Predicting grower choices in a regulated environment

The analysis of farmers’ decision making process in the framework of agricultural policy is particularly complex as they take action within a structure of interacting opportunities, preferences, benefits and social factors which ultimately account for their behavior. This paper will study viticulturists’ behaviour vis-à-vis this scenario. Their decisions in the face of different possible alternatives are analysed using a multinomial logit model and a sample of 74,502 plots in Castilla-La Mancha (Spain). The conclusion is that viticulturists from this region are more prone to maintaining the status quo in their plots due to the current public support security issues, uncertain scenarios and their natural risk aversion.