Person:
Guillén Grima, Francisco

Profile Picture

Email Address

person.page.identifierURI

https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/49219

Birth Date

Research Projects

Organizational Units

Job Title

Last Name

Guillén Grima

First Name

Francisco

person.page.departamento

Ciencias de la Salud

person.page.instituteName

ORCID

0000-0001-9749-8076

person.page.upna

352

Name

Filters

2017 - 201932020 - 20244
Reset filters

Settings

Subject: Trends ×

Search Results

Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Trends in hospital morbidity from Alzheimer's disease in the European Union, 2000-2014
    (SAGE, 2018) Niu, Hao; Álvarez Álvarez, Ismael; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    Background: Alzheimer’s disease (AD) has become a concerning public health issue. We aimed to analyse the trends of hospital morbidity from AD in the European Union (EU) in the period 2000-2014. Methods: Data from hospital discharges of men and women over 50 years old hospitalised from AD in the EU were extracted from Eurostat database. We tested for secular trends computing the annual percent change, and identifying significant changes in the linear slope of the trend. Results: Hospital morbidity from AD showed a 0.8% (95% confidence intervals -2.2, 0.6) slight declining trend in the EU. In men and women, we recorded a -0.5% and -1.0% decrease in hospital morbidity rates, respectively. Several countries showed changing trends during the study period. Conclusion: AD hospital morbidity has slightly declined in the entire EU in the past years. Eastern European countries showed steadily increasing trends, whereas in western and Mediterranean countries rates decreased or levelled off.
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Maternal mortality in Africa: regional trends (2000-2017)
    (MDPI, 2022) Onambele, Luc; Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Forjaz, Maria Joao; Yoseph, Amanuel; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Arnedo Pena, Alberto; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    Background: United Nations Sustainable Development Goals state that by 2030, the global maternal mortality rate (MMR) should be lower than 70 per 100,000 live births. MMR is still one of Africa’s leading causes of death among women. The leading causes of maternal mortality in Africa are hemorrhage and eclampsia. This research aims to study regional trends in maternal mortality (MM) in Africa. Methods: We extracted data for maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) databank from 2000 to 2017, 2017 being the last date available. Joinpoint regression was used to study the trends and estimate the annual percent change (APC). Results: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa over the study period by an average APC of −3.0% (95% CI −2.9; −3,2%). All regions showed significant downward trends, with the greatest decreases in the South. Only the North African region is close to the United Nations’ sustainable development goals for Maternal mortality. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. Conclusions: Maternal mortality has decreased in Africa, especially in the South African region. The only region close to the United Nations’ target is the North African region. The remaining Sub-Saharan African regions are still far from achieving the goals. The West African region needs more extraordinary efforts to achieve the goals of the United Nations. Policies should ensure that all pregnant women have antenatal visits and give birth in a health facility staffed by specialized personnel.
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Trends of mortality from Alzheimer's disease in the European Union, 1994-2013
    (Wiley, 2017) Niu, Hao; Álvarez Álvarez, Ismael; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Jamal Saad Al-Rahamneh, Moad; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    Background: In many countries, Alzheimer’s disease (AD) has gradually become a relevant disease in elderly populations. The aim of this study was to analyse trends of mortality caused by AD in the 28 member countries in the European Union (EU) over the last two decades. Methods: We extracted data for AD deaths for the period 1994-2013 in the EU from the Eurostat and World Health Organization database. Age-standardised mortality rates per 100,000 were computed. Joinpoint regression was used to analyse the trends and compute the annual percent change (APC) in the EU as a whole and by country. Analyses by gender and by European regions were conducted. Results: Throughout the study period, mortality from AD has risen in the EU. Most of the countries showed upward trends, with the sharpest increases in Slovakia, Lithuania and Romania. In men and women, we recorded a 4.7% and 6.0% statistically significant increase in mortality rates in the whole EU, respectively. Several countries showed changing trends during the study period. According to the regional analysis, Northern and Eastern countries showed the steepest increases, while in the latter years in Western countries mortality has declined. Conclusions: Our findings provide evidence that AD mortality has increased in the EU, especially in Eastern and Northern European countries and in the female population. Our results could be a reference for the development of primary prevention policies.
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Trends, projections, and regional disparities of maternal mortality in Africa (1990-2030): an ARIMA forecasting approach
    (MDPI, 2023) Onambele, Luc; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Ortega-Leon, Wilfrido; Montejo, Rocío; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Aguinaga Ontoso, Enrique; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015–2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990–2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of −2.6% (95% CI −2.7; −2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 161 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 302 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa, averaging 182 per 100,000 births for the continent. Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, no region of Africa will likely reach the SDG target.
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Trends in mortality from stroke in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1979-2015
    (Ubiquity Press, 2022) Soto Venegas, Álvaro; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Morales Illanes, Gladys; Muñoz, Sergio; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Vanegas, Jairo; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    Background: stroke is the second largest single cause of death and disability in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). There have been large overall declines in stroke mortality rates in most LAC countries in recent decades. Objective: to analyze trends in mortality caused by stroke in LAC countries in the period 1979-2015. Methods: we extracted data for age-standardized stroke mortality rates per 100,000 in LAC for the period 1979-2015 from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trends and compute the annual percent change (APC) in LAC as a whole and by country. Analyses were conducted by gender, region and World Bank income classification. Results: mortality from stroke has decreased in LAC over the study period by an average APC of -1.9%. Most countries showed significant downward trends, with the sharpest decreases in Chile, Colombia and Uruguay. We recorded statistically significant decreases of -1.4% and -2.4% in mortality rates in men and women, respectively, in the whole LAC. Southern and high-income countries showed the steepest decreases. Conclusions: stroke mortality has decreased in LAC, in both sexes, especially in southern and high-income countries. Our results could serve as a reference for the development of primary prevention and acute management of stroke policies focused on countries with higher mortality.
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Infant mortality in the European Union: a time trend analysis of the 1994-2015 period
    (Elsevier España, 2019) Onambele, Luc; San Martín Rodríguez, Leticia; Niu, Hao; Álvarez Álvarez, Ismael; Arnedo Pena, Alberto; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    Introducción: La mortalidad infantil es un indicador de la salud infantil y una variable explicativa del desarrollo socioeconómico. Nuestro objetivo fue examinar los cambios y tendencias de la mortalidad infantil en la Unión Europea (UE) y sus 28 países miembros en el período 1994-2015. Métodos: Se recopilaron datos de muertes de niños menores de un año entre 1994 y 2015 de la base de datos Eurostat. Estudiamos las tendencias en la UE, por países y regiones, utilizando elanálisis de regresión joinpoint. Se condujeron análisis adicionales para estudiar las tendencias de mortalidad neonatal y neonatal precoz. Resultados: La mortalidad infantil en la UE ha disminuido significativamente de 8.3 a 3.6 por 1.000 (porcentaje de cambio anual = −3.8%, intervalos de confianza del 95% −4.1; −3.6). Las tasas de mortalidad más altas se registraron en Rumanía y Bulgaria, y las tasas más bajas en países escandinavos (Finlandia, Suecia). Se encontraron tendencias descendentes significativas en los países de la UE, más pronunciadas en los países bálticos exsoviéticos y países de Europa oriental, mientras que los países de Europa occidental mostraron los descensos menos pronunciados. La mortalidad infantil ha aumentado significativamente en Grecia en los últimos años,mientras que en el Reino Unido e Irlanda las tasas se han estabilizado. Conclusiones: La mortalidad infantil ha disminuido en la UE y sus países en las últimas décadas, más pronunciadamente en los países de Europa oriental y los países bálticos exsoviéticos, mientras que en varios países de Europa occidental las tasas aumentaron o se han estabilizado enlos últimos años.
  • Thumbnail Image
    PublicationOpen Access
    Has COVID-19 affected DTP3 vaccination in the Americas?
    (MDPI, 2024) Aguinaga Ontoso, Inés; Guillén Aguinaga, Sara; Guillén Aguinaga, Laura; Alas Brun, Rosa María; Aguinaga Ontoso, Enrique; Rayón Valpuesta, Esperanza; Guillén Grima, Francisco; Ciencias de la Salud; Osasun Zientziak
    Background: In the Americas, deaths by diseases avoidable with vaccines are a significant contributor to child mortality. An essential means of reducing this is through broad vaccine coverage. The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a potential disruption to vaccine coverage due to its effects on the healthcare system. Objectives: this study aims to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on DTP3 vaccination coverage in the Americas, investigating trends from 2012 to 2022 to identify significant changes, regional disparities, and the overall effect of the pandemic on progress towards global immunization targets. Methods: This study used the coverage data for the third dose of the diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis vaccine (DTP3) pulled from UNICEF databases spanning 2012 to 2022. We conducted a Joinpoint regression to identify points of significant trend changes. The annual percentage change (APC) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for America and its regions. We also used segmented regression analysis. Using the Chi-square test, we compared DTP3 vaccination coverage for each country between 2019 and 2022. Results: Overall, America saw a decrease in vaccine coverage during this period, with an APC of −1.4 (95% CI −1.8; −1.0). This trend varied across regions. In North America, the decrease was negligible (−0.1% APC). South America showed the steepest decrease, with an APC of −2.5%. Central America also declined, with an APC of −1.3%. Our findings suggest a concerning trend of declining DTP-vaccination rates in the Americas, exacerbated in certain regions, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The absolute decrease in vaccine coverage in the Americas was −4% between 2019 and 2022, with the most important drop being in Central America (−7%). However, six countries reported increased vaccination rates post-COVID-19, led by Brazil, with a 7% increase. Conversely, twenty-two countries registered a decline in DTP3 vaccine coverage, with the average decrease being −7.37%. This decline poses an important challenge to achieving the WHO’s target of 90% coverage for the third dose of DTP by 2030, as evidenced by the reduction in the number of countries meeting this target from 2019 to 2022. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted vaccine coverage in America, leading to a decrease, especially across Central America.