Open Access
A multi-country analysis of austerity policies in the European Union
(Wiley, 2021) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Economía
We analyse the global effects from the austerity policies recently implemented in the EU, by developing an extension of the GTAP general equilibrium model. The extended model incorporates a new specification of the trade balance (i.e. endogenous), the labour market (i.e. unemployment under a wage curve framework) and the public sector (i.e. split from the representative national agent, with endogenous expenditure and savings). Three alternative policies aimed to get a one percentage point reduction in the EU’s government deficit to GDP ratio are simulated, and their effects on the main macroeconomic variables of seven regions of the world economy are examined. The three policy measures led to contractionary effects on the EU’s activity levels, together with changes in income distribution, always detrimental to labour. The effects on the rest of the world, driven by changes in trade flows, were, however, mostly negligible.
Open Access
Raising the accuracy of shadow economy measurements
(Instituto de Estudios Fiscales, 2021) Ríos Ibáñez, Vicente; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Pascual Arzoz, Pedro; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Gobierno de Navarra / Nafarroako Gobernua
En este artículo se estima el tamaño de la economía sumergida en una región española (Navarra) para el período 1986-2016. Se han empleado métodos macroeconométricos indirectos, como el enfoque de Demanda de efectivo, dos métodos de Consumo de electricidad (inputs físicos) y el enfoque de Múltiples Indicadores y Múltiples Causas (MIMIC). Una característica diferencial del análisis empírico es la incorporación de varias innovaciones metodológicas (por ejemplo, el promediado bayesiano de modelos, un modelo de parámetros que varían en el tiempo, o la normalización de la variable latente) para refinar y aumentar la precisión de medición de cada uno de los métodos indirectos considerados. El patrón temporal del tamaño de la economía sumergida que surge de los diferentes enfoques es similar, lo que sugiere que las estimaciones obtenidas son sólidas y capturan la dinámica subyacente del sector oculto. Después de cuantificar la economía sumergida, se analizan sus determinantes mediante técnicas de promediado bayesiano de modelos. Encontramos que la evolución de la economía sumergida en Navarra puede explicarse por un conjunto pequeño y robusto de factores: la carga fiscal, el empleo en el sector de la construcción, la tasa de inflación, la pertenencia a la zona euro y la ratio del efectivo fuera de los bancos en relación a M1.
Open Access
La eficiencia energética, el efecto rebote y el crecimiento económico
(Funcas, 2016) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Arocena Garro, Pablo; Peña Vidondo, Sofía; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE
El trabajo revisa la relación entre la mejora de la eficiencia energética y el efecto rebote, así como el impacto que cabe anticipar sobre el consumo de energía y el crecimiento en la economía española.
Open Access
Extensiones de la matriz de contabilidad social de España
(2000) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
Las matrices de contabilidad social son bases de datos específicas para modelos lineales y modelos de equilibrio general aplicado. La adecuación de las matrices para análisis de política económica requiere con frecuencia su modificación, lo que suele ser dificultoso debido a las condiciones de equilibrio contable que se exigen. En este trabajo establecemos unas reglas que amplían el uso de la Matriz de Contabilidad Social del INE a un mayor rango de modelos de análisis y que no varían los equilibrios contables existentes. De esta forma, con el uso conjunto de la matriz del INE y de las reglas, los investigadores podrán llevar a cabo un número mayor de estudios sobre los efectos de un amplio tipo de medidas de política económica en España.
Open Access
Las cotizaciones sociales en España y la Unión Europea: simulando algunas posibles reformas
(FUNCAS, 2019) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de una reducción de las cotizaciones sociales a cargo de los empresarios, acompañada o no de un incremento en los tipos de los impuestos indirectos, utilizando la metodología del equilibrio general aplicado en el marco de un modelo multipaís. Los resultados muestran que un descenso de un 10 por 100 en las cotizaciones sociales se traduciría en unos incrementos moderados en los niveles del PIB y empleo de la economía española, con una reducción de la tasa de desempleo de aproximadamente medio punto. Los efectos serían cuantitativamente menores si la reducción de las cotizaciones sociales viene acompañada de un incremento en la imposición indirecta. Cuando la reducción de cotizaciones sociales se lleva a cabo en la UE-14, sus efectos sobre la economía española solamente son significativos, aunque de pequeña magnitud, en el caso de plena movilidad internacional de factores productivos.
Open Access
The role of country size and returns to scale in empirical assessments of economic integration: the case of Spain
(2000) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
Empirical assessments of trade policy in single-country models have addressed extensively the assumption of increasing returns to scale versus constant returns to scale, but the alternative assumption of small open economy versus large open economy has not received much attention. This paper provides an evaluation of the relevance of both assumptions (i. e., returns to scale and country size) when analyzing a process of economic integration for a medium-size economy. We conclude that the often neglected country-size assumption might be more relevant for the empirical results than returns to scale.
Open Access
Simulating the effects of the European singles market: a CGE analysis for Spain
(2005) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia
In this paper we provide an empirical assessment of two of the measures proposed in the context of the European Single Market, namely, easing the provision of domestic and foreign services, and modifying the rules of public procurement, for the case of Spain. We build and simulate a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which incorporates three particular features: (i) increasing returns to scale and a noncompetitive price rule; (ii) sectoral export demand functions; and (iii) equilibrium unemployment according to a matching function approach.
Open Access
Austerity and asymmetries in the fiscal policies of the Eurozone: the case of Southern Europe
(Springer, 2025-04-23) Bajo Rubio, Óscar; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Economía; Ekonomia; Institute for Advanced Research in Business and Economics - INARBE; Universidad Pública de Navarra / Nafarroako Unibertsitate Publikoa
In this paper, we analyse the effects of several austerity policies implemented by the Southern European countries, i.e., Portugal, Italy, Greece, and Spain on the economies of the European Union and the rest of the world. In particular, we simulate the reduction in one point in the government deficit-to-GDP ratio in each of these countries, through several alternative policies, both from the spending side and the revenue side. The empirical methodology is based on a computable general equilibrium model, which incorporates the backward sectoral linkages and inter-country flows generated by fiscal consolidations. Our results show that these austerity policies were generally more painful, in terms of a fall in the levels of activity and a worsening in income distribution for labour, in the scenarios of tax increases rather than in those based on spending cuts. The effects on the rest of the European Union and the rest of the world were however mostly negligible.
Open Access
When multinationals leave: a CGE analysis of the impact of divestments
(Kiel Institute for World Economy, 2014) Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Latorre, María C.; Economía; Ekonomia
Most studies on Multinational Enterprises (MNEs) focus on the impact of their expansion through inward or outward foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. However, divestments are quite common among the operations of MNEs. In order to derive their effects, we build a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that includes two non-standard characteristics: the presence of MNEs and unemployment. The model is applied to the Spanish economy, where FDI inflows have surpassed divestments at the aggregate level in the period 2005-2009, although divestments have been sizeable in ten sectors. We analyse two different scenarios: 1) divestments that involve the closure of plants of foreign affiliates and 2) divestments where national firms buy the plant of foreign affiliates. The model allows estimating the overall impact of the divestments occurring simultaneously in ten sectors and in particular sectors. Results not only show that national acquisitions are less harmful than closures, but quantify those effects, and provide information on the role of the divesting sector. Some adjustment costs arise in all scenarios.
Open Access
International immigration and mobility across sectors: an exploration of alternative scenarios for Spain
(2001) Ferri, Javier; Gómez Gómez-Plana, Antonio; Martín Montaner, Joan; Economía; Ekonomia
This paper explores the economic effects of international immigration in Spain by constructing a CGE model. We are mainly concerned about the issue of labor mobility across sectors. In our simulations, we first restrict immigrants to work in a small set of industries receiving wages that are below the native ones, a situation that we call the short run. Then, we consider that immigrants can move freely among all the industries in the economy earning wages on a par with local workers. This we call the long run situation. The results suggest that short run economic performance can be improved by choosing strategic sectors to receive immigrants. We also find evidence that the wage regime is an important parameter to explain the impact both in the short and in the long run.