Open Access
Las cotizaciones sociales en España y la Unión Europea: simulando algunas posibles reformas
(FUNCAS, 2019) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de una reducción de las cotizaciones sociales a cargo de los empresarios, acompañada o no de un incremento en los tipos de los impuestos indirectos, utilizando la metodología del equilibrio general aplicado en el marco de un modelo multipaís. Los resultados muestran que un descenso de un 10 por 100 en las cotizaciones sociales se traduciría en unos incrementos moderados en los niveles del PIB y empleo de la economía española, con una reducción de la tasa de desempleo de aproximadamente medio punto. Los efectos serían cuantitativamente menores si la reducción de las cotizaciones sociales viene acompañada de un incremento en la imposición indirecta. Cuando la reducción de cotizaciones sociales se lleva a cabo en la UE-14, sus efectos sobre la economía española solamente son significativos, aunque de pequeña magnitud, en el caso de plena movilidad internacional de factores productivos.
Open Access
Asymmetry in the EMS: new evidence based on non-linear forecasts
(2000) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Sosvilla Rivero, Simón; Fernández Rodríguez, Fernando; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we provide new evidence on the hypothesis of German leadership and asymmetric performance in the EMS, in the framework of causality tests, using daily data. Given the evidence about non-linearity in financial series, we propose applying non-linear forecasting methods based on the literature on complex dynamic systems. Our analysis covers nine countries, and the sample period runs until 30 April 1998, so including the more recent events in the EMS history. A comparison of our results with those obtained from standard linear econometric techniques leads us to conclude that inference on causality based on our non-linear predictors would be preferable to that based on the standard linear approach.
Open Access
A further generalization of the Solow growth model: the role of the public sector
(1999) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Economía; Ekonomia
We develop in this paper an augmented version of the Solow (1956) growth model, including the role of government. The model leads to a non-monotonic relationship between the rate of growth of per capita output and government size, generalizing previous results by Barro (1990) to the case in which returns to scale to private factors are not constant.
Open Access
¿Existe un efecto Fisher en el largo plazo? Evidencia para la economía española, 1962-1996
(1998) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Esteve, Vicente; Economía; Ekonomia
En este trabajo se contrasta empíricamente el cumplimiento del efecto Fisher a largo plazo para el caso español, utilizando datos trimestrales para el periodo 1962-1996. Para ello se utilizan nuevas técnicas de raíces unitarias y cointegración, donde se tienen en cuenta explícitamente la presencia de posibles cambios estructurales en la tendencia de las series. Los resultados son favorables a la existencia de un efecto Fisher parcial en el largo plazo, con una transición al tipo de interés nominal de aproximadamente un tercio por cada punto de incremento en la tasa de inflacción.
Open Access
On the insurance function of fiscal policy in a monetary union
(2000) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Díaz Roldán, Carmen; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we first review the available literature on the degree of insurance against shocks, provided by the central budget in the federal systems already existing. Next, we discuss the main points raised on the debate about the implementation of an automatic mechanism designed to cope with country-specific shocks in a monetary union, and present a specific proposal of such a mechanism.
Open Access
Provision of public health services and sustainable development: evidence for 12 emerging countries
(MDPI, 2020) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
In this paper, we quantify the effects of an increase in the public provision of health services in a set of 12 emerging economies (i.e., Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Russia, South Africa and Tunisia), representing 45% of world population in 2018. We use a computable general equilibrium model and simulate an increase in the real government expenditure devoted to public health services up to a 20% of total government expenditure, which is also assumed to raise labour productivity. This increase leads to expansionary effects in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for all the economies under analysis and an increase in the ratio of government deficit to GDP, ranging between 3.66 points for Russia and 0.24 points for Colombia. If, in addition, direct tax rates on labour are increased to offset this result, the effects on GDP and employment become contractionary in most cases; whereas if indirect tax rates are those to be increased, small expansionary effects are again the norm with the only exception of Russia.
Open Access
¿Es sostenible el sistema de Seguridad Social en España? Situación actual y perspectivas
(1999) Montero Muñoz, María; Da Rocha Álvarez, José M.; Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Economía; Ekonomia
En este trabajo se analiza la sostenibilidad del sistema de la Seguridad Social en España. Para ello se examinan los principales componentes de los ingresos y gastos del sistema que han caracterizado su evolución en los últimos años, así como aquellos factores que más han contribuido a la actual configuración de la estructura de la población de España, como son la evolución de la esperanza de vida y de la tasa de la natalidad. La evidencia que ofrecen los datos, unida a los resultados de los trabajos disponibles sobre el tema, llevan a poner en cuestión la viabilidad futura del sistema si se mantienen las circustancias actuales.
Open Access
A general framework for the macroeconomic analysis of monetary unions
(2001) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Díaz Roldán, Carmen; Economía; Ekonomia
The objective of this paper is to develop a general framework for the macroeconomic modelling of monetary unions, which could be useful for policy analysis, as well as for teaching purposes. Our starting point will be the standard two-country Mundell-Fleming model with perfect capital mobility, extended to incorporate the supply side, and modified so that the money market is common for two countries forming a monetary union. The model is presented in two versions: for a small and a big monetary union, respectively. After solving each model, we will derive multipliers for monetary, real (i. e., demand-side), supply, and external shocks, paying a special attention to the distinction between symmetric and asymmetric shocks. A graphical analysis is also provided.
Open Access
Simulating the effects of the European singles market: a CGE analysis for Spain
(2005) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we provide an empirical assessment of two of the measures proposed in the context of the European Single Market, namely, easing the provision of domestic and foreign services, and modifying the rules of public procurement, for the case of Spain. We build and simulate a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which incorporates three particular features: (i) increasing returns to scale and a noncompetitive price rule; (ii) sectoral export demand functions; and (iii) equilibrium unemployment according to a matching function approach.
Open Access
There was monetary autonomy in Europe on the eve of EMU? The German dominance hypothesis reexamined
(1999) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Montávez Garcés, María Dolores; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we re-examine the German dominance hypothesis, as a way to assess whether the loss of monetary autonomy in Europe associated with EMU had been significant. We use Granger-causality tests between the interest rates of Germany and all the countries participating at any time in the European Monetary System, with the sample period running until December 1998. Our results would support a weak version of the hypothesis, with Germany playing a certain “leadership” or special role in the EMS, although she would not had been strictly the “dominant” player.