Person:
Bonilla Acosta, Harold

Profile Picture

Email Address

Birth Date

Research Projects

Organizational Units

Job Title

Last Name

Bonilla Acosta

First Name

Harold

person.page.departamento

Gestión de Empresas

ORCID

0009-0006-4361-2519

person.page.upna

811995

Name

Filters

20232
Reset filters

Settings

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Duty calls: prediction of failure in reorganization processes
    (Emerald, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Bonilla Acosta, Harold; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
    Purpose – Using data from business reorganization processes under Act 1116 of 2006 in Colombia during the period 2008 to 2018, a model for predicting the success of these processes is proposed. The paper aims to validate the model in two different periods. The first one, in 2019, characterized by stability, and the second one, in 2020, characterized by the uncertainty generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach – A set of five financial variables comprising indebtedness, profitability and solvency proxies, firm age, macroeconomic conditions, and industry and regional dummies are used as independent variables in a logit model to predict the failure of reorganization processes. In addition, an out-ofsample analysis is carried out for the 2019 and 2020 periods. Findings – The results show a high predictive power of the estimated model. Even the results of the out-ofsample analysis are satisfactory during the unstable pandemic period. However, industry and regional effects add no predictive power for 2020, probably due to subsidies for economic activity and the relaxation of insolvency legislation in Colombia during that year. Originality/value – In a context of global reform in insolvency laws, the consistent predictive ability shown by the model, even during periods of uncertainty, can guide regulatory changes to ensure the survival of companies entering into reorganization processes, and reduce the observed high failure rate.
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Prediction of failure in reorganization agreements under Colombia's Corporate Insolvency Act
    (Emerald, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Bonilla Acosta, Harold; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
    Purpose – The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the impact of the implementation of Colombian Corporate Insolvency Act 1116 of 2006 in the period 2008–2018 and to assess the relevance of a broad set of financial predictors, as well as variables related to the economic context or the characteristics of the process itself, in explaining the failure of reorganization processes. Design/methodology/approach – Both logit and probit models are estimated, starting from a large number of variables proposed in the literature which are then narrowed down to a final selection based on their individual significance and machine learning. Findings – The results show the prevalence of a limited number of financial variables related to equity, indebtedness, profits and liquidity as predictors of the failure of reorganization processes. The use of financial information from the year prior to the completion of the reorganization improves predictive accuracy and reliability. The debt-to-equity indicator provides no significant explanatory power, while voluntary entry into a reorganization process favors its success. Originality/value – While financial and accounting information is used across the literature to predict insolvency events, it is used here to predict success or failure in reorganization processes under the conditions imposed by a specific legislative act in a Latin American context.