Person: Manotas Hidalgo, Beatriz
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Manotas Hidalgo
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Beatriz
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Economía
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0000-0002-1341-5905
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3530
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Publication Open Access Essays on globalization and conflict: the impact of income and environmental shocks in Africa(2021) Manotas Hidalgo, Beatriz; Galdón Sánchez, José Enrique; Ezcurra Orayen, Roberto; Economía; Ekonomia; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako GobernuaEl objetivo de esta tesis es abordar las causas y las consecuencias de los conflictos en un mundo globalizado. Para ello se considera la importancia de los patrones espaciales y el uso de datos geolocalizados, a la hora de abordar los problemas de causalidad en modelos econométricos con datos en panel y con datos de corte transversal repetidos. En el segundo capítulo de esta tesis, analizamos el vínculo entre la globalización y la incidencia de los conflictos civiles para un conjunto de datos de panel de 159 países durante el período 1972-2009. Para ello, distinguimos varias dimensiones de la globalización identificadas en la literatura de economía política, como son la globalización económica, social y política. Abordamos la endogeneidad potencial de las variables de globalización con la introducción de efectos fijos por país en el análisis. Además, utilizamos un enfoque de variables instrumentales para estimar el efecto causal del grado de integración sobre el conflicto. En el tercer capítulo, utilizamos información geo localizada para estudiar cómo los factores étnicos se interrelacionan con las variaciones de ingresos relacionadas con los alimentos, en los conflictos africanos, con el fin de explicar los procesos subyacentes del mismo. Para ello, proponemos el uso de una base de datos de panel, de una cuadrícula completa de países africanos divididos en unidades sub nacionales de 0,5 por 0,5 grados de latitud y longitud (10.638 celdas), que cubre el período 1998-2013. Contribuimos a la literatura anterior analizando varias teorías sobre los efectos de los shocks de ingresos en los conflictos, utilizando datos geo localizados que consideran la interacción entre estas variaciones de ingresos y la diversidad étnica. Finalmente, en el cuarto capítulo, examino el daño ambiental que podría derivarse de los conflictos, como son los derrames de petróleo en Nigeria, y su impacto en la producción agrícola. Utilizo un marco conceptual sobre la producción y consumo en los hogares, para comprender cómo la contaminación por derrames de petróleo, puede generar ajustes en el comportamiento óptimo de los hogares. A continuación, estimo una función de producción agrícola utilizando un modelo de corte transversal repetido, con microdatos georreferenciados para un conjunto de hogares agrícolas, y cuatro paneles de encuestas entre los años 2009 y 2018, ambos incluidos, de la base de datos Nigeria General Household Survey (GHS-Panel). Para calcular una variable proxy de la contaminación por derrames de petróleo, creo una función que utiliza datos geoespaciales con información sobre alrededor de 12.000 derrames de petróleo del Nigerian Oil Spill Monitor.Publication Open Access Spatial inequality, civil conflict and cells: a dynamic spatial probit approach(2021) Ríos, Vicente; Manotas Hidalgo, Beatriz; Gianmoena, Lisa; Economía; EkonomiaThis study examines the link between spatial income inequality and civil conflict in Africa. To that end we extend traditional empirical models of conflict to account for both endogenous and exogenous spatial interaction effects in the process of conflict by means of modern spatial econometric techniques. Using a geographically disaggregated annual high-resolution cell data for a sample of African countries during the period 1998 to 2013, we quantify the effect of spatial inequality on the probability of conflict incidence. Estimates show the existence of a positive and statistically significant relationship between spatial income inequality and conflict in African regions. This is partly due to the role played by spatial spillovers induced by spatial inequality in neighboring regions. The observed link is robust to the inclusion in the analysis of different explanatory variables that may affect both conflict and spatial inequality such as the level of economic development, the endowment of natural resources, infrastructures, geographical conditions, population density, fractionalization, polarization, social exclusion, or the share of urban population. The observed positive effect does not depend on the the level of data disaggregation, the type of conflict, the spatial inequality metric used in the analysis and the econometric specification employed to capture the nature of spatial spillovers.Publication Open Access Addressing oil spills and agricultural productivity. Evidence of pollution in Nigeria(2021) Manotas Hidalgo, Beatriz; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; EconomíaThis paper examines how the pollution generated by oil operations in Nigeria can affect agricultural total factor productivity. I analyze oil spills, which are the main ecological disaster in Nigeria and lead to major environmental, economic, and social problems. Following a consumer-producer household framework, and applying a difference-and-difference approach, I estimate an agricultural production function. I find that farmers located less than 10 kilometers from oil spills suffer a relative reduction in agricultural output of around 2.73%. I also examine alternative mechanisms and find that oil-spill pollution can explain my results. I detect less owner-occupied land and a drop in labor income in urban areas close to oil spills, which could also be explained by a decrease in the labor productivity component. This study highlights an externality through which the oil industry affects living conditions in rural areas and stresses the importance of clean-up in areas close to oil spills.Publication Open Access Does globalization promote civil war? An empirical research(2015) Ezcurra Orayen, Roberto; Manotas Hidalgo, Beatriz; Economía; EkonomiaThis paper investigates the empirical relationship between globalization and in-trastate conflict in a sample of 160 countries over the period 1970-2009. To that end, we use a measure of globalization that distinguishes the social and political dimensions of integration from the economic dimension, thus allowing us to adopt a broader perspective than in most of existing studies and examine the effect of these three distinct aspects of globalization on civil violence. The results of the paper show that the degree of integration with the rest of the world contributes significantly to increasing the incidence of civil wars, in direct contrast to arguments which defend that globalization has the beneficial effect of deterring internal armed conficts. In particular, the dimension of globalization that most robustly relates with internal confict is economic integration. Our findings are not affected by the inclusion of additional explanatory variables in the analysis, or by changes in the definition of civil war. Likewise, the relationship observed between the degree of integration and civil violence does not seem to be driven by countries located in the most confictive regions in the world.Publication Open Access The role of ethnic characteristics in the effect of income shocks on African conflict(Elsevier, 2021) Manotas Hidalgo, Beatriz; Pérez Sebastián, Fidel; Campo-Bescós, Miguel; Ekonomia; Ingeniaritza; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Institute on Innovation and Sustainable Development in Food Chain - ISFOOD; Economía; IngenieríaThis paper disentangles the ethnic drivers of the effect of food-related income shocks on African conflict employing geo-localized information. We consider diversity and political ethnic variables and several conflict definitions. We find that differentiating between organized armed-force and non-organized conflict can be more informative than between factor and output conflict. We show evidence that conflict is driven by the opportunity cost and state capacity mechanisms. Furthermore, ethnic cleavages have a large role in the transmission process of income shocks on organized armed-force conflict; whereas their role in non-organized violence is more limited. The sensitivity to ethnic heterogeneity for producer-price and droughts shocks is much larger than for consumer-price changes.Publication Open Access Is there a link between globalisation and civil conflict?(Wiley, 2017) Ezcurra Orayen, Roberto; Manotas Hidalgo, Beatriz; Economía; EkonomiaThis paper investigates the empirical relationship between globalisation and civil conflict in a sample of 159 countries over the period 1972–2009. To that end, we use a measure of globalisation that distinguishes the social and political dimensions of integration from the economic dimension, thus allowing us to adopt a broader perspective than in most of existing studies. The results show that the inclusion of country fixed effects removes the statistical association between the degree of integration with the rest of the world and the incidence of internal conflict. We present instrumental variables estimates that also show no causal effect of globalisation on civil conflict. These findings do not depend either on the specific dimension of globalisation considered or the measure of conflict used in the analysis. Likewise, the absence of a relationship between globalisation and civil conflict is not driven by countries located in the most conflictive regions in the world.