Person: Guillén Grima, Francisco
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Guillén Grima
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Francisco
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Ciencias de la Salud
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0000-0001-9749-8076
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Publication Open Access Maternal mortality in Africa: regional trends (2000-2017)(MDPI, 2022) Onambele, Luc; Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Forjaz, Maria Joao; Yoseph, Amanuel; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Arnedo Pena, Alberto; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun ZientziakBackground: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa’s leading causes of death among women. The leading causes of maternal mortality in Africa are hemorrhage and eclampsia. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality (MM) in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) databank from 2000 to 2017, 2017 being the last date available. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of −3.0% (95% CI −2.9; −3,2%). All regions showed significant downward trends, with the greatest decreases in the South. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations’ sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in the South African region. The only region close to the United Nations’ target is the North African region. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. The West African region needs more extraordinary efforts to achieve the goals of the United Nations. Policies should ensure that all pregnant women have antenatal visits and give birth in a health facility staffed by specialized personnel.Publication Open Access Evaluating the efficacy of ChatGPT in navigating the spanish medical residency entrance examination (MIR): promising horizons for AI in clinical medicine(MDPI, 2023) Guillén Grima, Francisco; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Onambele, Luc; Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido; Montejo, Rocío; Aguinaga Ontoso, Enrique; Barach, Paul; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun ZientziakThe rapid progress in artificial intelligence, machine learning, and natural language processing has led to increasingly sophisticated large language models (LLMs) for use in healthcare. This study assesses the performance of two LLMs, the GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 models, in passing the MIR medical examination for access to medical specialist training in Spain. Our objectives included gauging the model’s overall performance, analyzing discrepancies across different medical specialties, discerning between theoretical and practical questions, estimating error proportions, and assessing the hypothetical severity of errors committed by a physician. Material and methods: We studied the 2022 Spanish MIR examination results after excluding those questions requiring image evaluations or having acknowledged errors. The remaining 182 questions were presented to the LLM GPT-4 and GPT-3.5 in Spanish and English. Logistic regression models analyzed the relationships between question length, sequence, and performance. We also analyzed the 23 questions with images, using GPT-4’s new image analysis capability. Results: GPT-4 outperformed GPT-3.5, scoring 86.81% in Spanish (p < 0.001). English translations had a slightly enhanced performance. GPT-4 scored 26.1% of the questions with images in English. The results were worse when the questions were in Spanish, 13.0%, although the differences were not statistically significant (p = 0.250). Among medical specialties, GPT-4 achieved a 100% correct response rate in several areas, and the Pharmacology, Critical Care, and Infectious Diseases specialties showed lower performance. The error analysis revealed that while a 13.2% error rate existed, the gravest categories, such as “error requiring intervention to sustain life” and “error resulting in death”, had a 0% rate. Conclusions: GPT-4 performs robustly on the Spanish MIR examination, with varying capabilities to discriminate knowledge across specialties. While the model’s high success rate is commendable, understanding the error severity is critical, especially when considering AI’s potential role in real-world medical practice and its implications for patient safety.Publication Open Access Schizophrenia and hospital admissions for cardiovascular events in a large population: the APNA study(MDPI, 2022) Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Brugos Larumbe, Antonio; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Ortuño, Felipe; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Forga, Lluís; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak(1) Background: patients with schizophrenia have higher mortality, with cardiovascular diseases being the first cause of mortality. This study aims to estimate the excess risk of hospital admission for cardiovascular events in schizophrenic patients, adjusting for comorbidity and risk factors. (2) Methods: the APNA study is a dynamic prospective cohort of all residents in Navarra, Spain. A total of 505,889 people over 18 years old were followed for five years. The endpoint was hospital admissions for a cardiovascular event. Direct Acyclic Graphs (DAG) and Cox regression were used. (3) Results: schizophrenic patients had a Hazard Ratio (HR) of 1.414 (95% CI 1.031–1.938) of hospital admission for a cardiovascular event after adjusting for age, sex, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, low income, obesity, antecedents of cardiovascular disease, and smoking. In non-adherent to antipsychotic treatment schizophrenia patients, the HR was 2.232 (95% CI 1.267–3.933). (4) Conclusions: patients with schizophrenia have a higher risk of hospital admission for cardiovascular events than persons with the same risk factors without schizophrenia. Primary care nursing interventions should monitor these patients and reduce cardiovascular risk factors.Publication Open Access Variability in the control of type 2 diabetes in primary care and its association with hospital admissions for vascular events. The APNA study(MDPI, 2021) Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Forga, Lluís; Brugos Larumbe, Antonio; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun ZientziakType 2 diabetes (T2D) is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity, mortality, and hospital admissions. This study aimed to analyze how the differences in delivered care (variability of glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) achieved targets) affect hospital admissions for cardiovascular events (CVEs) in T2D patients. Methods: We analyzed the electronic records in primary care health centers at Navarra (Spain) and hospital admission for CVEs. We followed 26,435 patients with T2D from 2012 to 2016. The variables collected were age, sex, health center, general practitioner practice (GPP), and income. The clinical variables were diagnosis of T2D, weight, height, body mass index (BMI), blood pressure (BP), HbA1c, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), smoking, and antecedents of CVEs. We calculated, in each GPP practice, the proportion of patients with HbA1c ≥ 9. A non-hierarchical K-means cluster analysis classified GPPs into two clusters according to the level of compliance with HbA1C ≥ 9% control indicators. We used logistic and Cox regressions. Results: T2D patients had a higher probability of admission for CVEs when they belonged to a GPP in the worst control cluster of HbA1C ≥ 9% (HR = 1.151; 95% CI, 1.032–1.284).Publication Open Access Trends, projections, and regional disparities of maternal mortality in Africa (1990-2030): an ARIMA forecasting approach(MDPI, 2023) Onambele, Luc; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido; Montejo, Rocío; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Aguinaga Ontoso, Enrique; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun ZientziakWith the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015–2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990–2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of −2.6% (95% CI −2.7; −2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 161 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 302 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa, averaging 182 per 100,000 births for the continent. Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, no region of Africa will likely reach the SDG target.Publication Open Access Effects of nutrition interventions on athletic performance in soccer players: a systematic review(MDPI, 2023) Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun ZientziakBackground: More than 270 million participants and 128,893 professional players play soccer. Although UEFA recommendations for nutrition in elite football exist, implementing these guidelines among professional and semiprofessional soccer players remains suboptimal, emphasizing the need for targeted and individualized nutritional strategies to improve adherence to established recommendations. Methods: We conducted a comprehensive search in PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and clinical trial registers. Inclusion criteria focused on professional or semiprofessional soccer players, nutrition or diet interventions, performance improvement outcomes, and randomized clinical trial study types. We assessed quality using the Risk of Bias 2 (RoB 2) tool. We identified 16 eligible articles involving 310 participants. No nutritional interventions during the recovery period effectively improved recovery. However, several performance-based interventions showed positive effects, such as tart cherry supplementation, raw pistachio nut kernels, bicarbonate and mineral ingestion, creatine supplementation, betaine consumption, symbiotic supplements, and a high-carbohydrate diet. These interventions influenced various aspects of soccer performance, including endurance, speed, agility, strength, power, explosiveness, and anaerobic capacity. Conclusions: Specific strategies, such as solutions with bicarbonate and minerals, high carbohydrate diets, and supplements like creatine, betaine, and tart cherry, can enhance the performance of professional soccer players. These targeted nutritional interventions may help optimize performance and provide the competitive edge required in professional soccer. We did not find any dietary interventions that could enhance recovery.Publication Open Access Being born in winter-spring and at around the time of an influenza pandemic are risk factors for the development of schizophrenia: the apna study in Navarre, Spain(MDPI, 2021) Álvarez-Mon, Miguel Ángel; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Pereira-Sánchez, Víctor; Onambele, Luc; Al-Rahamneh, Moad J.; Brugos Larumbe, Antonio; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ortuño, Felipe; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun ZientziakBackground: we analyzed the relationship between the prevalence of schizophrenia and the season of birth and gestation during a period of an influenza pandemic. Methods: cross-sectional analysis of a prospective population-based cohort of 470,942 adults. We fitted multivariant logistic regression models to determine whether the season of birth and birth in an influenza-pandemic year (1957, 1968, 1977) was associated with schizophrenia. Results: 2077 subjects had been diagnosed with schizophrenia. Logistic regression identified a significantly greater prevalence of schizophrenia in men than in women (OR = 1.516, CI 95% = 1.388–1.665); in those born in the winter or spring than in those born in the summer or autumn (OR = 1.112, CI 95% = 1.020–1.212); and in those born in a period of an influenza pandemic (OR = 1.335, CI 95% = 1.199–1.486). The increase in risk was also significant when each influenza pandemic year was analyzed separately. However, neither month of birth nor season of birth, when each of the four were studied individually, were associated with a statistically significant increase in that risk. Conclusions: the winter–spring period and the influenza pandemics are independent risk factors for developing schizophrenia. This study contradicts many previous studies and thus revitalizes a locked debate in understanding the neurodevelopmental hypothesis of this disorder.Publication Open Access Covid-19 impact on DTP vaccination trends in Africa: a joinpoint regression análisis(MDPI, 2023) Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Onambele, Luc; Aguinaga Ontoso, Enrique; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun ZientziakBackground: deaths due to vaccine-preventable diseases are one of the leading causes of death among African children. Vaccine coverage is an essential measure to decrease infant mortality. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the healthcare system and may have disrupted vaccine coverage. Methods: DTP third doses (DTP3) Vaccine Coverage was extracted from UNICEF databases from 2012 to 2021 (the last available date). Joinpoint regression was performed to detect the point where the trend changed. The annual percentage change (APC) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) was calculated for Africa and the regions. We compared DTP3 vaccination coverage in 2019–2021 in each country using the Chi-square test. Result: During the whole period, the vaccine coverage in Africa increased with an Annual Percent change of 1.2% (IC 95% 0.9–1.5): We detected one joinpoint in 2019. In 2019–2021, there was a decrease in DTP3 coverage with an APC of −3.5 (95% −6.0; −0,9). (p < 0.001). Vaccination rates decreased in many regions of Sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Eastern and Southern Africa. There were 26 countries (Angola, Cabo Verde, Comoros, Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Eswatini, The Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritania, Mauritius, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, and Zimbabwe) where the vaccine coverage during the two years decreased. There were 10 countries (Angola, Cabo Verde, Comoros, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Eswatini, The Gambia, Mozambique, Rwanda, Senegal, and Sudan) where the joinpoint regression detected a change in the trend. Conclusions. COVID-19 has disrupted vaccine coverage, decreasing it all over Africa.Publication Open Access Has COVID-19 affected DTP3 vaccination in the Americas?(MDPI, 2024) Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Aguinaga Ontoso, Enrique; Rayón Valpuesta, Esperanza; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun ZientziakBackground: In the Americas, deaths by diseases avoidable with vaccines are a significant contributor to child mortality. An essential means of reducing this is through broad vaccine coverage. The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a potential disruption to vaccine coverage due to its effects on the healthcare system. Objectives: this study aims to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on DTP3 vaccination coverage in the Americas, investigating trends from 2012 to 2022 to identify significant changes, regional disparities, and the overall effect of the pandemic on progress towards global immunization targets. Methods: This study used the coverage data for the third dose of the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine (DTP3) pulled from UNICEF databases spanning 2012 to 2022. We conducted a Joinpoint regression to identify points of significant trend changes. The annual percentage change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for America and its regions. We also used segmented regression analysis. Using the Chi-square test, we compared DTP3 vaccination coverage for each country between 2019 and 2022. Results: Overall, America saw a decrease in vaccine coverage during this period, with an APC of −1.4 (95% CI −1.8; −1.0). This trend varied across regions. In North America, the decrease was negligible (−0.1% APC). South America showed the steepest decrease, with an APC of −2.5%. Central America also declined, with an APC of −1.3%. Our findings suggest a concerning trend of declining DTP-vaccination rates in the Americas, exacerbated in certain regions, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The absolute decrease in vaccine coverage in the Americas was −4% between 2019 and 2022, with the most important drop being in Central America (−7%). However, six countries reported increased vaccination rates post-COVID-19, led by Brazil, with a 7% increase. Conversely, twenty-two countries registered a decline in DTP3 vaccine coverage, with the average decrease being −7.37%. This decline poses an important challenge to achieving the WHO’s target of 90% coverage for the third dose of DTP by 2030, as evidenced by the reduction in the number of countries meeting this target from 2019 to 2022. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted vaccine coverage in America, leading to a decrease, especially across Central America.