(Elsevier, 2024-10-01) Aguirre Osa, Idoia; Casares Polo, Miguel; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
This study examined the recent inflation episode in the US using an estimated NK-DSGE model with endogenous unemployment fluctuations. We find that the US price inflation accelerated due to a sudden wage increase during the COVID-19 lockdown, the 2021 expansionary monetary policy, and price-push shocks in the quarters of a global surge in energy costs. The disinflation path predicts that further indexing prices or wages to lagged inflation will lead to higher wage inflation and slower price disinflation. Moreover, severely tightening the Fed's monetary policy will only slightly reduce inflation but increase unemployment.