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Publication Embargo Analyst responses to changes in credit risk(Wiley, 2025-02-03) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEDo analysts adjust their recommendations when a company's credit risk changes? Using an extensive sample of 300,145 observations, covering 3722 US firms from 2000 to 2021, we find that analysts revise their recommendations when a firm's credit risk decreases but not when it increases. This result is consistent with analysts¿ optimism bias, as previously identified in the literature. However, we further find that this optimism bias disappears for firms with low information asymmetry or good informativeness. The fact that analysts for these firms have less cognitive bias and greater pressure to make accurate recommendations may explain this result. Our research highlights that analyst disclosures should be treated with caution, especially in firms with poor informational characteristics. A proper understanding of analyst recommendations is critical for the decision-making processes of investors and companies and calls for better regulations.Publication Open Access Bad company. The indirect effect of differences in corporate governance in the pension plan industry(Elsevier, 2017) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEThis paper analyses the role played by pension plan governance structure and how it impacts on plan fees and plan performance. The results clearly show that fees decrease significantly and performance improves when pension plan governance structures permit full alignment of interests and allow greater capacity for the decision-makers to monitor and discipline the managers. It is also observed that companies managing both employee and individual funds, tend to exploit differences in the internal corporate governance mechanisms of each type of plan in order to nurture employer-sponsored plans at the expense of individual plans. These results suggest that internal corporate governance mechanisms allowing closer alignment with the interests of participants would be preferable to focusing exclusively on setting the minimum proportion of independent directors.Publication Open Access Dimensión económica y dimensión social de la empresa social: ¿cómo influye la concreción de los fines fundacionales?(Universidad Complutense de Madrid, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; González Álvarez, Karen; Zabaleta Arregui, Idoia; Economía; Ekonomia; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBELas empresas sociales fijan como objetivo primordial la consecución de impactos sociales garantizando al mismo tiempo la consecución de beneficios económicos y una adecuada gestión. Este enfoque tridimensional (económico, social y de gestión) puede ser adoptado por distintos tipos de organización. En concreto, las fundaciones pueden ser consideradas como empresas sociales en la medida en que desarrollen estas tres dimensiones. Sin embargo, la definición de un objetivo social podría afectar a la dimensión económica. La posibilidad de que emerjan tensiones entre la dimensión económica y social de estas organizaciones podría estar relacionada con la forma de definir el fin fundacional. No obstante, no existe hasta la fecha evidencia empírica que soporte esta afirmación. El objetivo de este estudio es examinar la relación que existe entre la concreción del fin fundacional, como expresión de la dimensión social de estas organizaciones, y el impacto en su viabilidad económica. Para ello, se cuenta con una muestra compuesta por fundaciones españolas ubicadas en dos regiones, Aragón y Navarra, que poseen regulaciones diferentes que afectan a la concreción del fin fundacional o misión social. Mediante el análisis de contenido, se evidencian notables diferencias en las fundaciones ubicadas en ambas regiones cuando se analiza la definición del fin fundacional y la dimensión económica.Publication Open Access Does family ownership always reduce default risk?(Wiley, 2021) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de EmpresasThis paper analyses the effect of family ownership on the outcome of the firm’s risk‐taking activities, measured by the company’s default risk. We show that family ownership reduces the probability of default, which is proxied by the Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) model. Our study goes further than the initial approach by taking into account certain factors conditioning the aforementioned relationship. We find that the expected negative relationship between family ownership and default risk is modified when there is a significant participation of institutional investors, whose positive moderating influence intensifies if they are stable and long‐term oriented and/or during adverse financial circumstances.Publication Open Access Duty calls: prediction of failure in reorganization processes(Emerald, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Bonilla Acosta, Harold; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEPurpose – Using data from business reorganization processes under Act 1116 of 2006 in Colombia during the period 2008 to 2018, a model for predicting the success of these processes is proposed. The paper aims to validate the model in two different periods. The first one, in 2019, characterized by stability, and the second one, in 2020, characterized by the uncertainty generated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Design/methodology/approach – A set of five financial variables comprising indebtedness, profitability and solvency proxies, firm age, macroeconomic conditions, and industry and regional dummies are used as independent variables in a logit model to predict the failure of reorganization processes. In addition, an out-ofsample analysis is carried out for the 2019 and 2020 periods. Findings – The results show a high predictive power of the estimated model. Even the results of the out-ofsample analysis are satisfactory during the unstable pandemic period. However, industry and regional effects add no predictive power for 2020, probably due to subsidies for economic activity and the relaxation of insolvency legislation in Colombia during that year. Originality/value – In a context of global reform in insolvency laws, the consistent predictive ability shown by the model, even during periods of uncertainty, can guide regulatory changes to ensure the survival of companies entering into reorganization processes, and reduce the observed high failure rate.Publication Open Access The effect of a switch of management company on pension plan fees(Routledge, 2021) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de EmpresasThe impact of a switch of management company on pension plan fees is analysed by comparing the effects on employer-sponsored versus individual defined-contribution private pension plans in Spain. This framework is ideal because the two types differ significantly both in plan governance structure and consequently in the degree of bargaining power held by the decision-maker. In addition, intense bank restructuring, which has greatly modified the Spanish pension plan map, provides an interesting analytical context for the identification of causal links, because it is a scenario that features shocks exogenous to the relationship under analysis. The results show that a switch of management company significantly reduces management fees for employer-sponsored plans when the management change is not due to the bank restructuring process, on the contrary a switch of management company increases fees for individual pension plans.Publication Open Access Female CEOs and default risk in listed family firms(Emerald, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Garcés Galdeano, Lucía; Martínez García, Beatriz; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEPurpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of female CEO board members on listed family firms’ corporate default risk, integrating upper echelons theory with social role theory and the socio-emotional wealth approach and proxying default risk with the Black–Scholes–Merton model. It also searches for possible differences attributable to the type of female CEO. Design/methodology/approach: This study is applied to a longitudinal sample of listed US family firms. After a preliminary analysis of the main descriptive, several models are estimated with the system GMM estimator, which is a panel data estimator. The models are dynamic, including the lagged value of the dependent variable. In addition, the model estimation is repeated with a different measure of default risk, for robustness. Findings: This research findings show that default risk diminishes in the presence of a female CEO, whose reduction is even greater if she is a family member. The results are proven to be robust to the measure for proxying default risk. Originality/value: This study primarily contributes to the existing literature by exploring a possible link between female CEOs, particularly those with a family affiliation, and a lower level of default risk in family firms. It also provides practical implications for policymakers, who would be advised to promote conditions enabling women to contribute towards family business viability. In addition, this study offers encouragement for family business owners to value the potential of their female family members in company succession processes.Publication Open Access Hidden power of trading activity: the FLB in tennis betting exchanges(SAGE Publications, 2017) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEThis paper examines the impact of trading activity on the Favourite-Longshot Bias (FLB) in tennis Betting Exchanges, using direct measures such as betting volume, average bet and standard deviation of the odds. According to predictions based on Disagreement Models, odds mispricing is positively associated with trading volume but negatively associated with the presence of institutional bettors. The FLB is also positively related to the degree of uncertainty in the market. The existence of two simultaneous markets (a “main” and an “alternative” market) in this specific sports-betting environment has enabled us to observe that the relative amount of attention given to the favourite versus that given to the long shot is positively associated with the FLB. Finally, information is more rapidly incorporated into the odds in the market that receives more attention from bettors, an effect that is intensified by the arbitrage and hedging that occurs between the two markets.Publication Open Access Lagged accuracy in credit-risk measures(Elsevier, 2022) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; González Urteaga, Ana; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Sánchez Alegría, Santiago; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEThis paper analyzes the magnitude (accuracy) and length (time) of the lag in the incorporation of new information in different measures of credit risk. The results, for US firms, show a lag for Altman’s Z accounting measure and credit rating. In contrast, market-based credit-risk measures such as CDSs and the Black-Scholes-Merton model show no lag. This paper also analyzes the determinants of the lags found showing the importance of the informativeness of CDSs in reducing the lag for all types of default events, and a negative relationship between accounting manipulation and the lag of Altman’s Z for severe default events.Publication Open Access Measuring credit risk in family firms(SAGE, 2020) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Martínez García, Beatriz; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de EmpresasThis article attempts to identify the default risk measure which best reflects the idiosyncratic context of public family firms. Seven accounting- and market-based measures are compared over a sample of 981 US family and non-family firms for the period 2000–2016. The results show that the Black–Scholes–Merton (BSM) measure gives the best fit in both types of firm. However, all the accounting-based measures, especially Altman’s Z-score, come closest to the market-based measures when used to assess the credit risk of family firms. The two types of measures also coincide more closely in their default risk orderings of family than of non-family firms. Useful practical implications can be drawn from these findings, which show that accounting-based measures can be used reliably in the absence of market data for family firms with similar characteristics to those in our sample.Publication Open Access Performance of default-risk measures: the sample matters(Elsevier, 2020) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; González Urteaga, Ana; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Sánchez Alegría, Santiago; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de Empresas; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua, PI017-PI039 CORRALThis paper examines the predictive power of the main default-risk measures used by both academics and practitioners, including accounting measures, market-price-based measures and the credit rating. Given that some measures are unavailable for some firm types, pair wise comparisons are made between the various measures, using same-size samples in every case. The results show the superiority of market-based measures, although their accuracy depends on the prediction horizon and the type of default events considered. Furthermore, examination shows that the effect of within-sample firm characteristics varies across measures. The overall finding is of poorer goodness of fit for accurate default prediction in samples characterised by high book-to-market ratios and/or high asset intangibility, both of which suggest pricing difficulty. In the case of large-firm samples, goodness of fit is in general negatively related to size, possibly because of the 'too-big-to-fail' effect.Publication Open Access Prediction of failure in reorganization agreements under Colombia's Corporate Insolvency Act(Emerald, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Bonilla Acosta, Harold; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEPurpose – The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the impact of the implementation of Colombian Corporate Insolvency Act 1116 of 2006 in the period 2008–2018 and to assess the relevance of a broad set of financial predictors, as well as variables related to the economic context or the characteristics of the process itself, in explaining the failure of reorganization processes. Design/methodology/approach – Both logit and probit models are estimated, starting from a large number of variables proposed in the literature which are then narrowed down to a final selection based on their individual significance and machine learning. Findings – The results show the prevalence of a limited number of financial variables related to equity, indebtedness, profits and liquidity as predictors of the failure of reorganization processes. The use of financial information from the year prior to the completion of the reorganization improves predictive accuracy and reliability. The debt-to-equity indicator provides no significant explanatory power, while voluntary entry into a reorganization process favors its success. Originality/value – While financial and accounting information is used across the literature to predict insolvency events, it is used here to predict success or failure in reorganization processes under the conditions imposed by a specific legislative act in a Latin American context.Publication Open Access The role of female directors in family firms' annual report's readability(Emerald, 2024) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Garcés Galdeano, Lucía; Martínez García, Beatriz; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEPurpose: this paper investigates the impact of board gender diversity on the readability of the annual reports of family-controlled public companies. Design/methodology/approach: grounded in the premises of the restricted and extended views of the socioemotional wealth (SEW) approach and executive power theory, this paper explores the ways in which family-affiliated female directors influence report readability in a sample of 133 publicly traded US companies listed in the Fortune 1,000. We use the system GMM estimator, which deals with two key sources of endogeneity by controlling first for reverse causality, using the lags of the endogenous variables as instruments, and then for omitted variables, capturing the individual effect. Findings: our analysis confirms that the significant enhancement in annual report readability is associated with the presence of female family directors, particularly those who are insiders within the company. In contrast, non-family female directors and family outsider directors appear to have a negative impact on annual report readability. Originality/value: while scholars have increasingly focused on variations in annual report readability among family firms, the contribution of female directors to this phenomenon has received minimal attention. In our study, we integrate the theories of restricted and extended SEW perspectives with the theory of women's executive power within the board. This integration is essential for considering two critical factors: firstly, the primacy of their SEW objectives, and, secondly, their legitimacy within the board.Publication Open Access The role of small bettors in price formation in betting exchanges(Routledge, 2020) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Santamaría Aquilué, Rafael; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEThe presence of small bettors in betting exchanges generates mispricing, which can lead to exploitation by informed traders or result in permanent price deviations. This paper shows that mispricing from this source is also dependent upon variables of established relevance such as tournament round, the level of attention to the event, the volume of the betting, and bet type, further confirming these findings by means of cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) curves. It also offers evidence of the relevant role played by the type of device used to place the bet, whereby higher mispricing is observed in live bets placed via a mobile device, which appears to be associated with impulsive betting. This last finding could have practical implications for the regulation of the use of mobile devices to access gambling platforms.Publication Open Access Sovereign debt holdings and banks’ credit risk: evidence from the Eurozone(Elsevier, 2021) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Corredor Casado, María Pilar; Mansilla Fernández, José Manuel; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gestión de EmpresasThis paper investigates the direct effect of sovereign debt holding on banks’ credit risk. Using individual Eurozone listed banks’ information, we find that holding sovereign debt improves the level of banks’ credit risk, but this effect is reversed when the credit risk associated with such debt is taken into account. For this purpose, we consider three alternative sovereign debt holding proxies and two types of banks’ credit-risk measures, both forward- and backward-looking. We find that the transmission of credit risk from sovereign debt holdings to banks’ credit risk is only captured when forward-looking credit-risk measures, based on market data, are used.Publication Open Access Sports betting and the Black-Litterman model: a new portfolio-management perspective(FiT Publishing, 2021) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Campión Arrastia, María Jesús; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Raventós Pujol, Armajac; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEThis paper transfers and adapts the Black-Litterman portfolio management model and its subsequent generalizations to the characteristics and specificities of assets quoted on sports betting markets. The results show that these assets are suitable for the application of portfolio management models with possible inclusion of investors' opinions. Information based on the variability of market prices and the attention received by NBA teams in Google Trends is successfully used to simulate the opinions expressed by a hypothetical portfolio manager. Furthermore, this makes these assets suitable for inclusion in portfolios in which managers are seeking returns uncorrelated with other assets.Publication Open Access Suspense and surprise: the role of bookmakers' spreads(SAGE, 2024-10-16) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Bonilla Acosta, Harold; Muga Caperos, Luis Fernando; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBEUncertainty in a competition's final result can affect the event's demand via suspenseand surprise. Based on a sample of more than 50,000 professional tennis matches, thispaper shows how information from bookmaker prices, implied probabilities, and pricespreads contain relevant information that explains the uncertainty in the final results of the matches. There is a negative relation between the implied probability for the favorite and the different measures of match result uncertainty proposed and a positive rela-tionship between the spread and these measures when the bookmaker sets prices based on information. This second relation disappears when the bookmaker setsprices based on betting volumes. The results have potential implications both for organizers in scheduling matches with higher levels of uncertainty and for punters in settingstrategies that predict the exact result of a match.Publication Open Access Women in power with power: the influence of meaningful board representation on default risk(Elsevier, 2023) Abinzano Guillén, María Isabel; Martínez García, Beatriz; Poletti Hughes, Jannine; Gestión de Empresas; Enpresen Kudeaketa; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa, Research Grant for Young Researchers 2023This paper examines the relationship between the presence of female board members and firms' corporate default risk. We find an inverted “U-shaped” relationship for a sample of 917 firms in 19 emerging markets for the period 2005–2019. We also show that, consistent with critical mass theory, boards need to have three or more female directors to significantly reduce default risk. Furthermore, having female directors with an independent role on the board in countries with less familial dominance, or having female directors with a leadership position, significantly reduces default risk. Finally, we find a positive effect of the interaction between a country's gender inequality and board gender diversity on default risk.