Moradi, Mohammad Mehdi
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Moradi
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Mohammad Mehdi
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Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas
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Publication Open Access Locally adaptive change-point detection (LACPD) with applications to environmental changes(Springer, 2021) Moradi, Mohammad Mehdi; Montesino San Martín, Manuel; Ugarte Martínez, María Dolores; Militino, Ana F.; Estatistika, Informatika eta Matematika; Institute for Advanced Materials and Mathematics - INAMAT2; Estadística, Informática y MatemáticasWe propose an adaptive-sliding-window approach (LACPD) for the problem of change-point detection in a set of time-ordered observations. The proposed method is combined with sub-sampling techniques to compensate for the lack of enough data near the time series’ tails. Through a simulation study, we analyse its behaviour in the presence of an early/middle/late change-point in the mean, and compare its performance with some of the frequently used and recently developed change-point detection methods in terms of power, type I error probability, area under the ROC curves (AUC), absolute bias, variance, and root-mean-square error (RMSE). We conclude that LACPD outperforms other methods by maintaining a low type I error probability. Unlike some other methods, the performance of LACPD does not depend on the time index of change-points, and it generally has lower bias than other alternative methods. Moreover, in terms of variance and RMSE, it outperforms other methods when change-points are close to the time series’ tails, whereas it shows a similar (sometimes slightly poorer) performance as other methods when change-points are close to the middle of time series. Finally, we apply our proposal to two sets of real data: the well-known example of annual flow of the Nile river in Awsan, Egypt, from 1871 to 1970, and a novel remote sensing data application consisting of a 34-year time-series of satellite images of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index in Wadi As-Sirham valley, Saudi Arabia, from 1986 to 2019. We conclude that LACPD shows a good performance in detecting the presence of a change as well as the time and magnitude of change in real conditions.Publication Open Access Hierarchical spatio-temporal change-point detection(Taylor and Francis Group, 2023) Moradi, Mohammad Mehdi; Cronie, Ottmar; Pérez Goya, Unai; Mateu, Jorge; Estadística, Informática y Matemáticas; Estatistika, Informatika eta MatematikaDetecting change-points in multivariate settings is usually carried out by analyzing all marginals either independently, via univariate methods, or jointly, through multivariate approaches. The former discards any inherent dependencies between different marginals and the latter may suffer from domination/masking among different change-points of distinct marginals. As a remedy, we propose an approach which groups marginals with similar temporal behaviors, and then performs group-wise multivariate change-point detection. Our approach groups marginals based on hierarchical clustering using distances which adjust for inherent dependencies. Through a simulation study we show that our approach, by preventing domination/masking, significantly enhances the general performance of the employed multivariate change-point detection method. Finally, we apply our approach to two datasets: (i) Land Surface Temperature in Spain, during the years 2000–2021, and (ii) The WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary data.