Open Access
The effect of US holidays on European markets: when the cat's away...
(Wiley, 2013) Casado Sorozabal, Jorge; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper presents evidence of the existence of a return effect on European stock markets coinciding with NYSE holidays, which is particularly marked after positive closing returns on the NYSE the previous day. The effect is large enough to be exploited by trading index futures. This anomaly can not be explained by seasonal effects, such as the day of the week effect, the January effect or the pre-holiday effect, nor is it consistent with behavioral finance models that predict positive correlation between trading volume and returns. However, examination of factors such as information volume or investor mix provides a reasonable explanation.
Open Access
The role of sentiment and stock characteristics in the translation of analysts’ forecasts into recommendations
(Elsevier, 2019) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
The purpose of this paper is to further understanding of the determinants of analysts’ translational effectiveness and, specifically, the role of stock characteristics in the impact of sentiment in the translation of analysts’ forecasts into recommendations. We construct a proxy of intrinsic value of a stock based on that of Ohlson (1995), which incorporates all the information contained in the analysts’ earnings forecasts. Our results show that, although analysts do translate their earnings forecast valuations into recommendations, the effectiveness of this process is reduced by investor sentiment only in highly sentiment-sensitive stocks. This suggests the degree of analyst coverage as a potential conditioner of the observable results in a market. While not totally eliminating this observed effect, the Market Abuse Directive regulation does contribute to reduce the skew between analysts’ earnings forecasts and their recommendations. Finally, analysis of this effect reveals that this kind of skew enables investment strategies yielding positive risk-adjusted returns in highly sentiment-sensitive stocks, during periods of high market sentiment.
Open Access
Progress in the removal of pharmaceutical compounds from aqueous solution using layered double hydroxides as adsorbents: a review
(Elsevier, 2020) Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Vicente, Miguel Ángel; Korili, Sophia A.; Gil Bravo, Antonio; Zientziak; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Ciencias; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
Emerging contaminants and, among them, pharmaceutical compounds, have a significant impact on water ecosystems. Layered Double Hydroxides (LDH), being easy to synthesize and cheap materials, have recently gained attention as adsorbents in aqueous solutions. This work describes the latest research performed in the adsorption capacity of LDH towards both antibiotics and Non-Steroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs (NSAID) describing and analyzing the synthesis conditions (Me2+:Me3+ molar ratio, calcination temperature, choice of metals for the memory effect), kinetics and isotherm models used, use of support (more practical in a 3D over a 2D form), temperature effect and several techniques for the recovery of the adsorbents. LDH exhibited great performance and potential as clean adsorbents for these emerging contaminants.
Open Access
The role of small bettors in price formation in betting exchanges
(Routledge, 2020) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
The presence of small bettors in betting exchanges generates mispricing, which can lead to exploitation by informed traders or result in permanent price deviations. This paper shows that mispricing from this source is also dependent upon variables of established relevance such as tournament round, the level of attention to the event, the volume of the betting, and bet type, further confirming these findings by means of cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) curves. It also offers evidence of the relevant role played by the type of device used to place the bet, whereby higher mispricing is observed in live bets placed via a mobile device, which appears to be associated with impulsive betting. This last finding could have practical implications for the regulation of the use of mobile devices to access gambling platforms.
Open Access
Value of analysts’ consensus recommendations and investor sentiment
(Taylor & Francis, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper studies the effect of investor sentiment on analysts' consensus recommendations. Our results show that the optimistic bias of analysts in the issuing of recommendations is affected by investor sentiment: the greater the investor sentiment, the more optimistically biased the analysts’ consensus recommendations. This bias is larger in stocks whose characteristics make them hard to value or to arbitrage. We also show that investor sentiment can help in the design of profitable strategies, particularly when taking the short position in portfolios with high sentiment sensitivity stocks.
Open Access
Coasimetría idiosincrática y riesgo de insolvencia en el mercado de valores español
(AECA, 2014) González Urteaga, Ana; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
En el presente trabajo se analiza la relación entre el riesgo asimétrico, aproximado por las medidas de coasimetría y coasimetría idiosincrática, y el riesgo de insolvencia en el mercado de valores español. Se ha encontrado que aquellos títulos con mayor riesgo asimétrico proporcionan mayores rentabilidades durante el periodo considerado, en especial aquellos con valores positivos de la medida de coasimetría idiosincrática. Sin embargo, ni los factores de riesgo construidos en base a esta medida, ni el factor de riesgo de coasimetría proporcionan capacidad explicativa a las rentabilidades diferenciales de las carteras convencionales formadas por riesgo de insolvencia, siendo principalmente el factor tamaño (SMB) el que aporta explicación a dichas rentabilidades, tanto en periodos expansivos como durante el periodo de crisis financiera. Los factores de riesgo asimétrico únicamente presentan capacidad explicativa en el caso de carteras con riesgo de insolvencia más extremo y durante el periodo de crisis financiera internacional.
Open Access
El sentimiento del inversor y las rentabilidades de las acciones. El caso español
(AECA, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
El presente trabajo analiza el efecto del sentimiento en las rentabilidades de los activos del mercado español. Los resultados muestran un efecto significativo del índice de sentimiento local sobre las rentabilidades de los activos del propio mercado, tanto sobre el mercado en su conjunto como en carteras de activos más sensibles por su dificultad de valoración o de arbitraje. También se ha mostrado la existencia de un efecto del sentimiento en dos esferas diferentes, una de ámbito más global y otra de ámbito local independiente de la anterior, probablemente ligada a aspectos institucionales o culturales del mercado. Si bien el primero causa al segundo, no se encuentra evidencia de que el mecanismo de transmisión esté relacionado con la actividad real asociada con los flujos de capitales entre mercados. El análisis del efecto del sentimiento durante la última crisis financiera robustece los resultados. No obstante, el sentimiento global absorbe todo el efecto del sentimiento local lo que deja intuir el carácter global de la crisis actual.
Open Access
Does default probability matter in Latin American emerging markets?
(Taylor & Francis, 2013) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
We analyse the impact of default probability in four leading Latin American stock markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico). We find no positive default risk premium except in the case of Brazil, and in fact find a negative risk premium for Argentina and Mexico. The latter effect tends to fade when the analysis accounts for size and BTM market variables. Although we find no size effect in any of the markets considered, the BTM effect is very strong in all of them, and our results reveal a consistent relationship, analogous to that found in more developed markets, between default probability and the size and book-to-market variables.
Open Access
The role of investor type in the fee structures of pension plans
(Springer, 2016) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
We examine the role of the investor type in the fee structure of pension plans. Our examination uses a data set of employer-sponsored and individual private pension funds in Spain. We find different determinants of the fees between these two pension plans. We find evidence of market penetration strategies in individual plans but none in employer-sponsored plans. In these plans, the fees are negatively related to their financial groups’ market share, whereas in individual plans this relation is negative for management fees but positive for custodian fees. Further, except in the case of custodian fees in individual plans, we find that all fees diminish when the custodian and management firms belong to different financial groups.
Open Access
Influence of IPO characteristics on liquidity
(AECA, 2011) Acedo Ramírez, Miguel Ángel; Ruiz Cabestre, Francisco Javier; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
Este estudio examina la relación existente entre las características que definen las Ofertas Públicas de Venta Iniciales (OPIs) y la liquidez de las acciones en circulación tras la ejecución de estas operaciones. Se argumenta que a mayor infravaloración, tamaño relativo y composición minorista de las ofertas, mayor será la liquidez de las acciones tras la admisión a cotización. Los resultados procedentes de una muestra de OPIs del mercado bursátil español revelan que la liquidez, tras la ejecución de estas operaciones, puede ser explicada por las características que las definen. Además, éstos permanecen robustos tras excluir el efecto del mercado e incluir otras características adicionales de las OPIs tales comos compromisos de estabilización, restricciones lockup y reputación de coordinadores, aseguradores y auditores.