Open Access
The impact of investor sentiment on stock returns in emerging markets. The case of Central European markets
(Taylor & Francis, 2015) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper studies the effect of investor sentiment on stock returns in three Central European markets: the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. The results show that sentiment is a key variable in the prices of stocks traded on these markets and its impact is stronger here than in more developed European markets. This effect is linked to stock characteristics, particularly those considered to make stocks more prone to the influences of investor sentiment. The evidence shows that the effect is not uniform across countries, since higher levels are found for Poland and the Czech Republic, thus confirming the role of country-specific factors in the impact of investor sentiment on stock prices. The results also confirm that sentiment is a twofold (global and local) phenomenon, in which the global dimension has much greater impact than the local dimension, at least in the markets considered. Finally, the paper has shown that sentiment does not spread, at least to any significant degree, through the movement of capital between markets. This strengthens the argument that sentiment is transmitted through a behavioral mechanism. If this argument proves correct, there is little likelihood of local regulatory action being very effective in limiting the perverse impact of asset bubbles.
Open Access
Does investor sentiment affect bank stability? International evidence from lending behavior
(Elsevier, 2021) Cubillas, Elena; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Suárez Suárez, Nuria; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
We study the impact of investor sentiment on bank credit and how changes in lending may affect bank stability. We analyze a sample of 2,673 banks from 127 developed and developing countries during the 1997–2016 period. Our results indicate that periods of high investor sentiment positively affect bank lending and encourage bank risk-taking through the increase in the amount of loans granted which, in fact, reduces bank stability. We find that the impact of investor sentiment on bank stability through changes in growth in bank loans is less negative in countries where creditor rights protection is greater, in terms of both collateral and bankruptcy. During systemic banking crises, the negative effect on bank stability was weaker since any increase in bank credit supply provoked by investor sentiment was counteracted by the crisis.
Open Access
Is cognitive bias really present in analyst forecasts? The role of investor sentiment
(Elsevier, 2014) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyses four key markets within the European context. In this context, where the level of analyst coverage is lower than in the US setting, we aim to ascertain whether the origin of optimism in analyst forecasts in these markets is mainly strategic or whether it also contains an element of cognitive bias. Despite the fact that forecast errors lack the explanatory power to account for a significant percentage of the relationship between market sentiment and future stock returns, our new tests based on selection bias (SB1 and SB2), in conjunction with an analysis of abnormal trading volume, confirm the presence of both cognitive bias and strategic behaviour in analyst forecasts. This shows that, although regulation can reduce analyst optimism bias, the benefits are constrained by the fact that optimism bias is partly associated with cognitive bias.
Open Access
Enhancing learning in the finance classroom
(Universidad Politécnica de Valencia., 2022) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Río Solano, María Cristina del; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; González Urteaga, Ana; Mansilla Fernández, José Manuel; Martínez García, Beatriz; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper aims to describe a teaching-learning experience based on ProjectBased Learning (PBL). This experience is part of an educational innovation project devoted to transforming finance classes in various facets of financial advice. Specifically, the article focuses on the transformation process of a subject that studies financial markets and the assets traded in them. Based on this experience, the classroom becomes a financial consulting firm that advises investors on how to invest their capital. The results show us a remarkable active dedication of the students to the course, improved knowledge, and marks. In addition, the development of skills and values such as teamwork, autonomy, solidarity, equality, and professional skills are elements that encourage us to continue along this line.
Open Access
Sentiment-prone investors and volatility dynamics between spot and futures markets
(Elsevier, 2015) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyses the role of investor sentiment in the contemporaneous dynamics of spot and futures markets and in volatility spillovers between them. To explore this issue, we analyse spot and futures markets on stock market indexes in different countries: the S&P500 for the US, and a representative set of European indexes (CAC40, DAX30, FTSE100, IBEX35 and Eurostoxx50). Consistent with expectations, we have shown that the correlation is not stable with the level of investor sentiment. More specifically, the correlation between the two markets diminishes significantly during periods of high investor sentiment. Moreover, volatility shocks in either market are also found to have less impact during these periods. These results are compatible with behavioural finance theories suggesting that high investor sentiment leads to an increase in noise trading and a decline in arbitrage activity due to institutional investors’ attempts to limit their risk exposure.
Open Access
Value of analysts’ consensus recommendations and investor sentiment
(Taylor & Francis, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper studies the effect of investor sentiment on analysts' consensus recommendations. Our results show that the optimistic bias of analysts in the issuing of recommendations is affected by investor sentiment: the greater the investor sentiment, the more optimistically biased the analysts’ consensus recommendations. This bias is larger in stocks whose characteristics make them hard to value or to arbitrage. We also show that investor sentiment can help in the design of profitable strategies, particularly when taking the short position in portfolios with high sentiment sensitivity stocks.
Open Access
Analyst optimism and market sentiment: evidence from European corporate sustainability reporters
(Elsevier, 2024) Río Solano, María Cristina del; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; López Arceiz, Francisco José; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
This study investigates the effect of investor sentiment on analysts’ optimism bias for a set of European companies with high-quality non-financial information reporting. The contents of the reports should make stock recommendations for such firms that are less prone to sentiment-driven optimism bias; our observations show this to be the case. For further insight, we analysed the informative value of stock recommendations in high- and low-sentiment periods, taking sustainability reporting quality into account. We find that buy recommendations for high-sustainability stocks have no informational value when sentiment is high, whereas informative recommendations in the form of sell recommendations for low-sustainability stocks appear when sentiment is high.
Open Access
El sentimiento del inversor y las rentabilidades de las acciones. El caso español
(AECA, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
El presente trabajo analiza el efecto del sentimiento en las rentabilidades de los activos del mercado español. Los resultados muestran un efecto significativo del índice de sentimiento local sobre las rentabilidades de los activos del propio mercado, tanto sobre el mercado en su conjunto como en carteras de activos más sensibles por su dificultad de valoración o de arbitraje. También se ha mostrado la existencia de un efecto del sentimiento en dos esferas diferentes, una de ámbito más global y otra de ámbito local independiente de la anterior, probablemente ligada a aspectos institucionales o culturales del mercado. Si bien el primero causa al segundo, no se encuentra evidencia de que el mecanismo de transmisión esté relacionado con la actividad real asociada con los flujos de capitales entre mercados. El análisis del efecto del sentimiento durante la última crisis financiera robustece los resultados. No obstante, el sentimiento global absorbe todo el efecto del sentimiento local lo que deja intuir el carácter global de la crisis actual.
Open Access
Consumer confidence indices and stock markets' meltdowns
(Routledge, 2016) Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Salaber, Julie; Zalewska, Anna; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
Consumer confidence indices (CCIs) are a closely monitored barometer of countries' economic health, and an informative forecasting tool. Using European and US data, we provide a case study of the two recent stock market meltdowns (the post-dotcom bubble correction of 2000-2002 and the 2007-2009 decline at the beginning of the financial crisis) to contribute to the discussion on their appropriateness as proxies for stock markets' investor sentiment. Investor sentiment should positively covary with stock market movements (DeLong et al., 1990), however, we find that the CCI-stock market relationship is not universally positive. We also do not find support for the information effect documented in previous literature, but identify a more subtle relationship between consumer expectations about future household finances and stock market fluctuations.
Open Access
The role of sentiment and stock characteristics in the translation of analysts’ forecasts into recommendations
(Elsevier, 2019) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas
The purpose of this paper is to further understanding of the determinants of analysts’ translational effectiveness and, specifically, the role of stock characteristics in the impact of sentiment in the translation of analysts’ forecasts into recommendations. We construct a proxy of intrinsic value of a stock based on that of Ohlson (1995), which incorporates all the information contained in the analysts’ earnings forecasts. Our results show that, although analysts do translate their earnings forecast valuations into recommendations, the effectiveness of this process is reduced by investor sentiment only in highly sentiment-sensitive stocks. This suggests the degree of analyst coverage as a potential conditioner of the observable results in a market. While not totally eliminating this observed effect, the Market Abuse Directive regulation does contribute to reduce the skew between analysts’ earnings forecasts and their recommendations. Finally, analysis of this effect reveals that this kind of skew enables investment strategies yielding positive risk-adjusted returns in highly sentiment-sensitive stocks, during periods of high market sentiment.