Open Access
Market sentiment: a key factor of investors' imitative behaviour
(Wiley, 2012) Blasco de las Heras, Natividad; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferreruela Garcés, Sandra; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua
The aim of this paper is to explore herding behavior among investors in order to determine its rational and emotional component factors and identify relationships among them. We apply causality tests to evaluate the impact of return and market sentiment on herding intensity. The herding intensity is quantified using the measure developed by Patterson and Sharma (2006). The research was conducted during the period 1997-2003 in the Spanish stock market, where the presence of herding has been confirmed. The results reveal that the herding intensity depends on past returns and sentiment or subjective assessments and confirm the presence of both a rational and an emotional factor.
Open Access
El sentimiento del inversor y las rentabilidades de las acciones. El caso español
(AECA, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
El presente trabajo analiza el efecto del sentimiento en las rentabilidades de los activos del mercado español. Los resultados muestran un efecto significativo del índice de sentimiento local sobre las rentabilidades de los activos del propio mercado, tanto sobre el mercado en su conjunto como en carteras de activos más sensibles por su dificultad de valoración o de arbitraje. También se ha mostrado la existencia de un efecto del sentimiento en dos esferas diferentes, una de ámbito más global y otra de ámbito local independiente de la anterior, probablemente ligada a aspectos institucionales o culturales del mercado. Si bien el primero causa al segundo, no se encuentra evidencia de que el mecanismo de transmisión esté relacionado con la actividad real asociada con los flujos de capitales entre mercados. El análisis del efecto del sentimiento durante la última crisis financiera robustece los resultados. No obstante, el sentimiento global absorbe todo el efecto del sentimiento local lo que deja intuir el carácter global de la crisis actual.
Open Access
Intentional herding in stock markets: an alternative approach in an international context
(Edward Elgar, 2010) Blasco de las Heras, Natividad; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferreruela Garcés, Sandra; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua
One of the issues of greatest concern in the world of finance is trying to understand how investors make decisions. The classic theoretical explanations are based on conditions of investor rationality and the perfection of markets, and the use of information available in the market as a decisive tool. In recent years the branch of behavioural finance has emerged strongly in the field to try to expand this vision of investor behaviour. Factors associated with the psychological and sociological behaviour of individuals have been introduced as significant elements that go some way to explain investor decisions. Thaler (1991) and Shefrin (2000), among others, have incorporated an emotional component into the classic models considering both visions as compatible and complementary. A survey of the history and contributions in this field of finance in recent years can be found in Sewell (2007).
Open Access
Value of analysts’ consensus recommendations and investor sentiment
(Taylor & Francis, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper studies the effect of investor sentiment on analysts' consensus recommendations. Our results show that the optimistic bias of analysts in the issuing of recommendations is affected by investor sentiment: the greater the investor sentiment, the more optimistically biased the analysts’ consensus recommendations. This bias is larger in stocks whose characteristics make them hard to value or to arbitrage. We also show that investor sentiment can help in the design of profitable strategies, particularly when taking the short position in portfolios with high sentiment sensitivity stocks.
Open Access
Investor sentiment effect in stock markets: stock characteristics or country-specific factors?
(Elsevier, 2013) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferrer Zubiate, Elena; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper analyzes the investor sentiment effect in four key European stock markets: France, Germany, Spain and the UK. The findings show that sentiment has a significant influence on returns, varying in intensity across markets. The variation appears to involve both stock characteristics and cross-country cultural or institutional differences. The results also show sensitivity to the choice of sentiment proxy.
Open Access
Does herding affect volatility? Implications for the Spanish stock market
(Taylor & Francis, 2012) Blasco de las Heras, Natividad; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferreruela Garcés, Sandra; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
According to rational expectation models, uninformed or liquidity trading make market price volatility rise. This paper sets out to analyze the impact of herding, which may be interpreted as one of the components of uninformed trading, on the volatility of the Spanish stock market. Herding is examined at the intraday level, considered the most reliable sampling frequency for detecting this type of investor behavior, and measured using the Patterson and Sharma (2006) herding intensity measure. Different volatility measures (historical, realized and implied) are employed. The results confirm that herding has a direct linear impact on volatility for all of the volatility measures considered although the corresponding intensity is not always the same. In fact, herding variables seem to be useful in volatility forecasting and therefore in decision making when volatility is considered a key factor.
Open Access
Detecting intentional herding: what lies beneath intraday data in the Spanish stock market
(Palgrave Macmillan, 2011) Blasco de las Heras, Natividad; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Ferreruela Garcés, Sandra; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
This paper examines the intentional herd behaviour of market participants, using Li´s test to compare the probability distributions of the scaled cross-sectional deviation in returns in the intraday market with the cross-sectional deviation in returns in an “artificially created” market free of intentional herding effects. The analysis is carried out for both the overall market and a sample of the most representative stocks. Additionally, a bootstrap procedure is applied in order to gain a deeper understanding of the differences across the distributions under study. The results show that the Spanish market exhibits a significant intraday herding effect that is not detected using other traditional herding measures when familiar and heavily traded stocks are analysed. Furthermore, it is suggested that intentional herding is likely to be better revealed using intraday data, and that the use of a lower frequency data may obscure results revealing imitative behaviour in the market.
Open Access
TQM and performance: Is the relationship so obvious?
(Elsevier, 2011) Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Goñi Legaz, Salomé; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa
The aim of this study is to explore more fully the relationship between total quality management (TQM) and firm performance, taking TQM as an internally consistent system of practices. The paper tests the link between the two variables using the universal approach, analyzes whether the most competitive firms are those adopting TQM, and tests for an isomorphic effect on other firms. The study uses a sample of Spanish firms that have received TQM prizes at the national or regional level between 1997 and 2003 and a control sample for comparison. The findings indicate that in the absence of any evidence to confirm the universal hypothesis, TQM pioneers experience performance gains, because of the early implementation of the system; however, late adopters do not experience similar results. Firms using a TQM system are not necessarily better than their counterparts are, before putting the system into action. One important aspect of the contribution of this study is of a methodological nature, since it uses panel data, which takes into account the unobservable heterogeneity between individuals and the dynamics of firms’ financial variables.