing potential segmentation between the equity and option markets makes it advisable to avoid using only option prices to extract expected equity risk premia. This set of expected risk premia significantly forecasts future realized returns, and the first two principal components explain 94.1% of the variability of expected returns. A multi-factor model with the market, quality, funding illiquidity, the default premium and the market-wide variance risk premium as factors significantly explains the cross-sectional variability of expected excess returns. The (asymptotically) different from zero adjusted cross-sectional R-squared statistic is 83.6%.
Open Access
A forecasting analysis of risk‐neutral equity and Treasury volatilities
(Wiley, 2019) González Urteaga, Ana; Nieto, Belén; Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
This paper employs equity (VIX) and Treasury (MOVE) risk‐neutral volatilities to assess their relative forecasting performance with respect to future real activity, stock and Treasury excess returns, and aggregate risk factors. The in‐sample evidence suggests that the square of VIX tends to dominate the square of MOVE. Out‐of‐sample predictive analysis, performed as a horse race between equity and Treasury risk‐neutral volatilities, shows that, contrary to earlier results, the square of VIX and MOVE tend to complement each other.
Open Access
Performance of default-risk measures: the sample matters
(Elsevier, 2020) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; González Urteaga, Ana; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Sánchez Alegría, Santiago; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua, PI017-PI039 CORRAL
This paper examines the predictive power of the main default-risk measures used by both academics and practitioners, including accounting measures, market-price-based measures and the credit rating. Given that some measures are unavailable for some firm types, pair wise comparisons are made between the various measures, using same-size samples in every case. The results show the superiority of market-based measures, although their accuracy depends on the prediction horizon and the type of default events considered. Furthermore, examination shows that the effect of within-sample firm characteristics varies across measures. The overall finding is of poorer goodness of fit for accurate default prediction in samples characterised by high book-to-market ratios and/or high asset intangibility, both of which suggest pricing difficulty. In the case of large-firm samples, goodness of fit is in general negatively related to size, possibly because of the 'too-big-to-fail' effect.
Open Access
The cross-sectional variation of volatility risk premia
(Elsevier, 2016) González Urteaga, Ana; Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyzes the determinants of the cross-sectional variation of the average volatility risk premia for a representative set of portfolios sorted by volatility risk premium beta. The market volatility risk premium and, especially, the default premium are shown to be key risk factors in the cross-sectional variation of average volatility risk premium payoffs. The cross-sectional variation of risk premia seems to reflect a very different behavior of the underlying components of our sample portfolios with respect to credit or financial stress that generates a significant dispersion of the volatility swap pricing of these securities.
Open Access
The nexus between sovereign CDS and stock market volatility: new evidence
(MDPI, 2021) Ballester Miquel, Laura; Escrivá, Ana Mónica; González Urteaga, Ana; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
This paper extends the studies published to date by performing an analysis of the causal relationships between sovereign CDS spreads and the estimated conditional volatility of stock indices. This estimation is performed using a vector autoregressive model (VAR) and dynamically applying the Granger causality test. The conditional volatility of the stock market has been obtained through various univariate GARCH models. This methodology allows us to study the information transmissions, both unidirectional and bidirectional, that occur between CDS spreads and stock volatility between 2004 and 2020. We conclude that CDS spread returns cause (in the Granger sense) conditional stock volatility, mainly in Europe and during the sovereign debt crisis. This transmission dynamic breaks down during the COVID-19 period, where there are high bidirectional relationships between the two markets.
Open Access
Spillover dynamics effects between risk-neutral equity and treasury volatilities
(Springer, 2022) González Urteaga, Ana; Nieto, Belén; Rubio, Gonzalo; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
Macro-finance asset pricing models provide a rationale for connectedness dynamics between equity and Treasury risk-neutral volatilities. In this paper, we study the total and directional connectedness, in the sense of spillover effects, between risk-neutral volatilities from the equity and Treasury markets. In addition, we analyze the economic and monetary drivers of connectedness dynamics. Most of the time, but especially during bad economic times, we find significant net spillovers from Treasury to equity risk-neutral volatility. The spillover channel between risk-neutral volatilities arises mainly through the government fixed income market.
Open Access
Analysis of the feasibility of investment projects in real assets with PBL: a very real experience
(Universitat Politècnica de València, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Bonilla Acosta, Harold; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Río Solano, María Cristina del; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; González Urteaga, Ana; Mansilla Fernández, José Manuel; Martínez García, Beatriz; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper studies the application of the PBL methodology in the Corporate Finance I course. The project to be carried out consists of the realization of a report on the feasibility of an investment project for a company that wants to take advantage of a subvention to finance the renovation of the bus fleet towards a more sustainable one. In addition to describing the implementation, this paper analyzes the impact that the introduction of the PBL methodology has in terms of class attendance and participation in the activity and also in the rest of the course. A clear decrease in absenteeism in class and in exams is observed. Moreover, the impact on grades is analyzed, with a significant increase in marks for all the degrees under study. Finally, we interpret the surveys that were passed to the students, showing that the students recognize the value of applying PBL in the subject.
Open Access
Guarantee requirements by European central counterparties and international volatility spillovers
(JAI Press, 2022) González Urteaga, Ana; Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
This analysis addressed the potential systemic effects of guarantee requirements by central counterparties. Using data from the Spanish BME and German Eurex central clearing counterparties and controlling for tail risk and monetary and real activity variables, we found a significant, positive, and robust relationship between the guarantees required and the spillover or total connectedness effects among nine financial assets in the Spanish, United States, and German capital markets. Bad economic times also had a significant incremental effect on the relationship between guarantees and connectedness. These findings are robust across central clearing corporations and futures contracts in the IBEX 35, DAX 30, and EURO STOXX 50. In addition, an event study indicated that global spillover effects tend to increase before central counterparty institutions raise their guarantees. The implication of the findings is that European clearing institutions react to rather than cause bad economic times.
Open Access
Financial advisory in classroom: educational innovation based on Project-Based Learning (PBL)
(Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, 2024-06-01) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Bonilla Acosta, Harold; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Río Solano, María Cristina del; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; González Urteaga, Ana; Mansilla Fernández, José Manuel; Martínez García, Beatriz; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper aims to describe an educational innovation in teaching-learning based on Project-Based Learning (PBL) carried out in the subjects of "Basic Finance" taught in the Double Bachelor's Degree in Management, Business Administration, and Law of the Public University of Navarre (UPNA). These are Financial Markets and Instruments, Corporate Finance I, and Corporate Finance II. Specifically, in each of the subjects, the project consisted of preparing an advisory report. Thus, the classroom becomes a financial consultancy covering its different areas of work. Furthermore, this study evaluates the educational innovation, analysing both quantitative and qualitative aspects across subjects and gender. In summary, there is a significant improvement in grades after the introduction of PBL. Students also support the implementation of PBL, with gender differences found. Our findings motivate the continued use of dynamic teaching methods and underline the importance of adapting approaches to improve educational outcomes.
Open Access
A systematic review of sovereign connectedness on emerging economies
(Elsevier, 2019) Ballester Miquel, Laura; Díaz Mendoza, Ana Carmen; González Urteaga, Ana; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
This article systematically reviews the academic literature on emerging market contagion in order to summarize what we have learnt about the transmission channels existing in these countries. Given the large body of academic research focused on this topic, we especially direct our attention to the strand of the literature that defines and empirically analyses this topic as the significant increase in the cross-market correlations between asset returns during crisis periods or when a shock occurs. The survey covers the findings on financial contagion in the stock, bond, exchange and credit default swap markets during a large period that covers several crises that have characterized the related literature, such as the currency crises of the 1990s, the global financial crisis and the Eurozone debt crisis. Finally, new topics are identified, serving as an outline for future research.