Open Access
More integrated than ever? Long-term market and policy drivers of intra-Asian trade
(Institute for International Economics, Sejong University, 2023) Ayuso Díaz, Alejandro; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
Since the Doha Round stalemate after 2001, trade liberalization has progressed through regional trade agreements (RTAs) and East and Southeast Asia is not unfamiliar with this. Before assessing the effectiveness of recent trade agreements, the long tradition of trade exchange in this region that has lasted for more than 2,000 years necessitates an understanding of the evolution of intra-Asian trade across history. In this regard, this study contributes to the literature examining whether present intra-Asian trade is more or less intense than before 1938. This research outperforms previous studies using a gravity model that controls for changes in GDP and trade costs in the region across four different time periods (between 1840 and 2018). The results show that contemporary regional trade in East and Southeast Asia is slightly less intense than before World War II. A second question addressed is the relevance of trade agreements after the 1985 Plaza Accord on trade integration, compared with market determinants. A second gravity model for regional imports after 1986 is regressed on both policy and market indicators, indicating that the latest wave of intra-Asian trade is characterized by trade complementarities that are fueled by regional foreign direct investment, and free trade agreements are less effective. This result is validated through a network analysis demonstrating the symbiosis between trade and investment flows in the region, which should be considered in RTAs that are in place or in negotiation to take intra-Asian trade beyond its historical limits.
Open Access
Efectos de cambios impositivos en un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado: un análisis de la reforma de 1995
(1999) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de una disminución de los tipos de las cotizaciones sociales, compensada con un incremento en los tipos del impuesto sobre el valor añadido, como la que tuvo lugar en España en 1995. Para ello se utiliza un modelo de equilibrio general aplicado a la economía española, que se presenta en dos versiones: una donde los sectores productivos se modelizan en competencia perfecta, y otra donde los mismos sectores se modelizan como oligopolistas a la Cournot, lo cual nos permite analizar la influencia del supuesto de competencia imperfecta sobre los resultados. Se ha realizado asimismo una simulación adicional aplicando un supuesto de equal yield por el que el déficit público y el nivel de bienestar del sector público se mantienen constantes tras la aplicación de la nueva política, con objeto de aislar los efectos secundarios que se podrían derivar de un cambio en el comportamiento del sector público.
Open Access
Simulating the effects of the European singles market: a CGE analysis for Spain
(2005) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we provide an empirical assessment of two of the measures proposed in the context of the European Single Market, namely, easing the provision of domestic and foreign services, and modifying the rules of public procurement, for the case of Spain. We build and simulate a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which incorporates three particular features: (i) increasing returns to scale and a noncompetitive price rule; (ii) sectoral export demand functions; and (iii) equilibrium unemployment according to a matching function approach.
Open Access
International immigration and mobility across sectors: an exploration of alternative scenarios for Spain
(2001) Ferri, Javier; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Martín Montaner, Joan; Economía; Ekonomia
This paper explores the economic effects of international immigration in Spain by constructing a CGE model. We are mainly concerned about the issue of labor mobility across sectors. In our simulations, we first restrict immigrants to work in a small set of industries receiving wages that are below the native ones, a situation that we call the short run. Then, we consider that immigrants can move freely among all the industries in the economy earning wages on a par with local workers. This we call the long run situation. The results suggest that short run economic performance can be improved by choosing strategic sectors to receive immigrants. We also find evidence that the wage regime is an important parameter to explain the impact both in the short and in the long run.
Open Access
Extensiones de la matriz de contabilidad social de España
(2000) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
Las matrices de contabilidad social son bases de datos específicas para modelos lineales y modelos de equilibrio general aplicado. La adecuación de las matrices para análisis de política económica requiere con frecuencia su modificación, lo que suele ser dificultoso debido a las condiciones de equilibrio contable que se exigen. En este trabajo establecemos unas reglas que amplían el uso de la Matriz de Contabilidad Social del INE a un mayor rango de modelos de análisis y que no varían los equilibrios contables existentes. De esta forma, con el uso conjunto de la matriz del INE y de las reglas, los investigadores podrán llevar a cabo un número mayor de estudios sobre los efectos de un amplio tipo de medidas de política económica en España.
Open Access
Reducing social contributions on unskilled labour as a way of fighting unemployment: an empirical evaluation for the case of Spain
(2001) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we provide an empirical evaluation of the effects of a cut in social security contributions (i) for all types of labour, and (ii) only for unskilled labour, within a computable general equilibrium model simulated for the Spanish economy. The model allows firms to follow a non-competitive price rule, and incorporates an equal yield assumption, which means that the reduction in social security contributions is compensated with an increase in value-added tax rates, so that the public sector deficit is not affected. In addition, the labour market is assumed to follow a matching unemployment rule, which allows to model in a simple way any frictions present in that market.
Open Access
The role of country size and returns to scale in empirical assessments of economic integration: the case of Spain
(2000) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
Empirical assessments of trade policy in single-country models have addressed extensively the assumption of increasing returns to scale versus constant returns to scale, but the alternative assumption of small open economy versus large open economy has not received much attention. This paper provides an evaluation of the relevance of both assumptions (i. e., returns to scale and country size) when analyzing a process of economic integration for a medium-size economy. We conclude that the often neglected country-size assumption might be more relevant for the empirical results than returns to scale.
Open Access
Digitalization, multinationals and employment: an empirical analysis of their causal relationships
(De Gruyter Oldenbourg, 2019) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Latorre, María C.; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
This study measures the effects of digitalization related to Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) investment on employment and other economic variables according to firms' ownership. We present two computable general equilibrium models (with full employment and with unemployment) which differentiate two types of firms: National and foreign multinationals (MNEs). Both types of firms allow for the substitution between labour and ICT capital. We conclude that ICT investments significantly create jobs and raise real wages, GDP and welfare. The aggregate positive effects are stronger for ICT investment in national firms than in foreign MNEs although the sign of some sectoral effects can be negative. We also analyze the role of wage flexibility in this context, with the most favorable results related to scenarios where wages are more rigid for both cases, when investors are national firms or foreign MNEs. The model is applied to the case of Spain, a country with a high unemployment rate where ICT investment has been large since the mid 1990s.
Open Access
A multi-country analysis of austerity policies in the European Union
(Wiley, 2021) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
We analyse the global effects from the austerity policies recently implemented in the EU, by developing an extension of the GTAP general equilibrium model. The extended model incorporates a new specification of the trade balance (i.e. endogenous), the labour market (i.e. unemployment under a wage curve framework) and the public sector (i.e. split from the representative national agent, with endogenous expenditure and savings). Three alternative policies aimed to get a one percentage point reduction in the EU’s government deficit to GDP ratio are simulated, and their effects on the main macroeconomic variables of seven regions of the world economy are examined. The three policy measures led to contractionary effects on the EU’s activity levels, together with changes in income distribution, always detrimental to labour. The effects on the rest of the world, driven by changes in trade flows, were, however, mostly negligible.
Open Access
Public policies and sport participation in Spain and Portugal
(Routledge, 2023) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Lera López, Fernando; Maia, António de Araújo Barros; Economía; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
This chapter examines the transformation and evolution of sports participation that has occurred in Spain and Portugal during the last years and the relevance of the public policies in explaining this evolution. The main areas covered in this chapter include an analysis of the evolution of sports participation in both countries, considering potential similarities. It also discusses the public policies developed in sport by policymakers in both countries and the main laws that regulate this activity. It also examines the distribution of public expenditure in sports within the main levels of public administration in Spain and Portugal. The chapter finishes with a comparison of sports participation and sport public policies developed in both countries.