Person:
González Urteaga, Ana

person.page.identifierURI

https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/49191

Last Name

González Urteaga

First Name

Ana

person.page.departamento

Gestión de Empresas

person.page.instituteName

INARBE. Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics

ORCID

0000-0002-8256-8518

person.page.upna

810168

Full item page

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 31

Open Access
Do sovereign ratings cause instability in cross-border emerging CDS markets?
(Elsevier, 2021) Ballester Miquel, Laura; González Urteaga, Ana; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
We analyse the cross-border transmission effect of credit ratings on sovereign CDSs covering a broad sample of emerging countries during the period 2004 to 2015. This study differentiates between the spillover and competition effects between and within geographical areas of emerging countries. We find substantial evidence of cross-border effects with asymmetric responses to upgrades and downgrades. The market reaction differs across regions, reflecting how the international and local impact of rating events are due to different types of effects. At the international portfolio level, the competitive effect is dominant over the spillover effect. Negative events in Asia benefit Africa (which is also negatively affected by upgrades in Asia) and Middle East, the latter transmitting in turn to Asia with the same competitive effect. However, some spillover effects are also found both at the portfolio and intra-portfolio levels. The ones associated with downgrades are especially sensitive. In these cases, we identify the particular emerging economies that contribute to an increase in financial instability and to regional spillover effects.
Open Access
Volatility transmission among European Bank CDS
(Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, 2014) Alemany, Aida; Ballester Miquel, Laura; González Urteaga, Ana; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
A partir de la crisis subprime en 2007 y hasta la reciente crisis de deuda de la zona euro el sector bancario europeo ha experimentado una terrible situación de inestabilidad financiera traducida en un aumento de los niveles de los CDS (utilizados como aproximación del riesgo de crédito). Este trabajo investiga si los canales de transmisión de volatilidad en los mercados bancarios europeos han cambiado después de tres importantes eventos de crisis durante el período comprendido entre enero de 2006 y marzo de 2013. La crisis financiera global se ha caracterizado por un efecto spillover unidireccional de los shocks en volatilidad del riesgo de crédito desde el interior al exterior de la Eurozona. Por el contrario, la crisis de deuda de la Eurozona se revela como una crisis de naturaleza local con el euro como elemento clave, lo que deja de manifiesto la existencia de una fragmentación del mercado entre los países periféricos más castigados por la crisis y los países del centro de la Eurozona con menores dificultades, mientras que por otro lado, mantener la moneda local ha actuado como cortafuegos. Estos resultados arrojan luz sobre el impacto del riesgo de crédito bancario en Europa para diferentes estados de crisis financieras.
Open Access
Estimating the elasticity of intertemporal substitution with leverage
(Elsevier, 2017) González Urteaga, Ana; Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
Following the recent literature on intermediary asset pricing models, this paper argues that the marginal utility of wealth of financial intermediaries can be used to generate enough volatility and counter-cyclicality on the recursive preference-based stochastic discount factor. Hence, a dynamic econometric strategy of an asset pricing model with the market portfolio return and the leverage growth of financial intermediaries allows for a sensible economic estimate of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution. On the contrary, the same framework with alternative measures of consumption produces extremely poor economic results.
Open Access
Green bond issuance and credit risk: international evidence
(Elsevier, 2024) Ballester Miquel, Laura; González Urteaga, Ana; Shen, L.; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa, PJUPNA2023-11379
We present the first empirical study of the impact of corporate green bond issuance announcements on issuer credit risk, as measured by their CDS spreads. We use a broad international sample of 1,048 green bonds issued between 2013 and 2022 by 200 entities from 26 countries. Our analysis reveals a significant, though not uniform, reaction in the CDSs. The sector of activity emerges as a critical determinant, particularly with respect to environmental exposure. While sectors highly exposed to environmental risk exhibit a reduction in issuer credit risk, all others, especially financial entities, react in the opposite direction. Our study highlights that the impact on credit risk is influenced by several other factors, including the issuer's overall ESG score, its E score, and various country-level metrics such as development level, environmental performance and political rights. We also identify other factors that affect credit risk, such as green bond ratings and operating cash flow.
Open Access
A forecasting analysis of risk‐neutral equity and Treasury volatilities
(Wiley, 2019) González Urteaga, Ana; Nieto, Belén; Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
This paper employs equity (VIX) and Treasury (MOVE) risk‐neutral volatilities to assess their relative forecasting performance with respect to future real activity, stock and Treasury excess returns, and aggregate risk factors. The in‐sample evidence suggests that the square of VIX tends to dominate the square of MOVE. Out‐of‐sample predictive analysis, performed as a horse race between equity and Treasury risk‐neutral volatilities, shows that, contrary to earlier results, the square of VIX and MOVE tend to complement each other.
Open Access
Coasimetría idiosincrática y riesgo de insolvencia en el mercado de valores español
(AECA, 2014) González Urteaga, Ana; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
En el presente trabajo se analiza la relación entre el riesgo asimétrico, aproximado por las medidas de coasimetría y coasimetría idiosincrática, y el riesgo de insolvencia en el mercado de valores español. Se ha encontrado que aquellos títulos con mayor riesgo asimétrico proporcionan mayores rentabilidades durante el periodo considerado, en especial aquellos con valores positivos de la medida de coasimetría idiosincrática. Sin embargo, ni los factores de riesgo construidos en base a esta medida, ni el factor de riesgo de coasimetría proporcionan capacidad explicativa a las rentabilidades diferenciales de las carteras convencionales formadas por riesgo de insolvencia, siendo principalmente el factor tamaño (SMB) el que aporta explicación a dichas rentabilidades, tanto en periodos expansivos como durante el periodo de crisis financiera. Los factores de riesgo asimétrico únicamente presentan capacidad explicativa en el caso de carteras con riesgo de insolvencia más extremo y durante el periodo de crisis financiera internacional.
Open Access
Transmisión del riesgo de crédito en el sector bancario Europeo: crisis subprime y deuda soberana
(Taylor & Francis, 2014) Ballester Miquel, Laura; González Urteaga, Ana; Tudela Ferrándiz, David; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar en profundidad la transmisión del riesgo de crédito, aproximado por los CDS spreads, en el sector bancario europeo durante el periodo 2006-2012, intentando dar respuesta a diversas cuestiones: (i) ¿existe evidencia de transmisión del riesgo de crédito entre las entidades financieras europeas de la Eurozona y las que no pertenecen a dicha zona?, (ii) ¿es esta transmisión bidireccional o unidireccional?, (iii) concretamente, ¿qué países han liderado dicha transmisión?, y (iv) ¿cómo se ha visto afectada dicha transmisión con las recientes crisis financieras? Los resultados indican un cambio significativo en la transmisión del riesgo de crédito con el estallido de la crisis subprime, con un efecto notable proveniente de los bancos de la Eurozona hacia los que no pertenecen a dicha zona.
Open Access
Extracting expected stock risk premia from option prices and the information contained in non-parametric-out-of-sample stochastic discount factors
(Routledge, 2020) González Urteaga, Ana; Nieto, Belén; Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
This paper analyzes the factor structure and cross-sectional variability of a set of expected excess returns extracted from option prices and a non-parametric and out-of-sample stochastic discount factor. We argue that the existing potential segmentation between the equity and option markets makes it advisable to avoid using only option prices to extract expected equity risk premia. This set of expected risk premia significantly forecasts future realized returns, and the first two principal components explain 94.1% of the variability of expected returns. A multi-factor model with the market, quality, funding illiquidity, the default premium and the market-wide variance risk premium as factors significantly explains the cross-sectional variability of expected excess returns. The (asymptotically) different from zero adjusted cross-sectional R-squared statistic is 83.6%.
Open Access
Spillover dynamics effects between risk-neutral equity and treasury volatilities
(Springer, 2022) González Urteaga, Ana; Nieto, Belén; Rubio, Gonzalo; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
Macro-finance asset pricing models provide a rationale for connectedness dynamics between equity and Treasury risk-neutral volatilities. In this paper, we study the total and directional connectedness, in the sense of spillover effects, between risk-neutral volatilities from the equity and Treasury markets. In addition, we analyze the economic and monetary drivers of connectedness dynamics. Most of the time, but especially during bad economic times, we find significant net spillovers from Treasury to equity risk-neutral volatility. The spillover channel between risk-neutral volatilities arises mainly through the government fixed income market.
Open Access
When is environmental performance most valued?: international evidence from the CDS market
(Elsevier, 2025-03-17) Ballester Miquel, Laura; González Urteaga, Ana; Martínez García, Beatriz; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
Using a sample of 516 firms with CDS data from 37 countries for the period 2010-2022, this study finds that companies with higher environmental performance, particularly in emissions reduction and product innovation, exhibit a reduction in credit risk, supporting the risk mitigation perspective. Our results also highlight the importance of considering both internal and external factors when assessing the financial impact of sustainability initiatives. Firms with initially lower environmental performance, less exposure to the environmental sector, and higher credit ratings experience a more significant reduction in credit risk as they improve their environmental performance. In addition, the CDS market places a higher value on environmental efforts for firms located in countries with lower environmental scores, credit ratings and GDP growth. Conversely, out findings support the overinvestment view for firms in sectors with high environmental risk exposure or in countries with poor climate change performance. Overall, the effect of a firm's environmental performance on credit risk is heterogeneous rather than uniform.