Person: Muñoz Carpena, Rafael
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Muñoz Carpena
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Rafael
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Ingeniería
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0000-0003-2838-1514
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811780
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Publication Open Access Hydrological records can be used to reconstruct the resilience of watersheds to climatic extremes(Nature Research, 2024) Huffaker, Ray; Campo-Bescós, Miguel; Luquin Oroz, Eduardo Adrián; Casalí Sarasíbar, Javier; Muñoz Carpena, Rafael; Institute on Innovation and Sustainable Development in Food Chain - ISFOODHydrologic resilience modeling is used in public watershed management to assess watershed ability to supply life-supporting ecoservices under extreme climatic and environmental conditions. Literature surveys criticize resilience models for failing to capture watershed dynamics and undergo adequate testing. Both shortcomings compromise their ability to provide management options reliably protecting water security under real-world conditions. We formulate an empirical protocol to establish real-world correspondence. The protocol applies empirical nonlinear dynamics to reconstruct hydrologic dynamics from watershed records, and analyze the response of reconstructed dynamics to extreme regional climatic conditions. We devise an AI-based early-warning system to forecast (out-of-sample) reconstructed hydrologic resilience dynamics. Application to the La Tejería (Spain) experimental watershed finds it to be a low dimensional nonlinear deterministic dynamic system responding to internal stressors by irregularly oscillating along a watershed attractor. Reconstructed and forecasted hydrologic resilience behavior faithfully captures monthly wet-cold/dry-warm weather patterns characterizing the Mediterranean region.Publication Open Access Dynamic prediction of effective runoff sediment particle size for improved assessment of erosion mitigation efficiency with vegetative filter strips(Elsevier, 2023) Reichenberger, Stefan; Sur, Robin; Sittig, Stephan; Multsch, Sebastián; Carmona Cabrero, Álvaro; López Rodríguez, José Javier; Muñoz Carpena, Rafael; Ingeniería; Ingeniaritza; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertstitate PublikoaThe most widely implemented mitigation measure to reduce transfer of surface runoff pesticides and other pollutants to surface water bodies are vegetative filter strips (VFS). The most commonly used dynamic model for quantifying the reduction by VFS of surface runoff, eroded sediment, pesticides and other pollutants is VFSMOD, which simulates reduction of total inflow (ΔQ) and of incoming eroded sediment load (ΔE) mechanistically during the rainfall-runoff event. These variables are subsequently used to calculate the reduction of pesticide load by the VFS (ΔP). Since errors in ΔQ and ΔE propagate into ΔP, for strongly-sorbing compounds an accurate prediction of ΔE is crucial for a reliable prediction of ΔP. The most important incoming sediment characteristic for ΔE is the median particle diameter (d50). Current d50 estimation methods are simplistic, yielding fixed d50 based on soil properties and ignoring specific event characteristics and dynamics. We derive an improved dynamic d50 parameterization equation for use in regulatory VFS scenarios based on an extensive dataset of 93 d50 values and 17 candidate explanatory variables compiled from heterogeneous data sources and methods. The dataset was analysed first using machine learning techniques (Random Forest, Gradient Boosting) and Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) as a dimension reduction technique and to identify potential interactions between explanatory variables. Using the knowledge gained, a parsimonious multiple regression equation with 6 predictors was developed and thoroughly tested. Since three of the predictors are eventspecific (eroded sediment yield, rainfall intensity and peak runoff rate), predicted d50 vary dynamically across event magnitudes and intensities. Incorporation of the improved d50 parameterization equation in higher-tier pesticide assessment tools with VFSMOD provides more realistic quantitative mitigation in regulatory US-EPA and EU FOCUS pesticide risk assessment frameworks. The equation is also readily applicable to other erosion management problems.Publication Open Access Model prediction capacity of ephemeral gully evolution in conservation tillage systems(Wiley, 2021) Luquin Oroz, Eduardo Adrián; Campo-Bescós, Miguel; Muñoz Carpena, Rafael; Bingner, R.L.; Cruse, Richard M.; Momm, Henrique G.; Wells, R.; Casalí Sarasíbar, Javier; Ingeniaritza; Institute on Innovation and Sustainable Development in Food Chain - ISFOOD; Ingeniería; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate PublikoaEphemeral gully (EG) erosion has an important impact on agricultural soil losses and increases field surface hydrology connectivity and transport of pollutants to nearby water bodies. Watershed models including an EG component are scarce and not yet properly evaluated. The objective of this study is to evaluate the capacity of one such tool, AnnAGNPS, to simulate the evolution of two EG formed in a conservation tillage system. The dataset for model testing included runoff measurements and EG morphological characteristics during 3 years. Model evaluation focused on EG evolution of volume, width, and length model outputs, and included calibration and testing phases and a global sensitivity analysis (GSA). While the model did not fully reproduce width and length, the model efficiency to simulate EG volume was satisfactory for both calibration and testing phases, supporting the watershed management objectives of the model. GSA revealed that the most sensitive factors were EG depth, critical shear stress, headcut detachment exponent coefficient b, and headcut detachment leading coefficient a. For EG outputs the model was additive, showing low sensitivity to interactions between the inputs. Prediction of EG spatial evolution on conservation tillage systems requires improved development of gullyerosion components, since many of the processes were developed originally for traditional tillage practices or larger channel systems. Our results identify the need for future research when EG form within conservation tillage systems, in particular to study gully headcut, soil erodibility, and width functions specific to these practices.Publication Open Access Experimental evidence that rill-bed morphology is governed by emergent nonlinear spatial dynamics(Springer Nature, 2022) Morgan, Savannah; Huffaker, Ray; Giménez Díaz, Rafael; Campo-Bescós, Miguel; Muñoz Carpena, Rafael; Govers, G.; Institute on Innovation and Sustainable Development in Food Chain - ISFOODPast experimental work found that rill erosion occurs mainly during rill formation in response to feedback between rill-flow hydraulics and rill-bed roughness, and that this feedback mechanism shapes rill beds into a succession of step-pool units that self-regulates sediment transport capacity of established rills. The search for clear regularities in the spatial distribution of step-pool units has been stymied by experimental rill-bed profiles exhibiting irregular fluctuating patterns of qualitative behavior. We hypothesized that the succession of step-pool units is governed by nonlinear-deterministic dynamics, which would explain observed irregular fluctuations. We tested this hypothesis with nonlinear time series analysis to reverse-engineer (reconstruct) state-space dynamics from fifteen experimental rill-bed profiles analyzed in previous work. Our results support this hypothesis for rill-bed profiles generated both in a controlled lab (flume) setting and in an in-situ hillside setting. The results provide experimental evidence that rill morphology is shaped endogenously by internal nonlinear hydrologic and soil processes rather than stochastically forced; and set a benchmark guiding specification and testing of new theoretical framings of rill-bed roughness in soil-erosion modeling. Finally, we applied echo state neural network machine learning to simulate reconstructed rill-bed dynamics so that morphological development could be forecasted out-of-sample.