Artículos de revista DGE - EKS Aldizkari artikuluak
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Browsing Artículos de revista DGE - EKS Aldizkari artikuluak by Author "Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel"
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Publication Embargo Analyst responses to changes in credit risk(Wiley, 2025-02-03) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEDo analysts adjust their recommendations when a company's credit risk changes? Using an extensive sample of 300,145 observations, covering 3722 US firms from 2000 to 2021, we find that analysts revise their recommendations when a firm's credit risk decreases but not when it increases. This result is consistent with analysts¿ optimism bias, as previously identified in the literature. However, we further find that this optimism bias disappears for firms with low information asymmetry or good informativeness. The fact that analysts for these firms have less cognitive bias and greater pressure to make accurate recommendations may explain this result. Our research highlights that analyst disclosures should be treated with caution, especially in firms with poor informational characteristics. A proper understanding of analyst recommendations is critical for the decision-making processes of investors and companies and calls for better regulations.Publication Open Access Behavioral biases never walk alone: an empirical analysis of the effect of overconfidence on probabilities(SAGE, 2014) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen KudeaketaThis paper presents evidence of the impact of overconfidence bias in asset prices drawn from a study based on data from tennis betting exchanges. A series of betting strategies in tournaments with a clear-cut favourite are shown to yield significant economic returns. The impact of overconfidence bias on betting odds increases with trading volume, media coverage, and levels of disagreement between overconfident and Cumulative Prospect Theory bettors. Just as in traditional financial markets, arbitrage limits are shown to be a necessary condition for the impact of behavioural biases on prices.Publication Open Access Can tax regulations moderate revenue diversification and reduce financial distress in nonprofit organizations?(Wiley, 2022) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; López Arceiz, Francisco José; Zabaleta Arregui, Idoia; Economía; EkonomiaAs a result of policies to reduce public deficit, nonprofit organizations have been forced to turn to charitable donations in order to diversify their revenue structure and thus reduce their levels of financial distress. Public administrations have supported this process through tax mechanisms designed to provide a legal framework that will encourage private philanthropy. Our aim is to analyse the role of nonprofit tax regulations in moderating the influence of revenue diversification on insolvency risk. To this end, we drew a sample of 406 nonprofit organizations located in Aragon and Navarre, two European regions with different tax regulations, for the period 2008-2018. Our results reveal that some tax regime requirements, such as the organizational purpose, minimum initial endowment, engagement in commercial activity, and accountability and monitoring standards, have a positive impact on revenue diversification and the reduction of financial distress and vulnerability. However, we also detect differences between regions which suggest that tax harmonization for nonprofit organizations remains a challenge.Publication Open Access Dimensión económica y dimensión social de la empresa social: ¿cómo influye la concreción de los fines fundacionales?(Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; González Álvarez, Karen; Zabaleta Arregui, Idoia; Economía; Ekonomia; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBELas empresas sociales fijan como objetivo primordial la consecución de impactos sociales garantizando al mismo tiempo la consecución de beneficios económicos y una adecuada gestión. Este enfoque tridimensional (económico, social y de gestión) puede ser adoptado por distintos tipos de organización. En concreto, las fundaciones pueden ser consideradas como empresas sociales en la medida en que desarrollen estas tres dimensiones. Sin embargo, la definición de un objetivo social podría afectar a la dimensión económica. La posibilidad de que emerjan tensiones entre la dimensión económica y social de estas organizaciones podría estar relacionada con la forma de definir el fin fundacional. No obstante, no existe hasta la fecha evidencia empírica que soporte esta afirmación. El objetivo de este estudio es examinar la relación que existe entre la concreción del fin fundacional, como expresión de la dimensión social de estas organizaciones, y el impacto en su viabilidad económica. Para ello, se cuenta con una muestra compuesta por fundaciones españolas ubicadas en dos regiones, Aragón y Navarra, que poseen regulaciones diferentes que afectan a la concreción del fin fundacional o misión social. Mediante el análisis de contenido, se evidencian notables diferencias en las fundaciones ubicadas en ambas regiones cuando se analiza la definición del fin fundacional y la dimensión económica.Publication Open Access Does default probability matter in Latin American emerging markets?(Taylor & Francis, 2013) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen KudeaketaWe analyse the impact of default probability in four leading Latin American stock markets (Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Mexico). We find no positive default risk premium except in the case of Brazil, and in fact find a negative risk premium for Argentina and Mexico. The latter effect tends to fade when the analysis accounts for size and BTM market variables. Although we find no size effect in any of the markets considered, the BTM effect is very strong in all of them, and our results reveal a consistent relationship, analogous to that found in more developed markets, between default probability and the size and book-to-market variables.Publication Open Access Does family ownership always reduce default risk?(Wiley, 2021) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de EmpresasThis paper analyses the effect of family ownership on the outcome of the firm’s risk‐taking activities, measured by the company’s default risk. We show that family ownership reduces the probability of default, which is proxied by the Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) model. Our study goes further than the initial approach by taking into account certain factors conditioning the aforementioned relationship. We find that the expected negative relationship between family ownership and default risk is modified when there is a significant participation of institutional investors, whose positive moderating influence intensifies if they are stable and long‐term oriented and/or during adverse financial circumstances.Publication Open Access The effect of a switch of management company on pension plan fees(Routledge, 2021) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de EmpresasThe impact of a switch of management company on pension plan fees is analysed by comparing the effects on employer-sponsored versus individual defined-contribution private pension plans in Spain. This framework is ideal because the two types differ significantly both in plan governance structure and consequently in the degree of bargaining power held by the decision-maker. In addition, intense bank restructuring, which has greatly modified the Spanish pension plan map, provides an interesting analytical context for the identification of causal links, because it is a scenario that features shocks exogenous to the relationship under analysis. The results show that a switch of management company significantly reduces management fees for employer-sponsored plans when the management change is not due to the bank restructuring process, on the contrary a switch of management company increases fees for individual pension plans.Publication Open Access Female CEOs and default risk in listed family firms(Emerald, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Garcés Galdeano, Lucía; Martínez García, Beatriz; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEPurpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of female CEO board members on listed family firms’ corporate default risk, integrating upper echelons theory with social role theory and the socio-emotional wealth approach and proxying default risk with the Black–Scholes–Merton model. It also searches for possible differences attributable to the type of female CEO. Design/methodology/approach: This study is applied to a longitudinal sample of listed US family firms. After a preliminary analysis of the main descriptive, several models are estimated with the system GMM estimator, which is a panel data estimator. The models are dynamic, including the lagged value of the dependent variable. In addition, the model estimation is repeated with a different measure of default risk, for robustness. Findings: This research findings show that default risk diminishes in the presence of a female CEO, whose reduction is even greater if she is a family member. The results are proven to be robust to the measure for proxying default risk. Originality/value: This study primarily contributes to the existing literature by exploring a possible link between female CEOs, particularly those with a family affiliation, and a lower level of default risk in family firms. It also provides practical implications for policymakers, who would be advised to promote conditions enabling women to contribute towards family business viability. In addition, this study offers encouragement for family business owners to value the potential of their female family members in company succession processes.Publication Open Access Game, set and match: the favorite long-shot bias in tennis betting exchanges(Taylor & Francis, 2016) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen KudeaketaWe test for the existence of Favorite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in tennis betting exchanges. Despite these being order-driven markets, with no direct participation from bookmakers, we have found very similar results to those obtained by Lahvička (2014) for bookmakers’ betting markets: the bias is stronger in matches between lower ranked players, in later round matches and in high profile tournaments. This suggests that bookmakers’ adjustments to respond to informed betting are not the main driver of FLB. The varying magnitude of the bias across different types of event in the main market also weakens arguments linking FLB to gamblers’ risk preferences, and suggests the need to consider the microstructure features of the market together with the cognitive biases highlighted in the behavioral finance literature.Publication Open Access Is default risk the hidden factor in momentum returns? Some empirical results(Wiley, 2014) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen KudeaketaThis paper analyzes the role of default risk in the momentum effect focusing on data from four developed European stock markets (France, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom). Using a market-based measure of default risk, we show that it is not the hidden factor behind this effect. While the loser portfolio is characterized by high default risk, small size, high BTM and illiquidity, characterization of the winner portfolio is somewhat more complex. Given that the momentum strategy is the return differential between the winners and the losers, factors such as the stock market cycle or the evolution of momentum portfolios against their reference point make momentum profits difficult to forecast.Publication Open Access Measuring credit risk in family firms(SAGE, 2020) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de EmpresasThis article attempts to identify the default risk measure which best reflects the idiosyncratic context of public family firms. Seven accounting- and market-based measures are compared over a sample of 981 US family and non-family firms for the period 2000–2016. The results show that the Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) measure gives the best fit in both types of firm. However, all the accounting-based measures, especially Altman’s Z-score, come closest to the market-based measures when used to assess the credit risk of family firms. The two types of measures also coincide more closely in their default risk orderings of family than of non-family firms. Useful practical implications can be drawn from these findings, which show that accounting-based measures can be used reliably in the absence of market data for family firms with similar characteristics to those in our sample.Publication Open Access Nota editorial - Número especial "Decisiones financieras empresariales en países emergentes"(Universidad Nacional de Colombia, 2024-10-01) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Ayres Barreira de Campos Barros, Lucas; Melgarejo, Zuray; Navarro Pérez, Paula Andrea; Vera-Colina, Mary Analí; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen KudeaketaComprender cómo se desenvuelven las empresas en entornos marcados por una mayor volatilidad económica, un acceso limitado al capital y complejos retos institucionales es crucial para mejorar los marcos de toma de decisiones. Por esta razón, el número especial "Decisiones financieras empresariales en países emergentes" pretende ofrecer nuevas perspectivas que puedan orientar futuras investigaciones y contribuir al desarrollo de estrategias financieras adaptadas a las necesidades de las empresas de estos mercados. De este modo, aborda temas relacionados con la toma de decisiones financieras empresariales, tanto desde una visión tradicional como desde perspectivas recientes e innovadoras, en el contexto de países emergentes, con alto potencial, y para los que es esencial aportar todo el conocimiento necesario en la marcha hacia el desarrollo.Publication Open Access Performance of default-risk measures: the sample matters(Elsevier, 2020) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; González Urteaga, Ana; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Sánchez Alegría, Santiago; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua, PI017-PI039 CORRALThis paper examines the predictive power of the main default-risk measures used by both academics and practitioners, including accounting measures, market-price-based measures and the credit rating. Given that some measures are unavailable for some firm types, pair wise comparisons are made between the various measures, using same-size samples in every case. The results show the superiority of market-based measures, although their accuracy depends on the prediction horizon and the type of default events considered. Furthermore, examination shows that the effect of within-sample firm characteristics varies across measures. The overall finding is of poorer goodness of fit for accurate default prediction in samples characterised by high book-to-market ratios and/or high asset intangibility, both of which suggest pricing difficulty. In the case of large-firm samples, goodness of fit is in general negatively related to size, possibly because of the 'too-big-to-fail' effect.Publication Open Access Pricing levered warrants with dilution using observable variables(Taylor & Francis, 2013) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Navas, Javier F.; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen KudeaketaWe propose a valuation framework for pricing European call warrants on the issuer's own stock that allows for debt in the issuer firm. In contrast to other works which also price warrants with dilution issued by levered firms, ours uses only observable variables. Thus, we extend the models of both Crouhy and Galai (1994) and Ukhov (2004). We provide numerical examples to study some implementation issues and to compare the model with existing ones.Publication Open Access The role of female directors in family firms' annual report's readability(Emerald, 2024) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Garcés Galdeano, Lucía; Martínez García, Beatriz; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEPurpose: this paper investigates the impact of board gender diversity on the readability of the annual reports of family-controlled public companies. Design/methodology/approach: grounded in the premises of the restricted and extended views of the socioemotional wealth (SEW) approach and executive power theory, this paper explores the ways in which family-affiliated female directors influence report readability in a sample of 133 publicly traded US companies listed in the Fortune 1,000. We use the system GMM estimator, which deals with two key sources of endogeneity by controlling first for reverse causality, using the lags of the endogenous variables as instruments, and then for omitted variables, capturing the individual effect. Findings: our analysis confirms that the significant enhancement in annual report readability is associated with the presence of female family directors, particularly those who are insiders within the company. In contrast, non-family female directors and family outsider directors appear to have a negative impact on annual report readability. Originality/value: while scholars have increasingly focused on variations in annual report readability among family firms, the contribution of female directors to this phenomenon has received minimal attention. In our study, we integrate the theories of restricted and extended SEW perspectives with the theory of women's executive power within the board. This integration is essential for considering two critical factors: firstly, the primacy of their SEW objectives, and, secondly, their legitimacy within the board.Publication Open Access The role of investor type in the fee structures of pension plans(Springer, 2016) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen KudeaketaWe examine the role of the investor type in the fee structure of pension plans. Our examination uses a data set of employer-sponsored and individual private pension funds in Spain. We find different determinants of the fees between these two pension plans. We find evidence of market penetration strategies in individual plans but none in employer-sponsored plans. In these plans, the fees are negatively related to their financial groups’ market share, whereas in individual plans this relation is negative for management fees but positive for custodian fees. Further, except in the case of custodian fees in individual plans, we find that all fees diminish when the custodian and management firms belong to different financial groups.Publication Open Access Sovereign debt holdings and banks’ credit risk: evidence from the Eurozone(Elsevier, 2021) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Mansilla Fernández, José Manuel; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de EmpresasThis paper investigates the direct effect of sovereign debt holding on banks’ credit risk. Using individual Eurozone listed banks’ information, we find that holding sovereign debt improves the level of banks’ credit risk, but this effect is reversed when the credit risk associated with such debt is taken into account. For this purpose, we consider three alternative sovereign debt holding proxies and two types of banks’ credit-risk measures, both forward- and backward-looking. We find that the transmission of credit risk from sovereign debt holdings to banks’ credit risk is only captured when forward-looking credit-risk measures, based on market data, are used.Publication Open Access Suspense and surprise: the role of bookmakers' spreads(SAGE, 2024-10-16) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Bonilla Acosta, Harold; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEUncertainty in a competition's final result can affect the event's demand via suspenseand surprise. Based on a sample of more than 50,000 professional tennis matches, thispaper shows how information from bookmaker prices, implied probabilities, and pricespreads contain relevant information that explains the uncertainty in the final results of the matches. There is a negative relation between the implied probability for the favorite and the different measures of match result uncertainty proposed and a positive rela-tionship between the spread and these measures when the bookmaker sets prices based on information. This second relation disappears when the bookmaker setsprices based on betting volumes. The results have potential implications both for organizers in scheduling matches with higher levels of uncertainty and for punters in settingstrategies that predict the exact result of a match.Publication Open Access Women in power with power: the influence of meaningful board representation on default risk(Elsevier, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Martínez García, Beatriz; Poletti Hughes, Jannine; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa, Research Grant for Young Researchers 2023This paper examines the relationship between the presence of female board members and firms' corporate default risk. We find an inverted “U-shaped” relationship for a sample of 917 firms in 19 emerging markets for the period 2005–2019. We also show that, consistent with critical mass theory, boards need to have three or more female directors to significantly reduce default risk. Furthermore, having female directors with an independent role on the board in countries with less familial dominance, or having female directors with a leadership position, significantly reduces default risk. Finally, we find a positive effect of the interaction between a country's gender inequality and board gender diversity on default risk.