The great moderation of inflation: a structural analysis of recent U.S. monetary business cycles

Abstract

U.S. inflation has experienced a great moderation in the last two decades. This paper examines the factors behind this and other stylized facts, such as the weaker correlation of inflation and nominal interest rate (Gibson paradox). Our findings point at lower exogenous variability of supply-side shocks and, to a lower extent, structural changes in money demand, monetary policy, and firms’ sticky pricing behavior as the main driving forces of the changes observed in recent U.S. business cycles.