Open Access
Digitalization, multinationals and employment: an empirical analysis of their causal relationships
(De Gruyter Oldenbourg, 2019) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Latorre, María C.; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
This study measures the effects of digitalization related to Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) investment on employment and other economic variables according to firms' ownership. We present two computable general equilibrium models (with full employment and with unemployment) which differentiate two types of firms: National and foreign multinationals (MNEs). Both types of firms allow for the substitution between labour and ICT capital. We conclude that ICT investments significantly create jobs and raise real wages, GDP and welfare. The aggregate positive effects are stronger for ICT investment in national firms than in foreign MNEs although the sign of some sectoral effects can be negative. We also analyze the role of wage flexibility in this context, with the most favorable results related to scenarios where wages are more rigid for both cases, when investors are national firms or foreign MNEs. The model is applied to the case of Spain, a country with a high unemployment rate where ICT investment has been large since the mid 1990s.
Open Access
More integrated than ever? Long-term market and policy drivers of intra-Asian trade
(Institute for International Economics, Sejong University, 2023) Ayuso Díaz, Alejandro; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
Since the Doha Round stalemate after 2001, trade liberalization has progressed through regional trade agreements (RTAs) and East and Southeast Asia is not unfamiliar with this. Before assessing the effectiveness of recent trade agreements, the long tradition of trade exchange in this region that has lasted for more than 2,000 years necessitates an understanding of the evolution of intra-Asian trade across history. In this regard, this study contributes to the literature examining whether present intra-Asian trade is more or less intense than before 1938. This research outperforms previous studies using a gravity model that controls for changes in GDP and trade costs in the region across four different time periods (between 1840 and 2018). The results show that contemporary regional trade in East and Southeast Asia is slightly less intense than before World War II. A second question addressed is the relevance of trade agreements after the 1985 Plaza Accord on trade integration, compared with market determinants. A second gravity model for regional imports after 1986 is regressed on both policy and market indicators, indicating that the latest wave of intra-Asian trade is characterized by trade complementarities that are fueled by regional foreign direct investment, and free trade agreements are less effective. This result is validated through a network analysis demonstrating the symbiosis between trade and investment flows in the region, which should be considered in RTAs that are in place or in negotiation to take intra-Asian trade beyond its historical limits.
Open Access
Provision of public health services and sustainable development: evidence for 12 emerging countries
(MDPI, 2020) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
In this paper, we quantify the effects of an increase in the public provision of health services in a set of 12 emerging economies (i.e., Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, India, Kazakhstan, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Russia, South Africa and Tunisia), representing 45% of world population in 2018. We use a computable general equilibrium model and simulate an increase in the real government expenditure devoted to public health services up to a 20% of total government expenditure, which is also assumed to raise labour productivity. This increase leads to expansionary effects in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) and employment for all the economies under analysis and an increase in the ratio of government deficit to GDP, ranging between 3.66 points for Russia and 0.24 points for Colombia. If, in addition, direct tax rates on labour are increased to offset this result, the effects on GDP and employment become contractionary in most cases; whereas if indirect tax rates are those to be increased, small expansionary effects are again the norm with the only exception of Russia.
Open Access
Austerity and asymmetries in the fiscal policies of the Eurozone: the case of Southern Europe
(Springer, 2025-04-23) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
In this paper, we analyse the effects of several austerity policies implemented by the Southern European countries, i.e., Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain on the economies of the European Union and the rest of the world. In particular, we simulate the reduction in one point in the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in each of these countries, through several alternative policies, both from the spending side and the revenue side. The empirical methodology is based on a computable general equilibrium model, which incorporates the backward sectoral linkages and inter-country flows generated by fiscal consolidations. Our results show that these austerity policies were generally more painful, in terms of a fall in the levels of activity and a worsening in income distribution for labour, in the scenarios of tax increases rather than in those based on spending cuts. The effects on the rest of the European Union and the rest of the world were however mostly negligible.
Open Access
Raising the accuracy of shadow economy measurements
(Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, 2021) Ríos Ibáñez, Vicente; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Pascual Arzoz, Pedro; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua
En este artículo se estima el tamaño de la economía sumergida en una región española (Navarra) para el período 1986-2016. Se han empleado métodos macroeconométricos indirectos, como el enfoque de Demanda de efectivo, dos métodos de Consumo de electricidad (inputs físicos) y el enfoque de Múltiples Indicadores y Múltiples Causas (MIMIC). Una característica diferencial del análisis empírico es la incorporación de varias innovaciones metodológicas (por ejemplo, el promediado bayesiano de modelos, un modelo de parámetros que varían en el tiempo, o la normalización de la variable latente) para refinar y aumentar la precisión de medición de cada uno de los métodos indirectos considerados. El patrón temporal del tamaño de la economía sumergida que surge de los diferentes enfoques es similar, lo que sugiere que las estimaciones obtenidas son sólidas y capturan la dinámica subyacente del sector oculto. Después de cuantificar la economía sumergida, se analizan sus determinantes mediante técnicas de promediado bayesiano de modelos. Encontramos que la evolución de la economía sumergida en Navarra puede explicarse por un conjunto pequeño y robusto de factores: la carga fiscal, el empleo en el sector de la construcción, la tasa de inflación, la pertenencia a la zona euro y la ratio del efectivo fuera de los bancos en relación a M1.
Open Access
Public policies and sport participation in Spain and Portugal
(Routledge, 2023) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Lera López, Fernando; Maia, António de Araújo Barros; Economía; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
This chapter examines the transformation and evolution of sports participation that has occurred in Spain and Portugal during the last years and the relevance of the public policies in explaining this evolution. The main areas covered in this chapter include an analysis of the evolution of sports participation in both countries, considering potential similarities. It also discusses the public policies developed in sport by policymakers in both countries and the main laws that regulate this activity. It also examines the distribution of public expenditure in sports within the main levels of public administration in Spain and Portugal. The chapter finishes with a comparison of sports participation and sport public policies developed in both countries.
Open Access
A multi-country analysis of austerity policies in the European Union
(Wiley, 2021) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
We analyse the global effects from the austerity policies recently implemented in the EU, by developing an extension of the GTAP general equilibrium model. The extended model incorporates a new specification of the trade balance (i.e. endogenous), the labour market (i.e. unemployment under a wage curve framework) and the public sector (i.e. split from the representative national agent, with endogenous expenditure and savings). Three alternative policies aimed to get a one percentage point reduction in the EU’s government deficit to GDP ratio are simulated, and their effects on the main macroeconomic variables of seven regions of the world economy are examined. The three policy measures led to contractionary effects on the EU’s activity levels, together with changes in income distribution, always detrimental to labour. The effects on the rest of the world, driven by changes in trade flows, were, however, mostly negligible.
Open Access
Las cotizaciones sociales en España y la Unión Europea: simulando algunas posibles reformas
(FUNCAS, 2019) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de una reducción de las cotizaciones sociales a cargo de los empresarios, acompañada o no de un incremento en los tipos de los impuestos indirectos, utilizando la metodología del equilibrio general aplicado en el marco de un modelo multipaís. Los resultados muestran que un descenso de un 10 por 100 en las cotizaciones sociales se traduciría en unos incrementos moderados en los niveles del PIB y empleo de la economía española, con una reducción de la tasa de desempleo de aproximadamente medio punto. Los efectos serían cuantitativamente menores si la reducción de las cotizaciones sociales viene acompañada de un incremento en la imposición indirecta. Cuando la reducción de cotizaciones sociales se lleva a cabo en la UE-14, sus efectos sobre la economía española solamente son significativos, aunque de pequeña magnitud, en el caso de plena movilidad internacional de factores productivos.
Open Access
La eficiencia energética, el efecto rebote y el crecimiento económico
(Funcas, 2016) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Arocena Garro, Pablo; Peña Vidondo, Sofía; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
El trabajo revisa la relación entre la mejora de la eficiencia energética y el efecto rebote, así como el impacto que cabe anticipar sobre el consumo de energía y el crecimiento en la economía española.
Open Access
When multinationals leave: a CGE analysis of the impact of divestments
(Kiel Institute for World Economy, 2014) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Latorre, María C.; Economía; Ekonomia
Most studies on Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) focus on the impact of their expansion through inward or outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. However, divestments are quite common among the operations of MNEs. In order to derive their effects, we build a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes two non-standard characteristics: the presence of MNEs and unemployment. The model is applied to the Spanish economy, where FDI inflows have surpassed divestments at the aggregate level in the period 2005-2009, although divestments have been sizeable in ten sectors. We analyse two different scenarios: 1) divestments that involve the closure of plants of foreign affiliates and 2) divestments where national firms buy the plant of foreign affiliates. The model allows estimating the overall impact of the divestments occurring simultaneously in ten sectors and in particular sectors. Results not only show that national acquisitions are less harmful than closures, but quantify those effects, and provide information on the role of the divesting sector. Some adjustment costs arise in all scenarios.