Open Access
The effect of changing temperature and agar concentration at proliferation stage in the final success of Aleppo pine somatic embryogenesis
(Instituto Nacional de Investigacion y Tecnologia Agraria y Alimentaria (INIA), 2017) Pereira, Catia; Montalbán, Itziar A.; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Correia, Sandra; Canhoto, Jorge M.; Moncaleán, Paloma; Estadística e Investigación Operativa; Estatistika eta Ikerketa Operatiboa
Aim of the study: The effect of physical and chemical conditions at proliferation stage was evaluated in order to elucidate if this stage is the determinant phase to induce a marked effect in Pinus halepensis somatic embryogenesis. Area of study: The study was conducted in research laboratories of Neiker (Arkaute, Spain). Material and methods: Pinus halepensis embryonal masses from ten embryogenic cell lines subjected to nine treatments (tissues cultured at three temperatures on media supplemented with three agar concentrations) at proliferation stage. Main results: Significant differences were observed among different proliferation conditions months later at the end of maturation, germination and acclimatization stages. Research highlights: Aleppo pine embryonal masses are cultured under standard conditions on a culture medium supplemented with 4.5 g/L Gelrite® at 23ºC. However, better results in terms of plantlet production can be obtained proliferating the embryonal masses at 18ºC in a culture media with significantly lower water availability.
Open Access
Comments on: Modular regression - a Lego system for building structured additive distributional regression models with tensor product interactions
(Springer, 2019) Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas
This paper comments the article 'Modular regression - a Lego system for building structured additive distributional regression models with tensor product interactions', where the authors address the important topic of building very general models with interaction terms facing the relevant issue of identifiability.
Open Access
Space-time interactions in bayesian disease mapping with recent tools: making things easier for practitioners
(Edward Arnold, 2022) Urdangarin Iztueta, Arantxa; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas
Spatio-temporal disease mapping studies the distribution of mortality or incidence risks in space and its evolution in time, and it usually relies on fitting hierarchical Poisson mixed models. These models are complex for practitioners as they generally require adding constraints to correctly identify and interpret the different model terms. However, including constraints may not be straightforward in some recent software packages. This paper focuses on NIMBLE, a library of algorithms that contains among others a configurable system for Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms. In particular, we show how to fit different spatio-temporal disease mapping models with NIMBLE making emphasis on how to include sum-to-zero constraints to solve identifiability issues when including spatio-temporal interactions. Breast cancer mortality data in Spain during the period 1990-2010 is used for illustration purposes. A simulation study is also conducted to compare NIMBLE with R-INLA in terms of parameter estimates and relative risk estimation. The results are very similar but differences are observed in terms of computing time.
Open Access
Effect of thermal stress on tissue ultrastructure and metabolite profiles during initiation of Radiata pine somatic embryogenesis
(Frontiers Media, 2019) Castander Olarieta, Ander; Montalbán, Itziar A.; Oliveira, Eliana de Medeiros; Dell'Aversana, Emilia; D'Amelia, Luisa; Carillo, Petronia; Steiner, Neusa; Fraga, Hugo Pacheco de Freitas; Guerra, Miguel Pedro; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika
Climate change will inevitably lead to environmental variations, thus plant drought tolerance will be a determinant factor in the success of plantations and natural forestry recovery. Some metabolites, such as soluble carbohydrates and amino acids, have been described as being the key to both embryogenesis efficiency and abiotic stress response, contributing to phenotypic plasticity and the adaptive capacity of plants. For this reason, our main objectives were to evaluate if the temperature during embryonal mass initiation in radiata pine was critical to the success of somatic embryogenesis, to alter the morphological and ultrastructural organization of embryonal masses at cellular level and to modify the carbohydrate, protein, or amino acid contents. The first SE initiation experiments were carried out at moderate and high temperatures for periods of different durations prior to transfer to the control temperature of 23 degrees C. Cultures initiated at moderate temperatures (30 degrees C, 4 weeks and 40 degrees C, 4 days) showed significantly lower initiation and proliferation rates than those at the control temperature or pulse treatment at high temperatures (50 degrees C, 5 min). No significant differences were observed either for the percentage of embryogenic cell lines that produced somatic embryos, or for the number of somatic embryos per gram of embryonal mass. Based on the results from the first experiments, initiation was carried out at 40 degrees C 4 h; 50 degrees C, 30 min; and a pulse treatment of 60 degrees C, 5 min. No significant differences were found for the initiation or number of established lines or for the maturation of somatic embryos. However, large morphological differences were observed in the mature somatic embryos. At the same time, changes observed at cellular level suggested that strong heat shock treatments may trigger the programmed cell death of embryogenic cells, leading to an early loss of embryogenic potential, and the formation of supernumerary suspensor cells. Finally, among all the differences observed in the metabolic profile, it is worth highlighting the accumulation of tyrosine and isoleucine, both amino acids involved in the synthesis of abiotic stress response-related secondary metabolites.
Open Access
Búsqueda de submercados inmobiliarios mediante modelos de mixturas
(Gobierno de Navarra, Departamento de Economía y Hacienda, 2003) Militino, Ana F.; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Estadística e Investigación Operativa; Estatistika eta Ikerketa Operatiboa
La heterogeneidad presente en el mercado inmobiliario dificulta enormemente su análisis y puede conllevar la presencia de submercados. En este caso, el modelo clásico de regresión lineal múltiple, ampliamente utilizado con este tipo de datos, puede no ser adecuado y, por tanto, es necesaria la utilización de técnicas estadísticas más específicas que resuelvan el problema de la heterogeneidad y de la búsqueda de submercados. En este trabajo se propone un modelo de mixturas de modelos lineales que proporciona un buen ajuste a los datos, a la vez que una clasificación de las observaciones en diferentes grupos o submercados potenciales. El modelo se ilustra mediante el análisis de un conjunto de 293 viviendas usadas de Pamplona.
Open Access
Multivariate Bayesian spatio-temporal P-spline models to analyze crimes against women
(Oxford University Press, 2021) Vicente Fuenzalida, Gonzalo; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas
Univariate spatio-temporal models for areal count data have received great attention in recent years for estimating risks. However, models for studying multivariate responses are less commonly used mainly due to the computational burden. In this article, multivariate spatio-temporal P-spline models are proposed to study different forms of violence against women. Modeling distinct crimes jointly improves the precision of estimates over univariate models and allows to compute correlations among them. The correlation between the spatial and the temporal patterns may suggest connections among the different crimes that will certainly benefit a thorough comprehension of this problem that affects millions of women around the world. The models are fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations and are used to analyze four distinct crimes against women at district level in the Indian state of Maharashtra during the period 2001-2013.
Open Access
Age- and sex-specific spatio-temporal patterns of colorectal cancer mortality in Spain (1975-2008)
(BioMed Central, 2014) Etxeberria Andueza, Jaione; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Militino, Ana F.; Estadística e Investigación Operativa; Estatistika eta Ikerketa Operatiboa
In this paper, space-time patterns of colorectal cancer (CRC) mortality risks are studied by sex and age group (50-69, ≥70) in Spanish provinces during the period 1975-2008. Space-time conditional autoregressive models are used to perform the statistical analyses. A pronounced increase in mortality risk has been observed in males for both age-groups. For males between 50 and 69 years of age, trends seem to stabilize from 2001 onward. In females, trends reflect a more stable pattern during the period in both age groups. However, for the 50-69 years group, risks take an upward trend in the period 2006-2008 after the slight decline observed in the second half of the period. This study offers interesting information regarding CRC mortality distribution among different Spanish provinces that could be used to improve prevention policies and resource allocation in different regions.
Open Access
A two-stage approach to estimate spatial and spatio-temporal disease risks in the presence of local discontinuities and clusters
(SAGE, 2018-04-13) Adin Urtasun, Aritz; Lee, Duncan; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2
Disease risk maps for areal unit data are often estimated from Poisson mixed models with local spatial smoothing, for example by incorporating random effects with a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, one of the limitations is that local discontinuities in the spatial pattern are not usually modelled, leading to over-smoothing of the risk maps and a masking of clusters of hot/coldspot areas. In this paper, we propose a novel two-stage approach to estimate and map disease risk in the presence of such local discontinuities and clusters. We propose approaches in both spatial and spatio-temporal domains, where for the latter the clusters can either be fixed or allowed to vary over time. In the first stage, we apply an agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm to training data to provide sets of potential clusters, and in the second stage, a two-level spatial or spatio-temporal model is applied to each potential cluster configuration. The superiority of the proposed approach with regard to a previous proposal is shown by simulation, and the methodology is applied to two important public health problems in Spain, namely stomach cancer mortality across Spain and brain cancer incidence in the Navarre and Basque Country regions of Spain.
Open Access
La necesidad de un manifiesto a favor de la alfabetización estadística: editorial
(Sociedad Estadística e Investigación Operativa (SEIO), 2025-03-27) Casals, Martí ; Daunis i Estadella, Pepus; Galé, Carmen; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Patino-Alonso, Carmen; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2
Imagina leer el siguiente titular en un periódico: “Las personas que consumen café tienen un 50% menos de probabilidad de desarrollar ciertas enfermedades”. A partir de esta lectura, decides aumentar tu consumo diario de café. Sin embargo, antes de tomar esa decisión hay que conocer cómo se ha llegado a dicha conclusión: cuál es el tamaño de la muestra, el diseño del estudio, sobre qué población se aplica, el método de recolección de datos, y valorar si es posible establecer relaciones causales. Este ejemplo ilustra como la falta de conocimiento sobre el procedimiento puede comprometer la validez del estudio y se puede traducir en una interpretación incorrecta o unos resultados sesgados. Una comunicación deficiente puede llevar decisiones mal fundamentadas, incluso en áreas críticas como la salud y el bienestar (Spiegelhalter, 2019).
Open Access
Bayesian inference in multivariate spatio-temporal areal models using INLA: analysis of gender-based violence in small areas
(Springer, 2020) Vicente Fuenzalida, Gonzalo; Goicoa Mangado, Tomás; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas
Multivariate models for spatial count data are currently receiving attention in disease mapping to model two or more diseases jointly. They have been thoroughly studied from a theoretical point of view, but their use in practice is still limited because they are computationally expensive and, in general, they are not implemented in standard software to be used routinely. Here, a new multivariate proposal, based on the recently derived M models for spatial data, is developed for spatio-temporal areal data. The model takes account of the correlation between the spatial and temporal patterns of the phenomena being studied, and it also includes spatio-temporal interactions. Though multivariate models have been traditionally fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques, here we propose to adopt integrated nested Laplace approximations to speed up computations as results obtained using both fitting techniques were nearly identical. The techniques are used to analyse two forms of crimes against women in India. In particular, we focus on the joint analysis of rapes and dowry deaths in Uttar Pradesh, the most populated Indian state, during the years 2001-2014.