Demonstrating correspondence between decision-support models and dynamics of real-world environmental systems

Huffaker, Ray; Muñoz Carpena, Rafael; Campo-Bescós, Miguel; Southworth, Jane

Demonstrating correspondence between decision-support models and dynamics of real-world environmental systems

dc.contributor.author	Huffaker, Ray
dc.contributor.author	Muñoz Carpena, Rafael
dc.contributor.author	Campo-Bescós, Miguel
dc.contributor.author	Southworth, Jane
dc.contributor.department	Proyectos e Ingeniería Rural	es_ES
dc.contributor.department	Landa Ingeniaritza eta Proiektuak	eu
dc.date.accessioned	2019-02-25T15:50:39Z
dc.date.available	2019-02-25T15:50:39Z
dc.date.issued	2016
dc.description.abstract	There are increasing calls to audit decision-support models used for environmental policy to ensure that they correspond with the reality facing policy makers. Modelers can establish correspondence by providing empirical evidence of real-world behavior that their models skillfully simulate. Since real-world behavior—especially in environmental systems—is often complex, credibly modeling underlying dynamics is essential. We present a pre-modeling diagnostic framework based on Nonlinear Time Series (NLTS) methods for reconstructing real-world environmental dynamics from observed data. The framework is illustrated with a case study of saltwater intrusion into coastal wetlands in Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. We propose that environmental modelers test for systematic dynamic behavior in observed data before resorting to conventional stochastic exploratory approaches unable to detect this valuable information. Reconstructed data dynamics can be used, along with other expert information, as a rigorous benchmark to guide specification and testing of environmental decision-support models corresponding with real-world behavior.	en
dc.description.sponsorship	RH acknowledges support from NIFA (FLA-ABE-005414), RMC acknowledges support from the UF Water Institute Faculty Fellowship.	en
dc.format.extent	42 p.
dc.format.mimetype	application/pdf	en
dc.format.mimetype	application/zip	en
dc.identifier.doi	10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.024
dc.identifier.issn	1364-8152
dc.identifier.uri	https://academica-e.unavarra.es/handle/2454/32412
dc.language.iso	eng	en
dc.publisher	Elsevier	en
dc.relation.ispartof	Environmental Modelling & Software, 83 (2016) 74-87	en
dc.relation.publisherversion	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.04.024
dc.rights	© 2016 Elsevier Ltd. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0	en
dc.rights.accessRights	info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess
dc.rights.uri	https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
dc.subject	Model evaluation	en
dc.subject	Nonlinear dynamics	en
dc.subject	Phase space reconstruction	en
dc.subject	Extreme value statistics	en
dc.title	Demonstrating correspondence between decision-support models and dynamics of real-world environmental systems	en
dc.type	info:eu-repo/semantics/article
dc.type.version	info:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersion
dspace.entity.type	Publication
relation.isAuthorOfPublication	152af0c2-c115-4074-9715-fdf5f8fa6837
relation.isAuthorOfPublication	e9ca0d9f-24bc-4ce1-871f-81ce4e86b5bd
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery	152af0c2-c115-4074-9715-fdf5f8fa6837